Autor Cointelegraph By Jordan Finneseth

Like clockwork, the onset of a crypto bear market has brought out the “Bitcoin is dead” crowd who gleefully proclaim the end of the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.If #Bitcoin can collapse by 70% from $69,000 to under $21,000, it can just as easily fall another 70% down to $6,000. Given the excessive leverage in #crypto, imagine the forced sales that would take place during a sell-off of this magnitude. $3,000 is a more likely price target.— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) June 14, 2022The past few months have indeed been painful for investors, and the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen to a new 2022 low at $20,100, but the latest calls for the asset’s demise are likely to suffer the same fate as the previous 452 predictions calling for its death.Bitcoin obituary count. Source: 99BitcoinsResolute Bitcoiners have a bag full of tricks and on-chain metrics they use to determine when BTC is in a buy zone, and now is the time to take a closer look at them. Let’s see what time-tested metrics say about Bitcoin’s current price action and whether the 2021 bull market was BTC’s last hurrah. Some traders always buy bounces of the 200-week moving averageOne metric that has historically functioned as a solid level of support for Bitcoin is its 200-week moving average (MA), as shown in the following chart posted by market analyst Rekt Capital. BTC/USD vs. 200-week MA weekly chart. Source: TwitterAs shown in the area highlighted by the green circles, the lows established in previous bear markets have happened in areas near the 200-MA, which has effectively performed as a major support level. Most times, BTC price has had a tendency to briefly wick below this metric and then slowly work its way back above the 200-MA to start a new uptrend.Currently, BTC price is trading right at its 200-week MA after briefly dipping below the metric during the sell-off on June 14. While a move lower is possible, history suggests that the price will not fall too far below this level for an extended period. Multiyear price supports should holdAlong with the support provided by the 200-week MA, there are also several notable price levels from Bitcoin’s past that should now function as support should the price continue to slide lower. BTC/USDT 1-week chart. Source: TradingViewThe last time the price of BTC traded below $24,000 was in December 2020, when $21,900 acted as a support level that Bitcoin bounced off of prior to its run-up to $41,000. Should support at $20,000 fail to hold, the next support levels are found near $19,900 and $16,500, as shown on the chart above. Related: ‘Too early’ to say Bitcoin price has reclaimed key bear market support — AnalysisMVRV indicates its time to start accumulatingOne final metric that suggests BTC may be approaching an optimal accumulation phase is the market-value-to-realized-value ratio (MVRV), which currently sits at 0.969. Bitcoin market value to realized value ratio. Source: GlassnodeAs shown on the chart above, the MVRV score for Bitcoin has spent most of the time over the past four years above a value of 1, excluding two brief periods that coincided with bearish market conditions. The brief dip that took place in March 2020 saw the MVRV score hit a low of 0.85 and remain below 1 for a period of roughly seven days, while the bear market of 2018 to 2019 saw the metric hit a low of 0.6992 and spent a total of 133 days below a value of 1. While the data does not deny that BTC could see further price downside, it also suggests that the worst of the pullback has already taken place and that it is unlikely that the current extreme lows will persist for the long term. The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

The outlook across the cryptocurrency ecosystem continues to dim as the sharp downtrend that was initially sparked by the collapse of Terra now appears to have claimed the Singapore-based crypto venture capital firm Three Arrows Capital (3AC) as its next victim. As large crypto projects and investment firms begin to collapse on a weekly basis, the prospect of a long, drawn out bear market is a reality investors are beginning to accept. Based on a recent Twitter poll conducted by market analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user Plan C,  41.6% of respondents indicated that they thought the Bitcoin (BTC) bottom will fall between the $17,000 to $20,000 range.Total Bitcoin supply in profit held by short-term holders. Source: TwitterAddresses holding at least 1 BTC hits a new highIn the midst of the heightened volatility and rapid price decline for Bitcoin, many would expect to see traders dumping their holdings and fleeing to the sidelines in a bid to maintain their purchasing power. While it has indeed been the case that falling prices and liquidations have pushed many traders out of the market, low-priced Bitcoin has also attracted some buyers who have patiently been waiting for the right entry point. Number of Bitcoin addresses holding a balance ≥ 1 BTC. Source: GlassnodeData shows that the number of Bitcoin addresses that hold at least 1BTC has now hit a new all-time high and it appears that it will increase in the near future if sub-$20,000 BTC continues to attract buyers. Related: Is the bottom in? Raoul Pal, Scaramucci load up, Novogratz and Hayes weigh in“BTC is cheaper than it looks”Market tops and bottoms are usually overreactions to developments and retail traders have a tendency to FOMO when the price is rising, yet they are quick to sell when bad news starts to spread.A more nuanced analysis of the current value of Bitcoin was discussed by Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity, who posted the following chart and questioned if “BTC is cheaper than it looks?”Bitcoin price vs. value. Source: TwitterTimmer said, “If we consider a simple “P/E” metric for BTC to be the price/network ratio, then that ratio is back to 2017 and 2013 levels, even though BTC itself is only back to late 2020 levels. Valuation often is more important than price.” Timmer added that BTC is currently priced below its fair market value with the Bitcoin dormancy flow indicator, which shows “how technically oversold [it] is.” Bitcoin dormancy flow. Source: TwitterTimmer said,“Glassnode’s dormancy flow indicator is now to levels not seen since 2011.”Taken together, the rise in Bitcoin addresses holding more than 1 BTC combined with the asset’s historically oversold price and undervalued price/network ratio suggests that the downside possibility may not be as bad as many traders think. The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.