Autor Cointelegraph By Marcel Pechman

Bitcoin and altcoins took a hit, but derivatives data reflects a calmer market

Looking at the winners and losers of the past week clearly shows that traders endured some serious heat as the total crypto market capitalization dropped by 12.7% when Bitcoin fell to $41,000. This sharp downside move knocked the figure from $2.37 trillion to $1.92 trillion on Dec. 3 and a total of $2 billion long future contracts were liquidated.Top winners and losers from top 80 coins. Source: NomicsBitcoin (BTC) price retraced 14.6% over the past week, effectively underperforming the broader altcoin market. Part of this unusual movement can be explained by the performance seen in decentralized applications which held up better than most of the market. Data shows Ether (ETH) traded down 6.0%, Binance Coin (BNB) lost 7.3% and Solana (SOL) dropped by 7.8%.This week’s top gainers include OKEx’s OKB token (OKB) and Bitfinex’s UNUS (LEO). Perhaps these benefited from not having a United States entity because the regulatory uncertainties in the region continue to increase. Moreover, scaling solutions Polygon (MATIC) and Algorand (ALGO) benefited from Ethereum’s $40 or higher network transaction fees.Terra (LUNA) featured on last week’s top performers after its built-in token burn mechanism significantly reduced the supply. Meanwhile, Stacks (STX), previously known as Blockstacks, pumped after D’Cent wallet included support for SIP010 tokens.Sharing solutions had a disappointing weekAmong the worst performers were three decentralized sharing solutions: Theta Network (THETA), Filecoin (FILE), and Internet Computer (ICP). They were not alone, as some of the sectors’ altcoins below the top-80 also crashed. Siacoin (S.C.) endured a 34% drawdown and Ankr Network (ANKR) dropped by 31.8%. Chiliz (CHZ) suffered direct competition after Binance successfully launched an independent soccer fan token called SANTOS. Initially, Chiliz’ platform was created to host exclusive promos, services and voting for their fan tokens and more recently the project ventured into the non-fungible NFT market. However, that initiative also lost impact after soccer player Neymar launched a collection with NFTStar.Despite being among the bottom performers, decentralized exchange aggregator 1inch Network (1INCH) concluded a $175 million Series B investment round and these funds will be used to expand the protocol’s utility.Tether’s premium and the futures’ perpetual premium held up wellThe OKEx Tether (USDT) premium measures the difference between China-based peer-to-peer (P2P) trades and the official U.S. dollar currency, and in the past week it decreased slightly.OKEx USDT peer-to-peer premium vs. USD. Source: OKExCurrently the indicator has a 98% reading, which is slightly bearish, signaling weak demand from crypto traders to convert cash into stablecoins. Even at its best moment over the past two months, it failed to surpass 99%, so Chinese players have not been excited about the general market.The overall impact of last week’s correction was a drop in the total futures open interest, down 28% to $16.7 billion. Nevertheless, the move was expected since the total market cap retraced and some $3.9 billion worth of liquidations took place during the week.More importantly, the funding rates on Bitcoin and Ethereum futures quickly recovered from Dec. 3 price crash. Even though longs (buyers) and shorts (sellers) are matched at all times in any futures contract, their leverage varies.Consequently, to balance their risk, exchanges will charge a funding rate to whichever side is using more leverage and this fee is paid to the opposing side.BTC and ETH perpetual futures 8-hour funding rates. Source: Coinglass.comData reveals that a modest bearish trend occurred on Dec. 3 and 4 as the 8-hour funding rate went below zero. A negative funding rate shows that shorts (seller) were the ones paying the fees, but the movement faded as soon as BTC and ETH prices bounced 15% from their lows.The above data might not sound encouraging, but considering that Bitcoin suffered considerable losses this week, the overall market structure held nicely. If the situation was worse, one would definitively not expect a 99% Tether premium or a positive perpetual funding rate.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Regulatory fears put a damper on Ethereum traders’ $5,000 target

