Autor Cointelegraph By Jordan Finneseth

Ethereum’s failure to close above $1.3K prompts analysts to predict more downside

The Ethereum (ETH) network moved one step closer to completing its transition to proof-of-stake (PoS) this week after the successful completion of its second-to-last major Merge trial on the Sepolia public test network.Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that following the Sepolia Merge on July 6, the price of Ether rallied to a high near $1,280 on July 8 but has since trended down to hit a daily low of 1,153 on July 10. ETH/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingViewWith the Ethereum network nearing the home stretch in its shift to PoS, here is what analysts are saying could happen with its price in the short term. Look out for a pullback to $1,020The recent price action for Ether that followed the successful Merge on Sepolia “is giving more clarity than $BTC atm [at the moment]” according to crypto trader and engineer Crypto Feras, who posted the following chart outlining the rejection at $1,280. ETH/USDT 2-hour chart. Source: TwitterCrypto Feras said, “PA is still showing clean rejection of the range-high. Potential bull-flag being formed (not enough yet). If we continue bleeding below flag support, $1,020 is coming.”Double top warning A potentially bearish formation on the chart for Ether was pointed out by analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user Profit Blue, who posted the following chart warning that “both BTC and ETH are forming the same double top pattern and bearish PA.”ETH/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TwitterProfit Blue said, “More downside is likely, pay attention to the important levels in this chart.”Based on the chart provided, the major levels of lower support are found at $1,170, $1,043 and $941. Related: BTC bull Michael Saylor: Ethereum is ‘obviously’ a securityAscending triangle formationOverall, the price of Ether has been trading in a range between $1,050 and $1,245 for the past couple of weeks as shown in the following tweet posted by Twitter user Nika Deshimaru, which lays out the major support and resistance levels for the top altcoin. Weekly S/R for $ETH: ~1050/1200Monthly S/R for #ETH: ~1100/1700 (argument for 1400 as a waypoint also)Daily S/R ~1130/1245Bullish TA lads want to see the triangle meme play out off the back of 1M/1W support confluence bounce.Bears looking at EMA failure, strong resistance. pic.twitter.com/icEe5Sq0m5— Nika Deshimaru (@Nikadesh) July 10, 2022As highlighted by Deshimaru, bulls need to break through the resistance at $1,200 if they want to make a sustained move higher, while bears are looking for the resistance provided by the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to hold firm and continue to apply downside pressure. The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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5 events that could put an end to the current crypto bear market

Much to the chagrin of cryptocurrency investors across the ecosystem, the bear market has officially set in and brought with it devastating price collapses that have left relatively few unscathed. As the popular topic of conversation now centers on bearish predictions of how low Bitcoin (BTC) will go and how long this iteration of the crypto winter will last, those with more experience on the matter know that it’s virtually impossible to predict the bottom and it would be wise to apply those energies elsewhere. Instead of focusing on the when of the end, perhaps it’s more constructive to explore what events might help pull the market out of the bear market depths and put it on a path to its next up cycle. Here’s a look at five potential catalysts that could pull the crypto market out of its current malaise.A successful Ethereum mergeOne of the most highly anticipated developments of the past five years has been the ongoing transition of the Ethereum network from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake. While the process has been a drawn-out one that has faced numerous setbacks, the official switch is now closer than ever following the successful completion of the Merge trial on the public test network Sepolia. Another big day for Ethereum as Sepolia testnet merges succesfully with the beacon chain!Sepolia = Merged✅Goerli = nextAnd then… Mainnet!The Merge is coming— Metis (@MetisDAO) July 6, 2022It’s possible that the building hype around the Ethereum Merge could help pull the crypto market out of its bearish state should the transition go off without a hitch, especially if it helps lead to more scalability and a faster user experience. As it stands right now, the Merge is set to take place in August 2022. It should be noted that a successful Merge could also lead to a “buy the rumor, sell the news” type of event where prices briefly pump due to the euphoria of crypto holders, only to fall back down once the dire state of the global financial system comes back to the forefront. Approval of a spot Bitcoin ETFAnother event that has been rumored for years that could spark a crypto revival is the passage of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) for United States markets. Ever since 2017, when the first BTC ETF proposed by the Winklevoss twins was denied by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), there has been one rejection after another for any physically-backed Bitcoin ETF proposal put forward. SEC’s resistance to a spot #Bitcoin ETF is becoming almost legendary,” SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce Hint: she hates it as much as we do. — Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) July 7, 2022

