Autor Cointelegraph By Marcel Pechman

Key takeaways:Despite ETH’s price gains, weak onchain activity and low DEX volumes signal trader caution.Record Ethereum staking at 34% reduces sell pressure, yet sustained upside needs external catalysts.Ether (ETH) tested the $1,950 mark for the first time in seven weeks on Tuesday, triggering $62 million in liquidations across leveraged bearish positions. The move delivered 29% gains from the $1,500 low on June 26 and aligned with the broader risk-on mood that drove Bitcoin (BTC) above $66,500. Can ETH push through to $2,100?Total crypto market capitalization (left) vs. ETH/USD. Source: TradingViewEther’s price largely tracked the overall crypto market trend, which shifted to positive momentum in July. Tuesday’s gains in the US stock market helped ease investor worries about stretched valuations after the artificial intelligence stock rally. Traders expect solid corporate earnings after 3M Company (MMM US) reported results Tuesday morning.Google’s parent, Alphabet, is expected to report quarterly results on Wednesday after US stock markets close. Investors look for 64% growth in cloud services revenue amid heavy AI investments. Strong earnings could restore confidence and help push the cryptocurrency market past the $2 trillion total capitalization mark.Weak Ethereum onchain metrics and muted ETH derivatives persistDespite recent ETH price gains, Ethereum onchain metrics show stagnation. Demand for blockchain processing has not recovered to levels seen six months ago, partly because traders are showing less interest in memecoins and utility tokens. Some of Ethereum’s top projects posted losses of 50% or more year-to-date, including Ethena (ENA), Mantle (MNT) and Arbitrum (ARB).Ethereum network weekly DEX volumes & DApps revenues, USD. Source: DefiLlamaWeekly revenue for Ethereum’s decentralized applications (DApps) fell to the lowest levels since September 2024, hitting $9.8 million. Among the strongest performers are Sky (formerly MakerDAO) at $3.2 million in weekly revenue and Chainlink, which brought in $1.2 million over the same period. Overall, decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes dropped to $7.2 billion per week.Ethereum’s weak onchain data mirrors the subdued mood in derivatives markets.ETH perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Source: LaevitasThe annualized funding rate on ETH perpetual futures has struggled to remain within the neutral 6%-12% range over the past month. Still, sentiment has improved from the negative rates seen in late June, which reflected heavy bearish demand. Rising interest in Ethereum staking has likely boosted trader expectations for price gains and reduced downside risks.Ethereum staking data. Source: StakingRewardsAccording to Staking Rewards data, a record-high 34% of all ETH supply is now staked, up from 33% one month earlier. Analysts expect reduced sell pressure as long-term holders keep accumulating supply, including Tom Lee’s Bitmine Immersion (BMNR US), which added 156,719 ETH over the past month. The company now controls 4.8% of available supply.ETH price is 61% below the all-time high from August 2025, which helps explain why bulls lack enthusiasm in derivatives markets. The soft on-chain metrics and six-month bear market have left traders skeptical about sustained upside.Ether’s path to $2,100 likely depends on reduced risk aversion across markets, which makes Google’s revenue guidance on Wednesday especially important.

