Autor Cointelegraph By Marcel Pechman

Key takeaways:Solana perpetual futures funding rates flipped negative, signaling excess demand for bearish positions.Rival networks like Base and Hyperliquid pose direct threats to Solana by aggressively capturing DEX market volume.Solana’s native token SOL (SOL) faced a 15% correction following a rejection at $98 on May 11. A retest of the $83 level on Tuesday was followed by negative futures funding rates, indicating increased demand for short SOL positions. While declining network activity contributed to the price drop, competition among rival blockchain networks has picked up. SOL perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Source: LaevitasThe SOL perpetual futures funding rate stood at -3% on Tuesday, down considerably from the +8% on Saturday. During neutral market conditions, this indicator hovers near +9% to account for the cost of capital and exchange risk. Demand for bullish leverage has been largely absent since Saturday, when SOL price slipped below $90.Solana DEX activity has declined by 56% since JanuaryDeclining activity on Solana’s decentralized exchanges (DEXs) has reduced ecosystem revenue and demand for SOL. This reduced appetite for decentralized applications (DApps) was not exclusive to Solana, but growing competition poses a major threat, as investors fear that demand for memecoins has faded for good.Solana weekly DEX volumes, DApps revenue, USD. Source: DefiLlamaSolana DApp revenue stabilized near $20 million per week, down from an average of $35 million in January. This movement closely mirrors the network’s DEX activity trend, which currently stands at $11 billion per week, compared to January’s average of $25 billion. The 30-day DApp revenue leaders on Solana are Pump, Axiom Pro, Phantom, and Jupiter, which command a combined 65% market share.Blockchain ranked by weekly DApps revenue market share. Source: DefiLlamaSolana remained the top blockchain for DApp revenue despite intensifying competition. Hyperliquid created a direct threat due to its dominance in perpetual contracts, offering a high-throughput solution with core trading features built directly into the consensus layer. Meanwhile, the Ethereum layer-2 network Base offered seamless integration into the Coinbase ecosystem.In terms of total value locked (TVL), Solana secured second place with $5.9 billion, followed by BNB Chain at $5.5 billion and Base at $4.5 billion. DEX platforms and staking DApps like Jupiter, Kamino, Sanctum, and Raydium lead Solana’s TVL. Still, no blockchain threatens Ethereum’s $43.2 billion TVL, which relies heavily on collateralized lending and liquid staking.Potential spoofing activity on Solana network DAppsSolana’s footprint in the DApp industry cannot be understated, but the network’s low fees offer a perfect opportunity for maximal extractable value (MEV) botting and inflated activity.Related: Goldman Sachs exits XRP, Solana ETF exposure in Q1 2026Source: X/lukecannon727X user lukecannon727 noted that 1,600 addresses were reportedly responsible for nearly 63% of volumes on PreStocks, a synthetic asset trading platform that runs on the Solana network. According to the analysis, those entities presented balanced trading activity, high execution frequency, and small net losses. These findings are highly consistent with arbitrage activity, but they could also indicate volume spoofing.  Recent weakness in SOL prices can be partially attributed to the broader decline in DApp demand and increased competition, especially from Hyperliquid and Base. An eventual bull run seems highly dependent on a pickup in DEX activity, particularly in memecoin trading. But, at the same time, there is no indication that SOL should retest the $78 level last seen in early April.

