Autor Cointelegraph By Marcel Pechman

Key takeaways:BitMine’s aggressive ETH accumulation has reinforced the $1,500 support despite $8B unrealized losses.Glamsterdam upgrade and Robinhood Chain launch signal stronger TradFi focus for Ethereum’s base layer.Ether (ETH) price rallied 15% in five days, distancing itself from the $1,500 low hit on June 26. Part of the improvement in investor sentiment can be pinned to the final tests on Ethereum’s Glamsterdam upgrade, targeted for later in 2026. Moreover, BitMine Immersion Technologies’ continued Ether accumulation helped strengthen the support level. Will $2,000 come next?Total crypto capitalization/USD (left) vs. ETH/USD (right). Source: TradingViewEther outperformed the total crypto market capitalization by 7% over the past 30 days. Some excitement came from optimism about the passage of the Digital Assets CLARITY Act, a bill that has faced several hurdles advancing in Congress after pushback from the banking sector on stablecoin regulation and potential rewards to its holders.ETH options 25% delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: LaevitasEther’s recent rally toward $1,800 was enough to instill some confidence in ETH options markets as the skew (put-call) metric exited the fear levels that prevailed until Friday. The current 9% premium in put (sell) options relative to equivalent call (buy) instruments is far from bullish, but it distances itself from the 15% mark from the prior week. Levels above 12% typically indicate extreme fear.Ethereum network upgrade, Robinhood Chain behind ETH price rallyOne of Ethereum’s main criticisms lies in its scalability using layer-2 rollups facilitated by data packages (blobs) that drastically reduced transaction fees but triggered fierce debates over long-term data censorship and centralization. Base layer network fees took a hit, which in turn reduced ETH burning and ultimately led to inflationary supply dynamics.Ethereum base layer monthly network revenue, USD. Source: DefiLlamaThe Ethereum Glamsterdam upgrade, currently in the testing phase, should improve network processing speeds by allowing more transactions to be processed in parallel. The proposal will also expand capacity for Ethereum to handle more data at higher throughput and reduce database bloat. One goal is providing institutional-grade infrastructure for financial use cases.BitMine (BMNR US) ETH holdings and shares outstanding. Source: bmnr.rocksThe continued accumulation by the US-listed company BitMine Immersion has likely helped strengthen the $1,500 support. The company increased its holdings by 325,000 ETH over the past month, boosting its reserves to 5.74 million ETH. Regardless of the current $8 billion in unrealized losses on its ETH holdings, BitMine continues its path toward acquiring 5% of the existing supply.Related: Vitalik Buterin shares priorities for new ‘Lean Ethereum’ strawmapThe launch of Robinhood Chain on July 2, an EVM-compatible Ethereum layer-2 built using Arbitrum technology, helped consolidate the ecosystem with the traditional finance industry. More importantly, Robinhood rolled out tokenized stock trading in more than 120 countries along with major decentralized finance (DeFi) integrations, including Uniswap, 1inch and Morpho.While Ethereum onchain and derivatives metrics paint a somewhat bearish picture with low network fees and low conviction in options markets, Ether’s upside comes from real-world traditional finance use case growth and network upgrades capable of significantly expanding base layer capacity. Overall, the path to ETH at $2,000 appears entirely viable in the near term.

Key takeaways:Bitcoin derivatives show resilience despite bearish pressure from Strategy’s Bitcoin sales.Onchain Bitcoin data points to sellers’ exhaustion, strengthening the $60,000 support level.Bitcoin price quickly recovered from the selloff to $61,300 that followed Strategy’s Bitcoin sale announcement. Despite the negative impact on traders’ sentiment, the additional $216 million cash position eased concerns about the company’s ability to pay dividends and cover its debt. Does the quick recovery suggest that Bitcoin bulls back in control?Bitcoin perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Source: LaevitasThe Bitcoin perpetual futures annualized funding rate jumped to 9% on Monday, indicating balanced demand between bullish and bearish leverage. While far from displaying conviction, the indicator distanced itself from the bearish momentum on Saturday marked by negative funding rates. But unlike the futures markets, Bitcoin options signaled minor stress on Monday.Bitcoin options premium put-to-call ratio at Deribit. Source: LaevitasThe put (sell) options premium at Deribit outpaced the equivalent call (buy) instruments on Monday, reverting the trend from Thursday and Friday. Typically, periods of stress can easily push the indicator above 2 times, hence the current 1.15 level remains under the neutral range. Bitcoin futures and options displayed resilience, although the bounce to $63,500 was unable to instill bullishness.Bitcoin ETF flows reversal and long-term holders conviction favor $65,000 rallyBitcoin bears might have underestimated the relevance of the $223 million net inflows into US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on Friday, the first after 10 consecutive outflows. The record-high $4.51 billion net outflows in June negatively impacted trader sentiment.Still, the sell pressure will eventually subside, and the potential reversal in ETF flows could be enough to instill bullishness in Bitcoin derivatives markets.US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs daily net flows, USD. Source: SoSoValuePart of the recent bearishness can be pinned to the record drawdown in Strategy preferred perpetual equity Stretch (STRC US), which offers holders an attractive 12% yield. However, new stock issuance can occur only at the fixed $100 price; hence, the company currently has fewer instruments available to support the dividend payout.Strategy holds sufficient cash reserves to cover 17 months of dividends; thus, the urgency of additional Bitcoin sales is debatable.Strategy preferred perpetual equity Stretch (STRC US). Source: TradingViewRegardless of Strategy’s extremely low 8% debt leverage, Bitcoin bears have the upper hand as the company endures $8 billion in unrealized losses from its Bitcoin purchases. Bitcoin bulls’ biggest hopes rely on long-term holders’ conviction and onchain data pointing to selling exhaustion, strengthening the $60,000 support level.Bitcoin transfers from long-term holders to exchanges, BTC. Source: GlassnodeTransfers from long-term holders to exchanges are down to 4,130 BTC per day on average, from 8,040 BTC one week prior. Nonetheless, unless the spot Bitcoin ETFs exhibit a sequence of relevant net inflows, derivatives traders will likely remain skeptical of sustained bullish momentum, reducing the odds of a sustained rally above $65,000.Presently, Strategy’s huge unrealized losses and skepticism in Bitcoin derivatives point to further pressure from bears.