Key takeaways:Bitcoin futures and options show whales still prefer hedging downside risks as socio-economic risks mount.Rising Treasury yields and declines in AI stocks fuel risk aversion, yet BTC’s strength signals continued decoupling.Bitcoin (BTC) showed relative strength over the past week, despite failing to break above $65,500. More importantly, the cryptocurrency has decoupled from traditional markets as investors took profits in memory-chip makers amid fears of excessive valuations in the artificial intelligence sector. Still, judging by Bitcoin’s derivative metrics, top traders are not particularly confident about a rally toward $70,000.Bitcoin perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Source: LaevitasThe Bitcoin perpetual futures annualized funding rate stood at a neutral 8% mark on Monday, flat from one week prior. Excessive demand for bullish leverage drives the indicator above the 12% level, which last occurred on July 10. It is unclear if Bitcoin traders’ lack of optimism is somewhat related to contagion fears from the sell-off in tech stocks or the war in Iran.Nasdaq-100 futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingViewThe tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 Index dropped below 28,800 on Friday for the first time in five weeks, while Bitcoin displayed strength over the weekend and eventually broke above $65,000 on Monday. Strategy announced a successful raise of $263 million in cash by selling common stock during the prior week, easing concerns of potential Bitcoin sell pressure.Investors became extremely anxious about Strategy’s $1.76 billion annual dividend payout to its preferred perpetual equity shareholders, in addition to the $2.6 billion of convertible debt maturing in 2028 and 2029. By raising cash reserves to a comfortable $3.22 billion, the company hopes to eliminate the uncertainty caused by unrealized Bitcoin losses held in its balance sheet.Bitcoin 30-day options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: LaevitasThe Bitcoin 30-day options delta skew stood at 13% on Monday, meaning puts (sell) traded at a premium relative to calls (buy). Under neutral conditions, the indicator should range from -6% to +6%. Despite the modest improvement from the prior week’s 19% delta skew, whales and market makers remain reluctant to hold downside price exposure.Bitcoin’s resilience amid AI stocks weakness and increased risk aversionThe sell-off in AI-related stocks has also caused investors to act more risk-averse. The sharp declines in the shares of IBM, SanDisk, Oracle, ARM, SpaceX and Intel coincided with a rally in 5-year US Treasury yields. Traders demanded higher returns to hold government bonds, indicating they anticipate further expansionary monetary measures due to the ongoing fiscal debt issue.Gold/USD (left) vs. US 5-year Treasury yield (right): Source: TradingViewThe US 5-year Treasury yield surged to 4.33% on Monday, up from 4.22% two weeks prior. Curiously, gold prices have been in a downtrend since mid-May, suggesting that no asset class has been immune to the deteriorating global economic growth outlook and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. On Monday, US President Trump vowed to retaliate against Iran for a missile strike that killed US soldiers in Jordan, putting risk assets on high alert. Bitcoin’s jump to $65,500 strengthens the case for further decoupling from traditional finance markets amid signs of monetary base expansion. Despite a lack of bullishness in BTC derivatives markets, a rally toward $70,000 could be ignited by weak corporate earnings, especially in the AI sector.

Ether (ETH) price gained 3% between Thursday and Friday, outperforming the broader crypto market. The move ties to growing tokenization, Robinhood Chain’s success, and ongoing corporate treasury purchases. However, ETH failed to break above $1,800 amid weak onchain and derivatives metrics. Is Ether price bound to retest $1,700?Key takeaways:Ethereum leads RWA tokenization while Robinhood Chain drives fresh ETH inflows and ecosystem growth.Mixed signals persist as BitMine accumulates heavily, yet stagnant onchain metrics signal caution.Robinhood Chain and tokenization growth boost ETH priceThe successful launch of the layer-2 network Robinhood Chain has boosted Ether investors’ sentiment. The newly launched blockchain uses ETH as its native gas token and has netted $106 million in bridge deposits. The TradFi trading platform Robinhood offers tokenized stocks to customers in 120 countries, further strengthening the EVM-compatible ecosystem.Distributed tokenized assets value per chain, USD. Source: rwa.xyzEthereum dominates the RWA (real-world assets) market with a 47% market share, according to Rwa.xyz data. Excluding stablecoins, notable highlights include SKY’s Tether Gold (XAUT), Ondo US Dollar Yield (USDY), and Franklin Templeton’s government bonds (iBENJI). Leaders among tokenized stocks include Strategy’s PP variable (STRCx) from xStocks and Circle Group (CRCLon) from Ondo.Source: X/LeonWaidmannLeon Waidmann, head of Research at Lisk, noted that for the first time in history, the Total Value Locked (TVL) on Ethereum at $260 billion surpassed the market cap of Ether, currently at $210 billion. According