Autor Cointelegraph By Marcel Pechman

Key takeaways:Solana’s tokenized assets and memecoin revival drove SOL to a 30-day high at $83.Bullish leveraged appetite cooled sharply, suggesting traders are hesitant to bet on further gains to $90.Solana’s SOL token jumped to its highest mark in over 30 days on Friday at $83, marking a decoupling from the altcoin market. SOL’s rally gained steam from a surge in tokenized trading volume on Solana, inflows of stablecoin liquidity, and an unexpected comeback in memecoin activity. Can SOL reclaim the $90 level?Total altcoin market capitalization, USD (left) vs. SOL/USD (right). Source: TradingViewSOL’s bullish momentum ignited on June 23, coinciding with cumulative tokenized stock transfers on Solana surpassing $10 billion. The launch of SpaceX shares trading by Backpack propelled Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) utilization. In contrast, the broader altcoin market extended its downtrend, hitting the lowest level since December 2023.30-day tokenized assets net flows ex-stablecoins, USD. Source: RWA.xyzTokenized assets on the Solana network surged to a record-high $3.5 billion on Wednesday, up from $2.7 billion one month prior. The recent boost came from corporate credit tokens and stock market indexes, such as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100. According to RWA.xyz data, Solana leads with 294,274 active addresses in the tokenized industry, followed by Ethereum with 204,955.Memecoins, prediction markets surge may push SOL toward $90The airdrop of The Black Bull (ANSEM) memecoin on Sunday re-ignited interest in the sector. The token, launched on Pump.fun, reached a $60 million market capitalization on Tuesday. The anonymous developer directed some 65% of the supply to the crypto influencer Ansem’s public wallet. The distribution lacked transparency, but involved 74,000 addresses over the initial 3 days.Top 7-day performances of Solana tokens. Source: CoinRankingMultiple memecoins on Solana surged on the back of the memecoin airdrop, but the biggest winner was the Pump.fun platform token (PUMP). The 27% weekly gains were enough to send PUMP back into the top-100 crypto rankings, with a $630 million market capitalization. ANSEM memecoin extended its gains on Friday, reaching an all-time high market capitalization of $112 million.The launch of World prediction markets integrated on Phantom wallet has created expectations for increased Solana activity. The project gathered nearly $890,000 in total value locked in two days and aims to compete with the extremely successful Polymarket amid the World Cup betting frenzy. Jupiter has also unveiled its prediction markets under beta test on June 29.Related: US dominates Polymarket political bets despite geoblock–ReportSOL perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Source: LaevitasThe appetite for bullish leveraged positions has vastly declined since Wednesday, when SOL’s price crossed above $75 for the first time in 30 days. SOL futures annualized funding rate dropped to 3% on Friday from an 11% peak two days prior. Under neutral conditions, the indicator should range from 6% to 12% to offset the capital cost.Investors are not comfortable betting on a SOL rally to $90 merely on the back of a temporary memecoin demand surge. Unless there is sustainable demand for blockchain activity, there are no apparent drivers for SOL to further widen its performance gap relative to the remaining altcoins.

Key takeaways:Soft US jobs market data triggered a rotation of capital from overheated AI stocks into Bitcoin and gold.Bitcoin onchain indicators hint at seller exhaustion while the decline in oil prices opens room for monetary expansion.Bitcoin reclaimed the $61,000 mark following a disappointing US job market report. Traders grew less certain of a near-term interest rate hike from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) given the worsening labor data. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index sold off, fueling hopes of a capital rotation favoring Bitcoin.Nasdaq 100 Index futures (blue) vs. Bitcoin/USD (orange). Source: TradingViewThe Nasdaq 100 Index erased gains from the three prior days, while Bitcoin distanced itself from Wednesday’s $57,750 low. US non-farm payrolls increased by only 57,000 in June, missing the 113,000 expected, according to Yahoo Finance. The US Labor Department also revised data for April and May downward by 74,000 jobs.Gold prices reacted positively on Thursday, hinting at potential bullish momentum for scarce assets. The weak economic data prompted investors to cut odds of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes by September to 54% from 64% the prior day, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, crude WTI oil prices stabilized below $70, opening the door for possible economic stimulus measuresGold/USD (red) vs. Crude WTI oil (teal). Source: TradingViewOil prices dropped after the Qatar Foreign Ministry cited “positive progress” in the latest round of discussions between US and Iranian representatives on Wednesday. Gold recovered some of the 8% losses accumulated over the prior two weeks, a possible sign that investors anticipate a less tight monetary policy and further FED balance sheet expansion.US Federal Reserve total assets, USD millions. Source: FED St LouisThe Federal Reserve balance sheet stagnated at $6.73 trillion, although its mandate allows for $40 billion monthly purchases in short-term Treasuries and bonds. Weak job market data and reduced inflationary pressure are widely seen as catalysts for accelerated liquidity injection, creating incentives to invest in scarce assets, including gold and Bitcoin.Overheated AI stocks clash with Bitcoin flashing a bottomWeakness in the AI sector, especially among chipmakers, has led traders to anticipate capital shifting toward alternative assets. Shares of SanDisk, Seagate, Western Digital, and Applied Materials saw intraday losses of 9% or higher on Thursday. In contrast, Bitcoin is showing signs of seller exhaustion two months after rejection at $82,500.Related: Bitcoin tops $60K amid Fed inflation talks–Is bull trap or $65K next?Source: X/gaah_imOnchain analyst and CryptoQuant author gaah_im said that Bitcoin’s realized profit-to-loss ratio has hit its lowest level since 2022. The net percentage of supply in profit relative to the total supply has turned negative, which historically has marked cycle bottoms with “extreme precision,” according to the analyst. In essence, onchain data hints at further Bitcoin upside.Part of Bitcoin’s recent weakness stems from traders’ disappointment with Strategy. Despite a healthy 8% net leverage and $56.8 billion in enterprise value, holders faced dilution from accelerated MSTR share issuance used to buy back some debt and cover dividends on preferred stocks.If weakness in the AI sector accelerates, some of that money will likely rotate into gold and Bitcoin, making a near-term recovery to $70,000 possible.