Key takeaways:Solana’s tokenized assets and memecoin revival drove SOL to a 30-day high at $83.Bullish leveraged appetite cooled sharply, suggesting traders are hesitant to bet on further gains to $90.Solana’s SOL token jumped to its highest mark in over 30 days on Friday at $83, marking a decoupling from the altcoin market. SOL’s rally gained steam from a surge in tokenized trading volume on Solana, inflows of stablecoin liquidity, and an unexpected comeback in memecoin activity. Can SOL reclaim the $90 level?Total altcoin market capitalization, USD (left) vs. SOL/USD (right). Source: TradingViewSOL’s bullish momentum ignited on June 23, coinciding with cumulative tokenized stock transfers on Solana surpassing $10 billion. The launch of SpaceX shares trading by Backpack propelled Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) utilization. In contrast, the broader altcoin market extended its downtrend, hitting the lowest level since December 2023.30-day tokenized assets net flows ex-stablecoins, USD. Source: RWA.xyzTokenized assets on the Solana network surged to a record-high $3.5 billion on Wednesday, up from $2.7 billion one month prior. The recent boost came from corporate credit tokens and stock market indexes, such as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100. According to RWA.xyz data, Solana leads with 294,274 active addresses in the tokenized industry, followed by Ethereum with 204,955.Memecoins, prediction markets surge may push SOL toward $90The airdrop of The Black Bull (ANSEM) memecoin on Sunday re-ignited interest in the sector. The token, launched on Pump.fun, reached a $60 million market capitalization on Tuesday. The anonymous developer directed some 65% of the supply to the crypto influencer Ansem’s public wallet. The distribution lacked transparency, but involved 74,000 addresses over the initial 3 days.Top 7-day performances of Solana tokens. Source: CoinRankingMultiple memecoins on Solana surged on the back of the memecoin airdrop, but the biggest winner was the Pump.fun platform token (PUMP). The 27% weekly gains were enough to send PUMP back into the top-100 crypto rankings, with a $630 million market capitalization. ANSEM memecoin extended its gains on Friday, reaching an all-time high market capitalization of $112 million.The launch of World prediction markets integrated on Phantom wallet has created expectations for increased Solana activity. The project gathered nearly $890,000 in total value locked in two days and aims to compete with the extremely successful Polymarket amid the World Cup betting frenzy. Jupiter has also unveiled its prediction markets under beta test on June 29.Related: US dominates Polymarket political bets despite geoblock–ReportSOL perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Source: LaevitasThe appetite for bullish leveraged positions has vastly declined since Wednesday, when SOL’s price crossed above $75 for the first time in 30 days. SOL futures annualized funding rate dropped to 3% on Friday from an 11% peak two days prior. Under neutral conditions, the indicator should range from 6% to 12% to offset the capital cost.Investors are not comfortable betting on a SOL rally to $90 merely on the back of a temporary memecoin demand surge. Unless there is sustainable demand for blockchain activity, there are no apparent drivers for SOL to further widen its performance gap relative to the remaining altcoins.