Key takeaways:Aggressive Bitcoin buying by Strategy helped to offset the recent leveraged long liquidations.Rising bond yields and a heavy US government debt burden are driving investors toward scarce assets.A potential deal between the US and Iran could quickly restore traders’ risk appetite.Bitcoin (BTC) faced a rejection following a failed attempt to break above $82,000 on Thursday. A subsequent retest of the $76,000 level on Monday triggered $400 million in liquidations for bullish Bitcoin positions over a four-day period. While traders’ confidence took a hit from the 7% price decline, the prospects for recovering the $80,000 mark remain valid.Bitcoin reserve accumulation by Strategy (MSTR US). Source: StrategyUS-listed Strategy (MSTR US) completed the acquisition of $2 billion in BTC over the past week alone. Spearheaded by Michael Saylor, the company continues to surprise investors by finding innovative ways to reduce the cost of capital and raise cash through equity issuance, whether via MSTR common stock or STRC preferred equity.More importantly, Strategy proved the company can also capitalize on a weaker market by repurchasing $1.5 billion of its debt due in 2029. Retiring some of its senior convertible notes reduces potential future dilution for current MSTR holders. This move clears the runway for new share issuance and additional Bitcoin purchases.S&P 500 index (left) vs. US 10-year Treasury yield (right). Source: TradingViewFrom a macroeconomic perspective, the odds of a sustainable bullish momentum for Bitcoin improved as traders demanded higher returns to hold government bonds. Yields on the 10-year Treasury jumped to 4.60%, hitting their highest level in 16 months. Investors are gradually realizing the heavy burden on the US Treasury, especially with $2 trillion in long-term debt maturing in 2026.US dollar weakness and a potential deal with IranThe US Federal Reserve will likely need to continue accumulating bonds and Treasurys, a move that potentially weakens the US dollar. Typically, investors seek shelter in scarce assets when they lose confidence in the central bank’s ability to navigate a crisis without devaluing the currency. Even if gold acts as the primary beneficiary, the incentive to hold fixed-income assets drops significantly.Gold/USD (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingViewGold prices surged in January after the US captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and President Trump’s global trade war escalated. However, gold retraced most of those gains over the next four months, while Bitcoin built strong bullish momentum, jumping to $76,500 from $65,000 in late February. These recent price moves hint at growing confidence in Bitcoin as a reliable hedge instrument.Related: Analysts debate whether Bitcoin is in ‘sell in May’ bear market setupCrude Brent oil prices jumped to $113 on Monday as negotiations to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz backpedaled. Oil prices have surged more than 50% since the US and Israel attacked Iran in late February. President Trump’s administration also decided not to renew a waiver for Russian crude oil, further squeezing supply, according to Yahoo Finance.A deal between the US and Iran, while not the baseline scenario, could trigger renewed risk appetite and catapult the Bitcoin price back above $80,000. Inflation has been pinned down by high energy prices, limiting the odds of expansionary monetary policies. Even so, the odds favor Bitcoin, as the US stock market is hovering near its all-time high while the cryptocurrency still sits 39% below its peak.

Bitcoin (BTC) faced a sharp contraction on Friday following a rejection at $82,000 the prior day. Recent price movements closely resembled the US small-capitalization stock index, hinting that macroeconomic factors are the leading drivers behind the nosedive below $79,000. The anxiety sparked a sell-off in fixed-income markets. Counterintuitively, this may help Bitcoin embark on a sustained bull run over the next few weeks. Key takeaways:High correlation with US small-cap stocks and absent bullish leverage demand leave Bitcoin vulnerable to broader macro risks.Fixed-income outflows could ultimately drive fresh liquidity back into Bitcoin in the medium term.Bitcoin loses $80,000 support amid high oil prices, recession risksThe US small-capitalization stock index excludes the 1,000 largest companies, avoiding the heavy concentration of tech stocks. More importantly, these stocks carry a higher risk due to smaller relative earnings and a lower financial capacity to survive worsening market conditions. Russell 2000 Index futures (left) vs Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingViewMoreover, the cost of capital for smaller companies is often higher, making them more sensitive to interest rate trends.The strong correlation between Bitcoin and the Russell 2000 Index indicates that Bitcoin is not currently being valued as a hedge, but rather as a risk-on asset.Bitcoin perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Source: LaevitasThe Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rate flipped deeply negative on Thursday and remained near 0% on Friday. Demand for bullish leverage has been mostly absent, as the indicator has been below the neutral 6% threshold for the past couple of weeks. Multiple attempts to break above $82,000 were not enough to instill confidence, meaning traders remained skeptical of further price gains.Investors might have opted to reduce exposure ahead of the weekend, which is natural