Key takeaways:Persistent spot Bitcoin ETF outflows and US dollar strength reduce the odds of a quick bounce to $65,000.Strong AI sector earnings momentum and higher fixed-income returns pull capital from Bitcoin and gold.Bitcoin (BTC) reacted positively to US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks on stubborn inflation. Despite the gains on Wednesday, traders fear that incentives for fixed-income investments and strong earnings momentum in tech stocks will continue to pressure non-yield-bearing assets like cryptocurrencies.US 5-year Treasury yield (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD. Source: TradingViewThe US 5-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.22%, meaning traders demanded higher returns to hold government bonds. Even as inflation eventually eases and WTI crude oil prices fell to a 4-month low, investors anticipate monetary expansion. Regardless of how the Fed manages interest rates and its balance sheet, the US Treasury dictates debt issuance trends.Implied odds of FED interest rates on Sept. 16. Source: CME FedWatch ToolUS government bond futures implied 64% odds of interest rate hikes by September, up from 23% one month prior. The higher expected return on fixed-income investments came as the US dollar strengthened against other major global fiat currencies, which is especially concerning for alternative hedges such as gold and Bitcoin.Gold/USD (left) vs. US dollar strength (DXY). Source: TradingViewDespite the gains on Wednesday, gold prices are down 12% in two months, while the US dollar strength (DXY) nears its highest mark in one year. This vote of confidence in the US economy partly stems from AI sector strength, evident in the 25% gains in the Nasdaq 100 index. However, some specific tech sub-sectors have recently signaled weakness, which could act as a catalyst for Bitcoin and gold.Could the AI sector cool off act as a catalyst for Bitcoin?Micron (MU US) and SanDisk (SNDK US) shares saw intraday losses exceeding 9% on Wednesday after competitors SK Hynix (000660 KR) and Samsung (005930 KR) announced plans to expand capacity. Still, the move can hardly be deemed a trend reversal as the iShares SOX Semiconductor Index ETF (SOXX US) gained 78% in three months.Continued outflows from US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have shattered bulls’ hopes, reinforcing a negative price spiral as negative news gets amplified while positive events barely register. US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs daily net flows, USD. Source: SoSoValueRegardless of the rationale behind the sales, Bitcoin’s weakness, 53% below its all-time high, does not inspire confidence in the $60,000 support level.Strategy (MSTR US) increased its cash position to restore a healthy 17 months of dividend coverage on Monday. However, Strategy’s variable-rate Stretch preferred stock (STRC US) continued to trade far from the $100 target required for additional issuances. The STRC dividend rose to 12% from 11.5%, which was apparently not enough to entice more buyers.Related: Bitcoin just $5K away from ‘best investment opportunity’ of bear marketBitcoin might have temporarily benefited from Fed Chair Warsh’s concerns about persistent inflation, but rising expectations for higher interest rates and strong earnings momentum in the AI sector may continue to exert negative pressure on Bitcoin. As a result, a sustainable rally to $65,000 could take longer.