This week Ether (ETH) price came within 2% of its all-time high, and on Dec. 2 the altcoin reached its highest price in Bitcoin (BTC) terms since May 2018. Ether hitting 0.0835 in its BTC pair represents a 229% gain for 2021, but Ether bulls might come out empty-handed from this Friday’s $680 million options expiry.ETH/BTC price at FTX. Source: TradingViewNotice the ascending channel formation initiated in mid-October, which likely reflects the network’s $177 billion total value locked in smart contracts (TVL). Moreover, Ether’s ETH 2.0 beacon chain balance reached an 8.45 million high, which is a 4.5% increase in November.Last week, four Ethereum blockchain-based metaverse projects generated more than $100 million worth of virtual land in nonfungible token (NFT) sales last week, according to reporting by Cointelegraph.However, Ether investors might be concerned about the United States Lower House meeting scheduled for Dec. 8 where the committee will focus on “Digital Assets and the Future of Finance.” Stablecoin issuers and exchange CEOs have been invited, so there’s some potential heat coming from the threat of new regulation.Regardless of the rationale behind ETH’s current 6% ETH price drop, bulls missed the opportunity to secure a $80 profit in Dec. 3 weekly options expiry.Ether options aggregate open interest for Dec. 3. Source: Coinglass.comA broader view using the call-to-put ratio shows a 19% advantage to bears as the $375 million put (sell) instruments have a larger open interest versus the $305 million call (buy) options. The 0.81 indicator is deceptive because the 49% bull run since September caused most of the bearish bets to become worthless.For example, if Ether’s price remains above $4,400 at 8:00 am UTC on Dec. 3, only $68 million worth of those put (sell) options will be available. Therefore, there is no value in the right to sell Ether at $4,400 if it is trading above that price.Bulls are unfazed after today’s 4% price dropBelow are the three most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of option contracts available on Dec.3 for bulls (call) and bear (put) instruments vary depending on the expiry ETH price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:Between $4,300 and $4,500: 11,300 calls vs. 15,400 puts. The net result is balanced.Between $4,500 and $4,700: 21,700 calls vs. 7,300 puts. The net result is $65 million favoring the call (bull) instruments.Above $4,700: 26,000 calls vs. 5,000 puts. The net result is $100 million favoring the call (bull) instruments.This crude estimate considers call options being used in bullish bets and put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.For instance, a trader could have sold a call option, effectively gaining a negative exposure to Ether above a specific price. But, unfortunately, there’s no easy way to estimate this effect.Bulls need $4,700 to secure a decent-sized profitEther bulls need a 4.7% move from $4,500 to $4,700 to score a $100 million profit. On the other hand, bears simply need to keep Ether price below $4,500 to avoid any losses.As the ETH/BTC chart indicates, there’s some decoupling gaining traction, which might favor Ether holders. Despite the incentives for pushing Ether price above $4,700 ahead of Friday’s expiry, this favourable outcome for bulls seems somewhat distant.Could bears save this week’s options expiry and avoid a $100 million loss? Possibly.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Victory is for the taking in Friday’s $950M Bitcoin options expiry

Bitcoin (BTC) price is down this week, and naturally, bears will always find some reversal signal whenever the price shows strength, such as the 8% gain on Nov. 28. Of course, technical analysis is not an exact science, so there is a margin for interpretation and most traders look at multiple timeframes to find a narrative that suits their bias. Currently, BTC price is in a descending channel that started on Oct. 31, and if this pattern plays out, Bitcoin could drop to $50,000 in the short term.Bitcoin/USD price on FTX. Source: TradingViewCryptocurrency markets crashed on Nov. 26 after concern over a new COVID-19 variant sparked a global market sell-off. As Bitcoin dipped below $54,000, bears saw a $215 million potential profit on Dec. 3’s options expiry, but that changed after BTC price regained the $57,000 support.Furthermore, regulatory concerns coming from the United States continue to pressure the market. On Nov. 24, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee chair sought information from stablecoin issuers and exchanges by Dec. 3.In early November, the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets released a report suggesting that stablecoin issuers in the United States should be subject to “appropriate federal oversight” similar to that legislated for banks.Fueled by the potential government interference and negative short-term consequences, Bitcoin bears are likely to profit $80 million on Dec. 3 options expiry.Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Dec. 3. Source: Coinglass.comAt first sight, the $460 million call (buy) options are evenly matched with the $485 million put (sell) instruments, but the 0.96 call-to-put ratio is deceptive because the 17% price drop from $69,000 will likely wipe out most of the bullish bets.For example, if Bitcoin’s price remains below $57,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Dec. 3, only $24 million worth of those call (buy) options will be available at the expiry. Therefore, there is no value in the right to buy Bitcoin at $60,000 if it is trading below that price.Bears are comfortable with Bitcoin below $57,000Listed below are the four most likely scenarios for the $950 million Dec. 3 options expiry. The imbalance favoring each side represents the theoretical profit. In other words, depending on the expiry price, the quantity of call (buy) and put (sell) contracts becoming active varies:Between $54,000 and $56,000: 290 calls vs. 3,480 puts. The net result is $175 million favoring the put (bear) options.Between $56,000 and $58,000: 750 calls vs. 2,160 puts. The net result is $80 million favoring the put (bear) instruments.Between $58,000 and $60,000: 1,510 calls vs. 1,040 puts. The net result is $30 million favoring the call (bull) options.Above $60,000: 2,760 calls vs. 860 puts. The net result is $115 million favoring the call (bull) instruments.This crude estimate considers call options being used in bullish bets and put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. However, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.For instance, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining a positive exposure to Bitcoin (BTC) above a specific price. But, unfortunately, there’s no easy way to estimate this effect.Bulls need $58,000 or higher to balance the scalesThe only way for bulls to avoid a loss on Dec. 3’s expiry is by pushing Bitcoin’s price above $58,000, which is 2% away from the current $56,900. However, if the current short-term negative sentiment prevails, bears could exert some pressure and try to score up to $175 million in profit if Bitcoin price stays below $56,000.Currently, options markets data slightly favor the put (sell) options, thus creating opportunities for additional FUD and surprise market crashes.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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