Reasons for the rejection typically revolve around the charge that cryptocurrency markets are easily manipulated and the proper safeguards are not in place to protect investors. If a spot ETF were to be approved, it would render this long-running objection moot and bring a new level of legitimacy to Bitcoin and the crypto asset class as a whole. This has the potential to usher in a new wave of institutional adoption that could bring about the end of the crypto winter as new funds flow into the market. The Fed reverses course“Don’t fight the Fed” is a common expression investors use to explain one of the most influential forces on global financial markets. After multiple years of easy money policies and near-zero interest rates, the U.S. Federal Reserve approved an interest rate hike of 0.25%, the first-rate hike in more than three years.Since then, the Fed has implemented two additional rate hikes of 0.5% and 0.75%, bringing the current benchmark interest rate to a range of 1.5% to 1.75%. During the same period of time, risk assets around the world have been falling in price, with Bitcoin declining from $48,000 at the end of March to its current price, which is trading near support at $20,000. The historic rise in the cryptocurrency and legacy markets that was witnessed in 2021 was largely driven by the easy money policies of the Fed, and it’s highly likely that a return to such policies would once again see funds flow into the crypto ecosystem. Major adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender2021 saw El Salvador become the first country in the world to adopt Bitcoin as a legal tender for use by its citizens. In April of 2022, the Central African Republic (CAR) became the second country to do so, pointing to a growing trend. While the use of BTC as a legal form of tender has been a long-running goal of crypto proponents and the decisions by El Salvador and CAR are worth celebrating, its adoption by such small players on the world stage has done little to promote more mainstream acceptance. These countries are considering making #Bitcoin legal tender: 1. #Mexico 2. #Panama 3. #Honduras 4. #Portugal 5. #Brazil 6. #Argentina 7. #Paraguay Countries where #Bitcoin is already legal tender: 1. #ElSalador 2. #CentralAfricanRepublic #BTC — ₿itcoin Xoe (@Bitcoin_Xoe) July 3, 2022

That would likely change, however, if a larger market such as Japan or Germany were to open up to officially promoting the use of BTC by their citizens for their daily purchases. Recent developments on the global stage, including conflicts and food shortages, are pushing governments to do things they never considered, and it’s not outside the realm of possibility that a larger economy could turn to Bitcoin as a currency of last resort as fiat currencies continue to lose their purchasing power. Related: EU-regulated firm Banking Circle adopts USDC stablecoinIntegration as a payment option by a large companyA common excuse as to why people don’t use Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies for their everyday purchases is because it’s not really accepted anywhere. While there are options available for accessing the value held in crypto, such as debit cards and online payment integrations with platforms like Shopify, the ability to make purchases by conducting transactions directly on a blockchain network is relatively limited. On several occasions, Elon Musk has demonstrated that the mere mention of integrating blockchain-based payments can spark a market rally for the token in question. JUST IN: Elon Musk’s Boring Company will accept #Dogecoin as a payment method for Loop rides.— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) July 6, 2022

Based on this and other examples of price pumps that followed speculation about a major adoption announcement, it’s likely that crypto payments being integrated by a major company such as Amazon or Apple could spark a bullish wave of momentum. Want more information about trading and investing in crypto markets?The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin price surges to $21.8K, but analysts warn that the move could be a fakeout