Key takeaways:The Spot Ether ETF outflows overwhelmed BitMine’s ETH accumulation, raising the chance of a drop below the $1,500 support.Falling DApps revenue and weak staking yields highlight limited ecosystem incentives despite tokenization potential.Ether (ETH) has failed to sustain prices above $1,600 since Thursday, following the broader cryptocurrency market’s downtrend. Lower oil prices created a positive tone that fueled investors’ hopes for more expansionist monetary policy. That setup favors stocks and pushes bond yields higher.Traders now fear that ETH will not hold the $1,500 support level for long. Spot Ether ETF outflows void the impact of accumulation from Ether treasury companies.ETH/USD (orange) vs. Total crypto market cap (blue). Source: TradingViewEther price has declined 31% since May and underperformed the total cryptocurrency market capitalization by 8% over that period. US-listed Ether ETFs saw $345 million in net outflows since June 17, which more than offset the $182 million in ETH accumulation from BitMine Immersion (BMNR US) and Sharplink (SBET US) during the same period.Regulatory setbacks, AI competition and weak Ethereum onchain metricsSeveral factors appear to have held back investor appetite, including regulatory uncertainty in the United States. Meanwhile, the stock market continues to draw attention thanks to strong earnings and lower inflation expectations.The Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act has awaited a Senate vote since May 15. The bill ends regulation-by-enforcement and clarifies which tokens count as securities. Yet it has faced pushback from lawmakers over provisions regarding stablecoin yields and anti-money-laundering standards.Democratic lawmakers voiced ethical concerns about the Trump family’s ties to crypto and its role in the World Liberty Financial platform. Most view the CLARITY Act as a positive catalyst for the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector. So ongoing uncertainty around approval hurts institutional demand for ETH.The artificial intelligence sector now competes with blockchain for data processing as cloud providers deliver services through agentic architectures. Enterprise software leader SAP (SAP DE) has integrated autonomous, modular AI agents natively across multi-vendor clouds, enabling peer-to-peer collaboration.Ether investors also feel disappointment from stagnant Ethereum network fees and decentralized applications (DApps) revenues. As a result, ETH supply becomes inflationary, staking yields remain limited, and fewer incentives exist for ecosystem growth, since part of DApps’ revenue flows back to users.Ethereum monthly network chain fees vs. DApps revenue, USD. Source: DefiLlamaEthereum network fees reached only $10.7 million in June, down from $24.4 million in April. DApps revenue hit $51.7 million in June, down from $64.8 million two months earlier. Top contributors included Sky (formerly Maker) at $12.7 million, Titan Builder at $7.2 million, and Chainlink at $4.6 million.Ethereum supporters argue that tokenization remains in its early innings. The long-term growth potential should create enough blockchain demand to support a much higher ETH valuation.Related: Ether treasury Sharplink bought $62.4M ETH last weekEthereum real world assets (RWA) active market capitalization, USD. Source: DefiLlamaWhile real world assets (RWA) show real promise, the $14.5 billion in tokenized market cap on Ethereum has yet to spark meaningful DeFi activity. With a 2.7% staking yield and weak onchain metrics, the odds of ETH breaking below $1,500 remain in play.

Key takeaways:An extreme Bitcoin put-call options imbalance and a 19% delta skew reveal heavy hedging against downside price swings.Strategy’s cash hoard eases short-term debt fears but does not hold back a broader capital rotation into tech stocks.Bitcoin has failed to reclaim the $61,000 mark since Thursday, despite optimism fueled by lower crude oil prices following the US and Iran’s 60-day ceasefire agreement. Demand for downside Bitcoin price protection jumped to unusually high levels, prompting traders to question whether $55,000 is the next target.Deribit Bitcoin options premium put-to-call ratio. Source: LaevitasThe premium paid on Bitcoin put (sell) options on Deribit totaled $115 million on Friday, 7 times the $16 million paid on call (buy) options. The imbalance was the highest in over 12 months, signaling extremely low demand from bulls. However, such data does not necessarily signal conviction from bears.Bitcoin 30-day options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: LaevitasThe Bitcoin options delta skew stood at 19% on Monday, meaning market makers are unwilling to hold downside price exposure. This setup hints at fear, although that has been the norm for the past 4 weeks. Data aligns with growing demand for bearish hedging as Bitcoin price struggles to sustain levels above $60,000.Bitcoin’s weakness can be partially pinned to investors’ discomfort with MicroStrategy (MSTR US) ability to pay dividends and debt maturing in 2027. The company reacted on Monday by announcing an additional $1.2 billion in cash from recent share sales and setting aside $1.25 billion in Bitcoin for eventual sale.The measures taken by Strategy ease some short-term concerns but also create anxiety about Bitcoin’s supply and demand dynamics. Even if no sales occur over the next couple of months, bears are more comfortable knowing that Strategy has no incentives to issue MSTR shares given the current 17 months of dividend coverage.Related: Grayscale’s Pandl says Strategy should sell $3B Bitcoin to restore confidenceRotation from Bitcoin and gold into semiconductor stocks In contrast to Bitcoin investors’ pessimism, momentum in the US stock market has shifted favorably after inflationary pressure eased, with crude oil prices dropping to their lowest levels in 4 months. Additionally, a Goldman Sachs report projected 22% annual earnings growth for S&P 500 companies, easing concerns about excessive valuations.Source: X/KobeissiLetterRetail investors appear to be rotating out of gold and Bitcoin into semiconductor stocks, according to ‘The Kobeissi Letter’ analysis. Data collected by Bloomberg has shown over $20 billion in cumulative inflows in semiconductor exchange-traded funds (ETFs), triggering an 81% rally in iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX US) and 60% gains in VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH).US-listed Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds weekly net flows, USD. Source: SoSoValueThe 7 consecutive weeks of net outflows from the US-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs have shattered bulls’ hopes of a strong bounce from the $58,050 lows on June 25. Regardless of whether the sell-off can be attributed to the rotation into tech stocks, sentiment is unlikely to improve while Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to see strong net outflows.A retest of $55,000 should not be dismissed, but the increased demand for downside hedging in Bitcoin options should not be interpreted as growing confidence among bears.