to Waidmann, this distortion signals that “ETH is underpriced,” as the current relative valuation is lower than in the 2022 bear market.Weak onchain and derivatives metrics limit Ether’s upsideRegardless of the growing adoption of Ethereum’s layer-2 solutions and the institutional inflows, onchain metrics point to overall stagnation. The 2026 bear market has hurt blockchain demand, while competing blockchains gained ground in specific sectors, including synthetic perpetual futures and automated yield vaults.Ethereum weekly DApps revenue, USD (left) vs. active addresses (right). Source: DefiLlamaDecentralized applications (DApps) on Ethereum generated $11 million in weekly revenue, down from $20 million in the first quarter of 2026. Notable mentions include Sky at $3.1 million, Titan Builder with $2.4 million, and Chalink’s $1.1 million. Similarly, active addresses dropped to 3.2 million from 5.4 million in the first quarter, according to DefiLlama.ETH perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Source: LaevitasMeanwhile, ETH’s perpetual futures annualized funding rate dropped to 3% on Saturday, below the 6% neutral threshold signaling weak demand for bullish positions. Current data contrasts with the peak 12% levels from Friday, suggesting that bulls lack confidence. However, institutional inflows likely explain the latest price gains.Source: X/ArkhamArkham Intelligence flagged an ETH 20,500 withdrawal on Thursday worth $36 million from Galaxy Digital to a new wallet, a pattern that matches previous Tom Lee’s BitMine Immersion (BMNR US) purchases. BitMine added ETH 198,370 in the past 30 days alone, while the treasury company now holds $10.3 billion in reserves.Ultimately, mixed signals from strong fundamentals and weak onchain metrics do not justify a retest of the $1,700 level, especially when considering BitMine’s impressive accumulation pace.

Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed the $63,000 mark on Thursday, but traders fear a correction ahead of Friday’s $1.4 billion options expiry on Deribit. The concerns stem from the US government bond yield climbing toward a level that many view as a warning sign. Is the $62,000 support level at risk?Key takeaways:Rising US Treasury yields signal debt concerns, negatively pressuring risk assets.Balanced Bitcoin options put-to-call volumes suggest limited downside from the $62,000 level.US 10-year Treasury yield (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingViewBitcoin ETF outflows are not a concern ahead of the Bitcoin options expiryThe 10-year Treasury yield’s approach to 4.6% signals investor anxiety over the expansion of US government debt and prospects for further monetary policy expansion to avert an economic recession. Bitcoin has felt the impact, trading sideways while the Nasdaq-100 Index sits merely 4% below its all-time high.The AI sector’s bullish momentum keeps pulling capital toward equities. Asian chipmaker SK Hynix oversubscribed IPO in the US helped push the sector higher on Thursday, led by Arm Holdings (ARM) 10% gains, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 7% rally and Micron’s 7% intraday gains.Wednesday brought $85 million in net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, ending a short three-day inflow run. Still, the figure does not confirm a reversal in institutional flows. More importantly, demand for Bitcoin options has stayed balanced between calls (buy) and puts (sell).Bitcoin options put-to-call volumes ratio at Deribit. Source: LaevitasCall options volume has outpaced put instruments over the past four days, reflecting reduced demand for downside movements. However, the upcoming weekly options expiry features an interesting setup as calls up to $62,500 total $137 million, while puts above $61,000 are at $121 million.Deribit BTC options open interest for July 10, BTC. Source: DeribitBitcoin bulls would gain significant ground with a move above $63,500 by the 8:00 AM UTC expiry on Friday, boosting their advantage to $190 million. Bears hold a smaller $100 million edge below $61,000, limiting their incentive without additional catalysts.Oil price decline could strengthen the demand for risk-on assetsA temporary truce in the Middle East could ease recession fears and shift money from fixed income into risk markets, likely pushing Bitcoin price higher. In contrast, continued strength in the AI sector drains capital from other investments while traders fear large Treasury issuance to cover growing debt.Related: Bitcoin peels back to $62K as Fed-wary futures traders cut risk: Is the BTC rally over?Crude WTI oil futures (left) vs. Nasdaq 100 Index futures (right). Source: TradingViewTraders should closely monitor whether Treasury yields will subside over the next week and if an aggravated war in Iran pushes oil prices higher. But with Bitcoin put options buying remaining restrained in recent sessions, the market appears positioned to strengthen the $62,000 support level.Bitcoin sits in a delicate spot where a successful expiry resolution above $63,500 could provide short-term relief, but sustained upward momentum would require a boost from the macro side. As long as these dynamics persist, the odds favor limited bullish momentum for Bitcoin in the near term.