Hope springs eternal for many crypto investors after the market saw positive price movement on July 7, alongside gains in the traditional market. Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360The green day in the markets comes amid a backdrop of increasing jobless claims in the U.S., which is a possible signal that “the pressure on wages may have now peaked” according to Harris Financial Group Managing Partner Jamie Cox. According to Cox, a continuation of this trend could result in financial conditions that are “tight enough to allow the Fed to throttle back on the scale of rate increases.”Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that after trading near $20,400 for a majority of the day on July 7, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) spiked nearly 7% in the afternoon hours to hit a daily high of $21,860. BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingViewAs the crypto faithful attempt to navigate the choppy waters of the crypto winter in search of a market bottom, here’s what several analysts are predicting could be next for Bitcoin. The trend remains negativeTwitter user “Roman” posted the following chart noting that “Many are becoming euphoric and bullish as we have repeated similar candle patterns for the last 8 months.”BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TwitterIn Roman’s view, this is just the latest in a series of fakeouts that will trick a lot of traders into believing the bottom is in while in reality, the trend remains negative. Roman said, “Volume decreasing in a range is consolidation for continuation of trend. Not to mention thousands of inflows to exchanges before each top.”A recovery above $23,000 would be bullishAnother trader who holds the view that the trend remains decidedly negative is pseudonymous Twitter user Gilberto, who provided the following chart noting that Bitcoin’s price recently broke out of a pennant formation. BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TwitterGilberto said, “Bullish above $23K, for now daily trend is still downwards.”As for what the potential price path for Bitcoin could look like if it continues along the downward trend, market analyst Crypto Tony posted the following chart which outlines a “worst-case scenario” that could see BTC bottom near $12,000. BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: TwitterCrypto Tony said, “I do not think we see the start of the next impulse until later next year and a new bull run peak until 2024 – 2025. I am already positioned at $22-24K and will add if we drop to $17 – 15K.”Related: Bitcoin traders expect a ‘generational bottom,’ but BTC derivatives data disagreesTraders watch the 200-week moving averageWhen it comes to metrics that have been reliably used to help determine market bottoms, the 200-week moving average (MA) is one of the most popular and widely cited indicators that traders use to identify good buying opportunities. BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: TwitterWith Bitcoin now back below its 200-week MA for only the fourth time in its history, speculation has begun to mount about how long it will take to recover back above this line and what the appetite for trading will be like once it reaches there. In response to this possible scenario, independent market analyst Michaël van de Poppe posted the following tweet outlining what he thinks might occur once the 200-week MA is recovered. There’s probably an insane amount of liquidity above the 200-Week MA.If #Bitcoin breaks that level, I’m assuming we’ll probably be getting a run of $2-5K upwards in just a few days to $28-30K.And then the sentiment will flip too.— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) July 7, 2022The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $957 billion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 43.1%.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Survey shows 55% of crypto investors chose to HODL as Bitcoin and altcoin prices collapsed

Crypto and equities markets are down and aside from the positive news of Celsius repaying all of their debt and avoiding a massive liquidation, there are few on the spot reasons that are prompting investors to buy Bitcoin and altcoins.The collapse of  numerous decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, crypto investment funds and BTC trading 60% below its all-time high continue to weigh on sentiment but a few positive tidbits of data could be a sign that the market is ready to enter a consolidation phase.expect people will shift from a comatose state of fear to the realization that tens of billions of $ in forced spot selling (LFG, 3AC, lenders, miners) were a capitulation/risk transfer rivaled only by the Covid crash https://t.co/vAj7HfTKxf— light (@lightcrypto) July 7, 2022Crypto investors HODLAccording to a recent survey conducted by Appinio, despite the collapse in crypto prices and start of the bear market, “more than half (55%) of crypto investors held their investments in response to the recent crypto-asset market sell-off with just 8% selling their investments.”This suggests that the the investment conviction of a majority of crypto investors remains strong. The study also found that “33% of American investors are invested in crypto-assets,” an “40% of investors believe Bitcoin presents the best investment opportunity over the next three months.” American investors show resiliencyWhen it comes to how American investors responded to the broad pullback across financial markets, Appinio found that 65% of respondents held their investments and remain confident in their choices. When asked to pinpoint their most pressing short-term concerns, 66% of respondents cited rising inflation, 39% highlighted the state of the global economy and 34% identified international conflict. According to Callie Cox, U.S. investment analyst at eToro, these concerns combined with ongoing uncertainty “and an overall increase in cost of living and housing costs” have formed “a perfect storm of setbacks” for investors.Cox said, “Despite these factors, investors across generations are demonstrating a level of maturity and understanding and are not letting emotions dictate important money decisions.”Related: Bitcoin traders expect a ‘generational bottom,’ but BTC derivatives data disagreesBitcoin enters oversold territoryIn addition to the resiliency displayed by crypto investors, several on-chain metrics also suggest that the market may have hit oversold territory and is primed for a period of consolidation. The MVRV Z-score, which uses a combination of Bitcoin’s market value, realized value and z-score, has been a reliable tool to help identify when BTC is “extremely over or undervalued relative to its fair value” according to LookIntoBitcoin. Bitcoin MVRV Z-score. Source: LookIntoBitcoinAs shown on the chart above, periods where the red z-score has entered the lower green band have represented good buying opportunities for BTC, as have times when the market price dropped below the realized price, a feature shown by the blue and yellow lines at the top of the chart. The Bitcoin Investor Tool provided by LookIntoBitcoin likewise offers insight when buying or selling Bitcoin can produce outsized returns.Bitcoin Investor Tool. Source: LookIntoBitcoinThe green shaded areas on the chart represent periods of time where the price of Bitcoin is at a level that is considered historically low and may represent a good opportunity to buy. It should be noted that with the Bitcoin investor tool and the MVRV Z-Score, the time spent in bear market conditions varies and can go on for an extended period, so it would be wise for investors to not solely base their investment thesis on any particular metric or indicator in isolation.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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P2E gaming is in a rut, but Axie Infinity (AXS) could rebound for 3 key reasons

