Autor Cointelegraph By Jordan Finneseth

3 red flags that signal a crypto project may be misleading investors

Satoshi Nakamoto left a large pair of shoes to fill after releasing the code for Bitcoin (BTC) to the world, helping the network get established, then vanishing without so much as a trace. Over the years, the crypto ecosystem has seen many developers and protocol creators rise in stature to become crypto messiahs for faithful holders who eventually have their best-laid plans end in catastrophe when the protocol is hacked, rugged or abandoned by whimsical developers.2022 is hardly halfway complete and the year has already seen a particularly bad stretch of good intentions gone awry, which have collectively helped plunge the market into bear-market territory. Here’s a closer look at each of these instances to help provide insight into how similar outcomes can be avoided in the future. Some developers are anonymous for a reasonSatoshi may have successfully remained anonymous while launching Bitcoin, but in most instances since then, having anonymous developers has turned out to be a red flag. Many anonymous developers cite personal safety reasons for taking this route. While this is a valid reason in some cases, sometimes anon developers are hiding from previous misdoings or pre-planning to cover their tracks in the case of future offenses. A flagrant example of this was Squid Game (SQUID), a Netflix-show-inspired memecoin that rallied 45,000% within a few days after launch, only for traders to realize that they were unable to sell the tokens on any exchange.Investors eventually discovered that all the developers were anonymous and that all social media channels were blocked from comments. The crypto community has grown to be rather distrustful of anonymous developers and this can be seen in the negative reaction to the revelation that the founder of the Azuki nonfungible token (NFT) project was involved with three other NFT projects that were ultimately abandoned, leaving their holders with little to show except worthless jpegs. Another instance of an anonymous developer going rogue occurred in 2022 when it was revealed that the anonymous Wonderland (TIME) treasury manager @0xSifu turned out to be an alleged financial criminal, along with QuadrigaCX co-founder Michael Patryn.1/ Today allegations about our team member @0xSifu will circulate. I want everyone to know that I was aware of this and decided that the past of an individual doesn’t determine their future. I choose to value the time we spent together without knowing his past more than anything.— Daniele never asks to DM (@danielesesta) January 27, 2022The revelation of this connection resulted in the collapse of several popular projects including Wonderland and Popsicle Finance, while a significant amount of criticism was directed at Abracadabra.Money creator Daniele Sestagalli. Prior to the @0xSifu revelation, all three protocols were seeing increased adoption, but , each protocol is a mere shadow of its former success.Having anonymous developers removes accountability from the equation and is increasingly becoming a red flag when dealing with multi-million dollar cryptocurrency protocols. Beware of cult personalitiesFinance is no stranger to cult personalities and crypto is not immune to this phenomenon.Long-time crypto pundits will recall Roger Ver being called “Bitcoin Jesus” and him leading the charge to fork Bitcoin Core and create Bitcoin Cash (BCH). Billionaire Dan Larimer also comes to mind, and investors will recall his helping EOS (EOS) raise $4 billion during the initial coin offering (ICO) boom of 2017 to 2018. In each instance, it was a fervent flock of followers that propelled each project forward. Neither BCH nor EOS managed to reclaim their all-time highs during the 2021 bull market despite all the hype about their future when first launched. This is possibly because a portion of the hype is centered around the personalities behind the projects. A more recent example includes the collapse of Fantom ecosystem token prices after decentralized finance (DeFi) developer Andre Cronje deactivated his Twitter account and informed the community that he was leaving the crypto space entirely.Cronje had become so popular that many people would buy a token just because he was involved with it, and when he left, many of these investors dumped their holdings, which negatively affected the tokens’ prices. Previously, Fantom’s brand/marketing was Andre Cronje.Now we don’t have that identity.It’s not a suggestion to focus on branding/marketing right now, it’s an absolute neccessity.— Jack The Oiler (@Jacktheoiler) May 7, 2022

While Cronje was doing what he thought was right and had no ill intentions toward the community, his actions appear to have negatively affected the crypto market due to his popularity within the community and the dedication of his followers. The main takeaway is to be vigilant when a developer is seen as incapable of doing wrong and remember that cult-like followings can have outcomes that ripple beyond their community. Related: Court documents reveal Do Kwon dissolved Terraform Labs Korea days before LUNA crashDecentralization requires involving the communityAnother red flag to be on the lookout for is decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) and DeFi protocols that operate in a manner that appears to be more centralized than their name would suggest. It’s common for many protocols to claim that they are decentralized, yet they rely on centralized service providers like Amazon Web Service to ensure that they function properly. Due to a major AWS outage, dYdX exchange is currently down. We are experiencing greater latency across services and impaired functionality with endpoints not working and the website not loading. For the most up to date status updates, subscribe to: https://t.co/EvjpZdRyby— dYdX (@dYdX) December 7, 2021

Another pertinent example is when a project that claims to offer token holders governance rights makes a major protocol decision without consulting the community for feedback and approval. The move by Terra to add BTC to its treasury as collateral for the TerraUSD (UST) stablecoin made headlines and was lauded by many, but the move was never put to a vote within the Terra community to see what token holders thought. While there is a good chance that the plan still would have been approved and the collapse of Terra still would have occurred, the blame might have fallen more on the community and less on Do Kwon, the project’s leader. It’s also worth mentioning that Do Kown had developed quite the cult following and was frequently insulting a variety of people on Twitter.One of the main tenets of the cryptocurrency sector is adherence to decentralization and failure to do so often leads to a compromised network and dissatisfied investors.Want more information about trading and investing in crypto markets?The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bearish head and shoulders pattern forces Ethereum traders to re-adjust their price targets