Key takeaways:Soft US jobs market data triggered a rotation of capital from overheated AI stocks into Bitcoin and gold.Bitcoin onchain indicators hint at seller exhaustion while the decline in oil prices opens room for monetary expansion.Bitcoin reclaimed the $61,000 mark following a disappointing US job market report. Traders grew less certain of a near-term interest rate hike from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) given the worsening labor data. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index sold off, fueling hopes of a capital rotation favoring Bitcoin.Nasdaq 100 Index futures (blue) vs. Bitcoin/USD (orange). Source: TradingViewThe Nasdaq 100 Index erased gains from the three prior days, while Bitcoin distanced itself from Wednesday’s $57,750 low. US non-farm payrolls increased by only 57,000 in June, missing the 113,000 expected, according to Yahoo Finance. The US Labor Department also revised data for April and May downward by 74,000 jobs.Gold prices reacted positively on Thursday, hinting at potential bullish momentum for scarce assets. The weak economic data prompted investors to cut odds of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes by September to 54% from 64% the prior day, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, crude WTI oil prices stabilized below $70, opening the door for possible economic stimulus measuresGold/USD (red) vs. Crude WTI oil (teal). Source: TradingViewOil prices dropped after the Qatar Foreign Ministry cited “positive progress” in the latest round of discussions between US and Iranian representatives on Wednesday. Gold recovered some of the 8% losses accumulated over the prior two weeks, a possible sign that investors anticipate a less tight monetary policy and further FED balance sheet expansion.US Federal Reserve total assets, USD millions. Source: FED St LouisThe Federal Reserve balance sheet stagnated at $6.73 trillion, although its mandate allows for $40 billion monthly purchases in short-term Treasuries and bonds. Weak job market data and reduced inflationary pressure are widely seen as catalysts for accelerated liquidity injection, creating incentives to invest in scarce assets, including gold and Bitcoin.Overheated AI stocks clash with Bitcoin flashing a bottomWeakness in the AI sector, especially among chipmakers, has led traders to anticipate capital shifting toward alternative assets. Shares of SanDisk, Seagate, Western Digital, and Applied Materials saw intraday losses of 9% or higher on Thursday. In contrast, Bitcoin is showing signs of seller exhaustion two months after rejection at $82,500.Related: Bitcoin tops $60K amid Fed inflation talks–Is bull trap or $65K next?Source: X/gaah_imOnchain analyst and CryptoQuant author gaah_im said that Bitcoin’s realized profit-to-loss ratio has hit its lowest level since 2022. The net percentage of supply in profit relative to the total supply has turned negative, which historically has marked cycle bottoms with “extreme precision,” according to the analyst. In essence, onchain data hints at further Bitcoin upside.Part of Bitcoin’s recent weakness stems from traders’ disappointment with Strategy. Despite a healthy 8% net leverage and $56.8 billion in enterprise value, holders faced dilution from accelerated MSTR share issuance used to buy back some debt and cover dividends on preferred stocks.If weakness in the AI sector accelerates, some of that money will likely rotate into gold and Bitcoin, making a near-term recovery to $70,000 possible.

Key takeaways:Persistent spot Bitcoin ETF outflows and US dollar strength reduce the odds of a quick bounce to $65,000.Strong AI sector earnings momentum and higher fixed-income returns pull capital from Bitcoin and gold.Bitcoin (BTC) reacted positively to US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks on stubborn inflation. Despite the gains on Wednesday, traders fear that incentives for fixed-income investments and strong earnings momentum in tech stocks will continue to pressure non-yield-bearing assets like cryptocurrencies.US 5-year Treasury yield (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD. Source: TradingViewThe US 5-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.22%, meaning traders demanded higher returns to hold government bonds. Even as inflation eventually eases and WTI crude oil prices fell to a 4-month low, investors anticipate monetary expansion. Regardless of how the Fed manages interest rates and its balance sheet, the US Treasury dictates debt issuance trends.Implied odds of FED interest rates on Sept. 16. Source: CME FedWatch ToolUS government bond futures implied 64% odds of interest rate hikes by September, up from 23% one month prior. The higher expected return on fixed-income investments came as the US dollar strengthened against other major global fiat currencies, which is especially concerning for alternative hedges such as gold and Bitcoin.Gold/USD (left) vs. US dollar strength (DXY). Source: TradingViewDespite the gains on Wednesday, gold prices are down 12% in two months, while the US dollar strength (DXY) nears its highest mark in one year. This vote of confidence in the US economy partly stems from AI sector strength, evident in the 25% gains in the Nasdaq 100 index. However, some specific tech sub-sectors have recently signaled weakness, which could act as a catalyst for Bitcoin and gold.Could the AI sector cool off act as a catalyst for Bitcoin?Micron (MU US) and SanDisk (SNDK US) shares saw intraday losses exceeding 9% on Wednesday after competitors SK Hynix (000660 KR) and Samsung (005930 KR) announced plans to expand capacity. Still, the move can hardly be deemed a trend reversal as the iShares SOX Semiconductor Index ETF (SOXX US) gained 78% in three months.Continued outflows from US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have shattered bulls’ hopes, reinforcing a negative price spiral as negative news gets amplified while positive events barely register. US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs daily net flows, USD. Source: SoSoValueRegardless of the rationale behind the sales, Bitcoin’s weakness, 53% below its all-time high, does not inspire confidence in the $60,000 support level.Strategy (MSTR US) increased its cash position to restore a healthy 17 months of dividend coverage on Monday. However, Strategy’s variable-rate Stretch preferred stock (STRC US) continued to trade far from the $100 target required for additional issuances. The STRC dividend rose to 12% from 11.5%, which was apparently not enough to entice more buyers.Related: Bitcoin just $5K away from ‘best investment opportunity’ of bear marketBitcoin might have temporarily benefited from Fed Chair Warsh’s concerns about persistent inflation, but rising expectations for higher interest rates and strong earnings momentum in the AI sector may continue to exert negative pressure on Bitcoin. As a result, a sustainable rally to $65,000 could take longer.