given the uncertainty regarding the prolonged war in Iran. There is an overall sense of increased risk as the stock market is just 5% below the peak dot-com bubble of January 2000, according to the 10-year S&P 500 inflation-adjusted Shiller price-to-earnings ratio.Shiller inflation-adjusted 10-year S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio. Source: MultplGains in the tech sector drove the Nasdaq 100 Index to an all-time high on Thursday. However, the optimism cooled off on Friday after disappointing results from the US-China Summit in Beijing. No concrete deals on import tariffs have been announced, apart from promises to accelerate US farm goods exports “over the next three years,” according to The Guardian.Investors flee fixed-income investments, triggering short-term anxietyAdditionally, China’s foreign ministry reportedly said that the war in Iran “should never have happened” and “has no reason to continue.” Crude Brent oil prices jumped to $106 from $99 one week prior, piling further upward pressure on inflation. This move has caused investors to flee government bonds, as central banks will likely be forced to boost liquidity to avert an economic recession.Related: Bitcoin trades at a ‘discount’ on Coinbase: Is a $76K retest next?Japan 10-year government bond yield. Source: TradingViewYields on the 10-year government bond surged to their highest levels in over two decades. A similar movement occurred on Eurozone 10-year bond yields, which jumped to 3.18%, the highest mark in 15 years. Outflows from fixed-income investments will eventually seek gains elsewhere. Hence, the shaky economic conditions might ultimately benefit Bitcoin in the medium term.For now, Bitcoin’s short-term price weakness can be pinned to its high correlation with small-cap US stocks, a lack of demand for bullish BTC leveraged positions, the war in Iran and fear of an economic crisis.

Key takeaways:The Coinbase Bitcoin discount likely stems from stablecoin outflows rather than actual institutional sell pressure.Strategy continues buying Bitcoin as the market holds firm despite minor price differences across exchanges.Bitcoin (BTC) showed resilience on Thursday by successfully defending the $79,000 level. However, some traders worry that upside momentum is stalling as Bitcoin on Coinbase trades at a discount relative to stablecoin pairs on international exchanges.Coinbase discount likely driven by stablecoin outflowsWhile the indicator is often debated, it potentially suggests a lack of institutional buying demand, though the situation is likely more complex.BTC/USD at Coinbase vs. BTC/USDT at major exchanges. Source: TradingView & CointelegraphBTC/USD on Coinbase has maintained a 0.03% discount against Binance, OKX, and Bybit over the past week. This gap represents a notable shift from the 0.04% premium seen in April. This change in market structure happened even as Strategy (MSTR US) purchased 51,364 BTC during a three-week window.Although a correlation exists between institutional activity and the Coinbase premium, stablecoin demand also impacts the metric. High volumes of traders moving from crypto back into fiat currency can cause stablecoins to devalue slightly against the dollar. Consequently, these assets do not always trade at parity, which can distort the perceived premium or discount on USD-based exchanges.USD stablecoin premium/discount relative to USD/CNY rate. Source: OKXMeasured in China’s Yuan, USD stablecoins are currently trading at a 0.6% discount against the official foreign exchange rate. This data signals heightened demand to exit cryptocurrency markets and is likely the main driver behind the Bitcoin discount on Coinbase compared to stablecoin-based pricing. Coinbase Bitcoin inflows not enough to justify a sell pressureEssentially, stablecoin prices remain volatile regardless of whether they are quoted in dollars or Yuan.Bitcoin 7-day average net transfer volumes at Coinbase, USD. Source: GlassnodeNet Bitcoin flows on the Coinbase exchange show average net deposits of $58 million per day. This figure is relatively modest and does not reflect the disparity with other markets. For comparison, average net daily Bitcoin withdrawals peaked at $275 million in April, yet the Coinbase premium failed to climb above 0.05% during that period.US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs daily net flows, USD. Source: SoSoValueOutflows from US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have likely contributed to these net deposits at Coinbase. The $1.26 billion in net outflows recorded since May 7 aligns with the negative stablecoin premium seen against the Chinese Yuan. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s repeated failure to break above the $82,000 resistance level has dampened sentiment, making it difficult to isolate the primary cause of the fluctuating Coinbase premium metric.Related: Strategy stock beats Bitcoin after rising 25% in a month-BTC bottom in?A 5% Bitcoin price correction from the $82,840 peak on May 6 should not cause concern, especially as Strategy continues adding exposure through perpetual stock issues. More importantly, the Bitcoin/USD discount on Coinbase is not a reliable indicator of institutional appetite. Furthermore, Coinbase exchange flows reveal no anomalies or panic selling.Bitcoin’s strength above $81,000 on Thursday makes it evident that price differences between exchanges are not enough to dictate price trends. Ultimately, the odds of a $76,000 retest in the short term are low despite these technical distortions.