Play-to-earn gaming was one of the breakout sectors of the cryptocurrency market in 2021 and the trend was led by Axie Infinity (AXS), a mobile, blockchain-based game where users collect, breed, raise and battle nonfungible tokens (NFTs) called Axies for monetary rewards. As the market topped and then entered what has become a deep bear market, AXS price retraced from an all-time high near $170 to its current price at $15.20 following several setbacks, including a $600 million hack of the Ronin sidechain that hosts the game. AXS/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingViewCurrently, the future of P2E gaming remains in question and advocates are watching closely to see if this former unicorn had turned the ship around. Let’s take a look at some of the developments taking place within Axie Infinity and determine whether any of them are bullish for the short and long term.  The launch of land stakingThe most recent development to arise out of the Axie Infinity ecosystem is land stake parcels as a method for earning AXS tokens. How much can you earn in Land Staking?With Axie Infinity releasing land staking, we are curious about how much $AXS can holders accumulate per week!1 $AXS = PHP 785.75Thoughts on this? #AxieInfinity #PlayToEarn pic.twitter.com/jNmahoxWSi— Ikigai Gaming | Play-to-Earn News and Scholarships (@IkigaiGuild) July 4, 2022Based on the stats provided by the Ronin Chain explorer, land staking has been popular among holders and at least 87% of each of the different levels of plots have already been staked. Axie Infinity land statistics. Source: Axie InfinityIn addition to the success of land staking, several land plots recently sold for over 130 Ether (ETH) each, which suggests that the level of interest in the game is still high. While land owners have been excited about the new income opportunity, some community members have concerns about what effect the daily rewards of 11,194.62 AXS will have on the price of the token as the supply inflates. The platform also offers AXS staking with a current yield of 72%, but only 38.47% of the current circulating supply is being staked, which indicates that a majority of the supply is available in the open market and could potentially be sold off. The Ronin bridge reopensThe recent reopening of the Ronin bridge could also be another positive sign for Axie, especially considering that it had been disabled following a $600 million hack in March of this year. The Ronin Bridge is open!• All user funds are fully backed 1:1 by the new bridge.• The bridge has undergone an internal audit and two external audits.• We are still on track to release Land Staking this week.: https://t.co/ZRqslOwXpo pic.twitter.com/xOgsZHvVGc— Ronin (@Ronin_Network) June 28, 2022

According to Axie Infinity, the assets on the bridge are “fully backed 1:1,” and the project added 11 new validators, circuit breakers and the two external audits were completed. All user funds that were lost have been reimbursed, making members of the community whole.The reopening of the Ronin bridge and the launch of land staking has had a noticeable effect on the volume transacted, according to data from DappRadar. Axie Infinity statistics. Source: DappRadarThese developments have also prompted a slight uptick in the number of daily users and transactions on the network, but these figures remain well below the 2021 highs of 744,000 users and 6.7 million transactions. Related: Battle-hardened Ronin bridge reopens following $600M hack: Finance RedefinedThe community responds positively to the current changesCommunity reactions to the recent developments have been mostly positive, with many eager to re-engage with the game now that it has finally moved past a few major bumps. According to early Axie Infinity investor and Cointelegraph contributor Alyssa Exposito, “land staking has brought about a surge of energy that the community needed after we lost a huge amount in the treasury fund.”Exposito also mentioned the Axie creator program that enables community members to build out games on the software development kit (SDK) as something that is exciting users of the platform, “Especially with the integration of RON as a means to engage and transact on the network.”Exposito highlighted the ecosystem’s effort to get community members more involved with governance and building on the protocol as the developments that the community is most excited about. Exposito said, “I think once people begin to see and take notice of how the project enables and helps fund other creators to build on top of it, it’ll gain more traction on the possibilities of blockchain gaming.”The main concerns discussed by members of the Axie community revolve around the circulating supply of AXS, how staking rewards affect the circulating supply and price, and the various token lockups and vesting schedules that could lead to large sales and price dumps in the future. Generally, the protocol has taken the necessary steps to recover from the Ronin hack and it seems to be keeping up to date with the major milestones outlined on its roadmap. Aside from what the project can do internally, its fate is largely tied to the fate of the P2E sector as a whole. The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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