Autor Cointelegraph By Rakesh Upadhyay

The United States equities markets have been under a firm bear grip for a large part of the year. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite have declined for three quarters in a row, a first since 2009. There was no respite in selling in September and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is on track to record its worst September since 2002. These figures outline the kind of carnage that exists in the equities market.Compared to these disappointing figures, Bitcoin (BTC) and select altcoins have not given up much ground in September. This is the first sign that selling could be drying up at lower levels and long-term investors may have started bottom fishing.Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360In the final quarter of the year, investors will continue to focus on the inflation data. Any indication of inflation topping could bring about a sharp recovery in risk assets, but if inflation remains stubbornly high, then a round of sell-offs could follow.Let’s study the charts of the S&P 500 index, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) and the major cryptocurrencies to determine if a recovery is on the cards.SPXThe S&P 500 index (SPX) has been under intense selling pressure for the past few days but the bulls have held their ground. This indicates that bulls are buying the dips near 3,636.SPX daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe first resistance on the upside is 3,737. If bulls thrust the price above this level, the index could rise to the 20-day exponential moving average (3,818). In a downtrend, this is the important level to keep an eye on because a break and close above it will suggest that the bears may be losing their grip. Sharp declines are usually followed by strong rallies. That could carry the index to the downtrend line and then to the 50-day simple moving average (4,012).The bears are likely to have other plans. They will try to extend the downtrend by sinking and sustaining the price below 3,636. If they manage to do that, the index could plummet to 3,500 and later to 3,325.DXYThe U.S. dollar index surged to 114.77 on Sept. 28, which pushed the relative strength index (RSI) into deeply overbought territory. This may have attracted profit-booking by the short-term traders which pulled the price near the 20-day EMA (111).DXY daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bears will have to yank the price below the 20-day EMA to suggest that the bullish momentum could be weakening. That could clear the path for a possible drop to the 50-day SMA (108). The zone between the 50-day SMA and the uptrend line is likely to witness aggressive buying by the bulls because if they fail to defend the zone, it will indicate that the index may have topped out.On the other hand, if the price turns up from the current level or rebounds off the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the bulls continue to buy on dips. Buyers will then again attempt to thrust the price above 114.77 and resume the uptrend. The next target objective on the upside is 118. BTC/USDTBitcoin bounced off the strong support at $18,626 on Sept. 28, indicating that the bulls continue to fiercely defend this level. The long tail on the candlestick of the past two days shows that bulls are buying the intraday dips.BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bulls pushed the price above the 20-day EMA ($19,602) on Sept. 30 but are struggling to sustain the higher levels. This shows that bears are selling near the 50-day SMA ($20,621). If bulls do not allow the price to drop below the 20-day EMA, the likelihood of a rally to the downtrend line increases. The bears are expected to mount a strong resistance at this level but if bulls clear this hurdle, the BTC/USDT pair could signal a short-term trend change. The pair could then rise to $22,799.Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the current level or the 50-day SMA ($20,625), the pair could again drop to the $18,626 to $17,622 support zone.ETH/USDTEther (ETH) has been declining in a descending channel pattern for the past several days. In the short term, the price has been stuck between $1,250 and $1,410, indicating demand at lower levels but selling near the resistance.ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe price action inside the range is usually random and volatile. Hence, it is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout with certainty. If the price breaks above $1,410, it will suggest that the bulls have absorbed the supply. That could propel the price to the resistance line of the channel. The bulls will have to overcome this barrier to suggest a potential trend change.On the other hand, if the price turns down and breaks below $1,250, the bears will attempt to cement their advantage by pulling the ETH/USDT pair below the channel. If they succeed, the pair could drop to $1,000.BNB/USDTBinance Coin (BNB) turned up sharply from $266 and broke above the 20-day EMA ($278) on Sept. 28. This indicates that lower levels are attracting strong buying by the bulls.BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bulls pushed the price above the resistance line of the descending channel on Sept. 29 but are facing resistance at the 50-day SMA ($288). If bulls do not allow the price to plummet back below the 20-day EMA, it will improve the prospects of a break above the 50-day SMA. The BNB/USDT pair could then rally to $300 and later to $338.On the contrary, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears continue to sell at higher levels. The pair could then decline to the strong support at $258.XRP/USDTXRP rebounded off the 20-day EMA ($0.43) on Sept. 28, indicating a change in sentiment from selling on rallies to buying on dips. However, the bears are unlikely to give up as they will try to stall the recovery in the $0.52 to $0.56 zone.XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewIf buyers do not give up much ground from the current level, the possibility of a break above the overhead zone increases. A break above $0.56 will signal the resumption of the uptrend. The XRP/USDT pair could then rise to $0.66.Conversely, if the price continues lower, the pair could drop to the breakout level of $0.41. The bulls are likely to defend this level vigorously. If the price rebounds off this level, the pair may enter a range-bound action for a few days.ADA/USDT The long tail on Cardano’s (ADA) Sept. 28 and 29 candlestick shows that the bulls bought at lower levels in an attempt to defend the uptrend line. Although the price rose above the uptrend line on Sept. 29, buyers could not sustain the recovery.ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe price has again tumbled below the uptrend line on Sept. 30. The downsloping moving averages and the RSI in the negative territory suggest that the path of least resistance is to the downside. If the price breaks below $0.42, the ADA/USDT pair could decline to the crucial support at $0.40. The bulls are expected to defend this level with vigor.Contrarily, if the price turns up from the current level and closes above the uptrend line, it will suggest strong buying at lower levels. The bulls will then again try to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.45) and challenge the resistance at the 50-day SMA ($0.47).Related: Bitcoin surges above $20K after 6% BTC rally gains steam ahead of the monthly closeSOL/USDTBuyers are attempting to form a higher low in Solana (SOL). The price rebounded off $31.65 on Sept. 28 and reached the 50-day SMA ($34.70) on Sept. 30.SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe 20-day EMA ($33.30) is trying to turn up and the RSI is just above the midpoint, suggesting that the bulls are attempting a comeback. If the price breaks and sustains above the 50-day SMA, the bullish momentum could pick up and the SOL/USDT pair could rally to $39. The bears are expected to mount a strong resistance at this level.Alternatively, if the price turns down from the 50-day SMA, the pair could drop to $31.65. A break below this support could sink the pair to $30.DOGE/USDTDogecoin (DOGE) dipped below the 20-day EMA ($0.06) on Sept. 25 and the bears thwarted attempts by the bulls to resume the recovery on Sept. 27.DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe 20-day EMA is flattish and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. This balance could tilt in favor of the bears if they sink the price below the support near $0.06. The price could then plunge to $0.05.The bulls will gain the upper hand if they drive and sustain the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.06). The DOGE/USDT pair could then attempt a rally to $0.07 where the bears may again mount a stiff resistance.DOT/USDTPolkadot (DOT) has been trading in a tight range between $6 and $6.64 for the past few days. This indicates a tough battle between the bulls and the bears. DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe gradually downsloping moving averages and the RSI in the negative territory suggest that bears have a slight edge. If the price drops below $6, the DOT/USDT pair could start the next leg of the downtrend. The pair could then slide to $4.To invalidate this negative bias, bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA ($6.64). If they do that, it will suggest that the consolidation near the support may have been an accumulation phase. The pair could then rise to the 50-day SMA ($7.26) and later to $8.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

The S&P 500 index has declined about 5% this week while the Nasdaq Composite is down more than 5.5%. Investors fear that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes could cause an economic downturn. The yield curve between the two-year and 10-year Treasury notes, which is watched closely by analysts for predicting a recession, has inverted the most since the year 2000. Among all the mayhem, it is encouraging to see that Bitcoin (BTC) has outperformed both the major indexes and has fallen less than 4% in the week. Could this be a sign that Bitcoin’s bottom may be close by?Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360On-chain data shows that the amount of Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders in losses reached about 30%, which is 2% to 5% below the level that coincided with Bitcoin’s bottom in March 2020 and December 2018. This metric suggests that Bitcoin could have more room to fall before it bottoms out. Let’s study the charts of the S&P 500 index, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) and the major cryptocurrencies to determine whether the trend will continue or if a reversal is likely.SPXThe S&P 500 index (SPX) broke below the 3,900 support on Sept. 16 and the bears successfully defended the level on retests on Sept. 17 and 21. Hence, this becomes an important level to keep an eye on as a break above 3,900 will be the first sign that bulls are on a comeback. SPX daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe downsloping 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) (3,920) indicates an advantage to bears but the relative strength index (RSI) in the oversold territory suggests that the index may attempt a rebound from the strong support zone between 3,715 and 3,636.A weak rebound off this zone will indicate a lack of aggressive buying by the bulls. That could increase the possibility of a decline below the crucial June low at 3,636. If this support collapses, the index could plunge toward 3,325.On the contrary, a strong rebound off the support zone could result in a recovery to 3,900. A break above this resistance could signal a potential trend change in the near term.DXYThe U.S. dollar index (DXY) has been in a strong uptrend for the past few months. Every dip is being purchased aggressively and the index continues to scale new heights. Attempts by the bears to force a trend change failed when the price rebounded off the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($108) on Sept. 13.DXY daily chart. Source: TradingViewAfter staying in a tight range for a few days, the index broke out to a new 52-week high on Sept. 21. This resumed the uptrend and the index could next attempt a rally to 115.The sharp rally of the past few days has pushed the RSI into the overbought zone, which suggests a minor consolidation or correction is possible in the next few days.The 20-day EMA (109) is an important support to watch for on the downside because a break below it could sink the price to the 50-day SMA. The bears will have to pull the price below 107 to indicate a possible trend change in the near term.BTC/USDTBuyers have been buying the dip below $18,626 in Bitcoin but the failure to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($19,841) shows that bears are in no mood to let go of their advantage. This increases the possibility of a retest of the vital June low at $17,622.BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewA break and close below $17,622 could create panic and the BTC/USDT pair may plummet to the next major support at $14,500.While the downsloping moving averages indicate advantage to bears, the positive divergence on the RSI suggests that the selling pressure could be reducing. This view could strengthen if bulls drive and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA. That could push the price toward the overhead resistance zone between the 50-day SMA (21,200) and $22,799. Such a move will suggest that the pair may continue its bottoming formation inside the large range between $17,622 and $25,211 for longer.ETH/USDTEther (ETH) has been trading inside a descending channel pattern for the past few days. In a channel, traders usually buy near the support and sell close to the resistance.ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bears tried to sink the price below the channel on Sept. 21 but the bulls defended the level successfully. The bulls will try to push the price to the 20-day EMA ($1,467) where they may face stiff resistance from the bears.If the price turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on every minor rally. The bears will then again try to pull the price below the channel and challenge the psychological support at $1,000.Contrarily, if the price rises above the 20-day EMA, the pair could reach the resistance line of the channel. A break and close above the channel could suggest a potential trend change.BNB/USDTBNB has been oscillating between the 20-day EMA ($276) and $258 for the past few days. This shows that the bulls are defending the immediate support at $258 but they have failed to push the price above the 20-day EMA.BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThis tight-range trading is unlikely to continue for long. If buyers propel the price above the 20-day EMA, the BNB/USDT pair could rise to the resistance line of the descending channel. The bulls will have to overcome this obstacle to suggest that the corrective phase may be over. The pair could then attempt a rally to $338.If the price turns down from the current level or the resistance line of the channel, the bears will again try to sink the pair below $258. If they manage to do that, the pair could decline to the support line.XRP/USDTXRP broke above the $0.41 overhead resistance on Sept. 20. The bears tried to trap the aggressive bulls on Sept. 21 but the buyers had other plans. They purchased the dip with vigor and thrust the price above the overhead resistance on Sept. 22.XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe pattern target of the break from the $0.30 to $0.41 range was $0.52 and the same was reached on Sept. 23. This sharp move pushed the RSI into the overbought territory, suggesting a minor correction or consolidation in the near term. The long wick on the Sept. 23 candlestick shows profit-booking at higher levels.Usually, after the breakout from a range, the price tends to retest the breakout level. In this case, the price could drop to $0.41. If bulls flip this level into support, the XRP/USDT will try to resume the up-move. If the price rises above $0.56, the next stop could be $0.66. On the other hand, a break below $0.41 could suggest that the recent breakout was a bear trap.ADA/USDT Cardano (ADA) bounced off the uptrend line on Sept. 22, indicating that bulls are defending this level with vigor. The price reached near the downtrend line on Sept. 23 but the long wick on the candlestick shows that bears are active at higher levels.ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe 20-day EMA ($0.46) has started to turn down and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating a minor advantage to bears. If the price continues lower and plummets below the uptrend line, the ADA/USDT pair could drop to $0.40. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because a break below it could resume the downtrend.If bulls want to gain the upper hand, they will have to drive and sustain the price above the downtrend line. The pair could then rise to $0.60 where the bears may again mount a stiff resistance.Related: XRP hits 13-month high versus Bitcoin with 35% daily surge — But is a correction inevitable?SOL/USDTSolana (SOL) has been getting squeezed between the 20-day EMA ($33) and the immediate support at $30. This indicates a state of equilibrium between buyers and sellers.SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThis uncertainty is unlikely to continue for long. The bears will try to seize control by pulling the price below $30. If that happens, the SOL/USDT pair could drop to the strong support at $26. The bulls are expected to defend this level aggressively because if this support cracks, the SOL/USDT pair could witness panic selling and drop toward $20.To invalidate this negative view in the short term, buyers will have to drive the price above the moving averages and the overhead resistance at $39. If they succeed, the pair could rally to $48.DOGE/USDTBuyers bought the dip below the immediate support on Sept. 21 but they are struggling to sustain Dogecoin (DOGE) above the 20-day EMA ($0.06) on Sept. 23. This suggests that bears continue to sell on rallies.DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bears will attempt to increase their advantage by sinking the price below the immediate support near $0.06. If they do that, the DOGE/USDT pair could extend its decline to the June low at $0.05. This is a pivotal level because a break below it could indicate the start of the next leg of the downtrend.Conversely, if the price sustains above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($0.07). If bulls pierce this resistance, the pair could rally toward $0.09.DOT/USDTBuyers successfully defended the critical support of $6 on sept. 21 and 22 but the shallow bounce suggests that demand dries up at higher levels. The longer Polkadot (DOT) trades below the 20-day EMA (6.87), the greater the possibility of a break below $6.DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewIf bears sink and sustain the price below $6, the selling momentum could pick up and the DOT/USDT pair could resume its downtrend. The next major support on the downside is at $4.Alternatively, if the price rebounds off $6 or turns up sharply after breaking below the support, it will suggest that bulls continue to buy at lower levels. The bulls will have to propel the price above the moving averages to clear the path for a possible up-move to $10, which is again likely to act as a barrier.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.