Key takeaways:A successful Hyperliquid whale opened a $70 million short position, but data suggests this is a technical move.Rising oil prices and Fed liquidity injections could devalue US Treasuries, boosting Bitcoin as a scarce macro asset.Bitcoin below $80,000 as Hyperliquid whale flips bearish on cryptoBitcoin (BTC) failed to sustain bullish momentum on Wednesday, retreating below the psychological $80,000 level. Traders grew anxious as persistently high oil prices applied pressure to inflation and consumer spending. A Hyperliquid whale with $42 million in historical profits flipped bearish, leaving investors to question whether the recent rally is losing its foundation.Hyperliquid whale 0x8def…992dae profit/loss, USD. Source: CoinGlassThe Hyperliquid whale at address 0x8def…992dae recently opened a $70 million bearish position on various cryptocurrencies and synthetic tokens tied to major technology stocks. According to the Hyperdash trading and data platform, the address belongs to Loracle, an early developer within the Hyperliquid ecosystem. This account began betting more aggressively in September 2025.Related: Bitcoin price targets $79K as US PPI inflation hits highest since 2022Interestingly, the majority of this whale’s past profits were generated through bullish bets, including several successful trades over the last month. A long position in Bitcoin, Zcash (ZEC), and Toncoin (TON) closed on Monday, netting a $9.2 million profit in just two weeks. On Thursday, the same entity secured a $3 million profit on bullish synthetic tokens linked to oil prices after a nine-day hold.Hyperliquid whale 0x94d373…c933814 position on May 13. Source: app.trade.xyzOver the past week, this whale flipped bearishly by accumulating a massive $49 million short position on HYPE. These bets on downside price movements expanded to include a $12.5 million short in Bitcoin, alongside $8 million in synthetic tokens tracking chipmaker Sandisk (SNDK US) and the Nasdaq-100 Index.Why is the whale shorting BTC, HYPE, and tech stocks? This bearish assessment is further supported by a $1.7 million long position in a gold-backed stablecoin. However, trade data analysis from app.trade.xyz reveals an algorithmic trading style, with positions typically lasting less than a week. These findings suggest the whale is reacting to short-term technical moves rather than a fundamental breakdown in risk-on assets.Brent crude oil (left) vs. US 5-year Treasury yield (right). Source: TradingViewThe ongoing war in Iran has pushed Brent crude oil prices above $100. This spike likely pushes the US Federal Reserve to expand its balance sheet as US Treasury yields spiral out of control. As US fiscal budget issues mount, investors are increasingly incentivized to seek shelter in scarce assets, especially since higher inflation expectations reduce the appeal of fixed-income investments.US Federal Reserve total assets, USD millions. Source: St Louis FedThe US Fed has begun accumulating bonds and mortgage-backed assets to relieve pressure on financial institutions. While providing liquidity eases immediate concerns, this intervention causes inflation to accelerate. This remedy, though efficient, curbs the potential for expansionist monetary policies, as the Fed has less room to trim interest rates effectively.Even if Bitcoin and tech stocks initially react negatively to signs of an overheating economy, traders will likely eventually exit fixed-income investments as the expansion of the monetary base becomes evident. Lower demand for US Treasuries indicates eroding trust in monetary policy, which serves as a positive driver for Bitcoin over the medium term.Ultimately, little reason exists to fear this Hyperliquid whale’s bearish bets, even when accounting for the entity’s successful track record.