Key takeaways:War, rising oil prices and Strategy’s Bitcoin sales put extra pressure on BTC’s $60,000 support.Strategy’s Bitcoin sales and fears that a global regulatory crackdown on crypto is being reignited are adding to fragile crypto market conditions.Bitcoin traded down 3.5% on Wednesday as new developments in the US-Iran war pushed oil prices higher and Japan’s bond markets faced renewed stress. That combination triggered broader de-risking across markets. At the same time, concerns over potential Bitcoin sales from Strategy intensified, with traders now bracing for a possible correction below $60,000.Nasdaq-100 futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingViewBitcoin’s failed attempt to reclaim $64,500 on Monday coincided with a downtrend in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Index. However, the stock market recovered some of its losses on Wednesday while Bitcoin was unable to bounce back from the $62,000 level. This underperformance suggests something else might be pressuring the cryptocurrency.The surge in Brent crude oil to $74 from $68 the prior week raised inflationary risks due to disruptions in energy supplies following the official breakdown of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding. US President Donald Trump declared the deal “over” after US strikes targeted Iranian sites in response to vessel attacks.Higher energy costs feed directly into broader price pressures, reducing the likelihood of near-term Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts and limiting odds of economic stimulus packages. Implied odds for FED Funds target rate on Sept. 16. Source: CME FedWatch ToolTraders are currently pricing 69% odds of interest rate hikes by September, up from 42% one month prior. This environment weighs heavily on risk assets, with Bitcoin still not widely perceived as an effective hedge.Global economic uncertainty amid Strategy’s sell pressureAdding to the cautious mood, President Trump demanded an end to US trade with Spain at the NATO summit, labeling the key ally a “wasted cause” for failing to commit to new defense spending targets. Such trade frictions risk slowing global economic activity and amplifying fears of global economic contraction.Japan 10-year government bonds yield. Source: TradingViewIn Japan, government bond yields jumped to a 30-year high, reflecting fears over a lack of central bank independence as the government attempts to adjust the Japan Central Bank’s policy mandate to “achieve a stronger economy.” Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries, which heightens the risk of global contagion.The latest round of Bitcoin sales, totaling $216 million, announced by Strategy (MSTR US) on Monday, negatively surprised many after it was revealed that they occurred outside the core $1.25 billion Monetization Program. The company’s 8-K filings stated the program accounts only for proceeds used to fund its cash reserves.Investors now fear persistent selling pressure from Strategy as the company manages its capital structure and debt obligations, with total annual dividends of $1.76 billion alone. Moreover, Strategy holds over $3.8 billion in convertible debt with the earliest call date before April 2027.Related: Lyn Alden says Bitcoin needs no savior as Strategy sells $216M of BTCStrategy convertible debt maturity and market value, USD. Source: StrategyOn the regulatory front, documents show India’s central bank strongly backing policies that lean toward prohibiting crypto activities, including barring banks from any exposure to virtual assets to safeguard financial stability. The India tax department additionally highlighted risks of evasion.The signals of tightening global oversight add another layer of negative pressure on Bitcoin’s price and market sentiment. Bitcoin bears remain in control, with risk appetite diminishing due to socio-political instability, prospects of a more restrictive US Fed monetary stance, and Strategy’s ongoing cash needs.Sentiment is likely to remain fragile, making a retest of the $60,000 support level increasingly probable in the near term.