Crypto markets remain volatile and a handful of seasoned traders believe that the bearish trend will continue as long as stock markets are chasing new lows.Most investors would agree that crypto is now in a bear market and the current price action for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) suggest that capitulation and consolidation are a ways away.Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that Ether still struggles to reclaim the $2,000 level as support and this zone has been a notable support and resistance since February 2021.ETH/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingViewEther needs a monthly close above $2,250Insight into the major support level Ether needs to clear by the monthly close to regain a bullish outlook was touched on by market analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user ‘Rekt Capital’, who posted the following chart indicating the area near $2,269 is a key level. ETH/USD 3-day chart. Source: TwitterRekt Capital said, “ETH is climbing closer and closer towards the key ~$2,250 level. The main question is whether that Monthly level will flip into new resistance once reached.”Traders target $1,650The possibility of a breakdown from the current support level was outlined in the following chart posted by crypto trader and pseudonymous Twitter user ‘Crypto Tony’, who is “expecting another drop further into the OB” where they are looking to have some orders filled. ETH/USDT 3-day chart. Source: TwitterCrypto Tony said, “This move will be needed to engineer liquidity to propel us into the corrective wave. From there we see how it goes.”Related: ‘Huge testing milestone’ for Ethereum: Ropsten testnet Merge set for June 8Ether’s head and shoulders structure is completeA potentially bearish sign appeared with the completion of a head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart, a point highlighted in the following chart posted by ‘CryptoCharts’.ETH/USD 1-week chart. Source: TwitterCryptoCharts said, “With the recent sideways crypto market, we can clearly spot it out as if it’s a bounce or a breakout on the support highlighted. Here on the short-term timeframe, I will be keeping an eye closely to spot the breakout, or reversal breakout on the current support will lead the price towards the next support formed close to $1,300. Any bounce back will be continuing to rise toward $2,450.”The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Contrarian Bitcoin investors identify buy zones even as extreme fear grips the market

Bitcoin (BTC) support at the $30,000 level has proven to be quite resilient amidst the turmoil of the past two weeks with many tokens in the top 100 now showing signs of consolidation after prices bounced off their recent lows.Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.meDuring high volatility and sell-offs, it’s difficult to take a contrarian view and traders might consider putting some distance from all the noise and negative news-flow to focus on their core convictions and reason for originally investing in Bitcoin.Several data points suggest that Bitcoin could be approaching a bottom which is expected to be followed by a lengthy period of consolidation. Let’s take a look at what experts are saying.BTC may have already reached “max pain”The spike in realized losses by Bitcoin holders was touched on by ‘Root’ a pseudonymous analyst who tweeted the following chart and said realized losses are “reaching bear market highs.”Bitcoin realized profit/loss. Source: TwitterWhile previous bear markets have seen a greater level of realized losses than are currently present, they also suggest that the pain could soon begin to subside, which would allow Bitcoin to begin the slow path to recovery. Analysts have also pointed out that “Bitcoin’s RSI is now entering a period that has historically preceded outsized returns on investment for long-term investors.”BTC/USD RSI. Source: TwitterAccording to Rekt Capital, “Previous reversals from this area include January 2015, December 2018, and March 2020. All bear market bottoms.”Strong hands hold firmAdditional on-chain evidence that Bitcoin may soon see a revival was provided by Jurrien Timmer, Global Director of Macro at Fidelity. According to the Bitcoin Dormancy Flow, a metric that displays the dormancy flow for Bitcoin that “roughly speaking is a measure of strong vs. weak hands.”Bitcoin dormancy flow. Source: TwitterTimmer said, “The entity-adjusted dormancy flow from Glassnode is now at the lowest level since the 2014 and 2018 lows.”One metric that suggests that the weak hands may be nearing capitulation is the Advanced NVT signal, which looks at the Network Value to Transactions Ratio (NVT) and includes standard deviation (SD) bands to identify when Bitcoin is overbought or oversold.Advanced NVT signal. Source: LookIntoBitcoinAs shown on the chart above, the advanced NVT signal which is highlighted in light blue is now more than 1.2 standard deviations below the mean, suggesting that Bitcoin is currently oversold.Previous instances of the NVT signal falling below the -1.2 SD level have been followed by increases in the price of BTC, although it can sometimes take several months to manifest. Related: Bitcoin price predictions abound as traders focus on the next BTC halving cycleHash rate hits a new all-time highAside from complex on-chain metrics, there are several other factors that suggest Bitcoin could see a boost in momentum in the near future. Data from Glassnode shows that the hashrate for the Bitcoin network is now at an all-time high, indicating that there has been a substantial increase in investments in mining infrastructure with the most growth happening in the United States. Bitcoin mean hash rate vs. BTC price. Source: GlassnodeBased on the chart above, the price of BTC has historically trended higher alongside increases in the mean hash rate, suggesting that BTC could soon embark on an uptrend. One final bit of hope can be found looking at the Google Trends data for Bitcoin, which notes a spike in search interest following the recent market downturn. Interest in searching for Bitcoin over time. Source: Google TrendsPrevious spikes in Google search interest have largely coincided with an increase in the price of Bitcoin, so it’s possible that BTC could at least see a relief bounce in the near future if sidelined investors see this as an opportunity to scoop up some Satoshis at a discount. The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin price predictions abound as traders focus on the next BTC halving cycle

Terra’s recent collapse has been repeatedly singled out as the main source of weakness affecting crypto assets, but it’s much more likely that a combination of factors are behind the start of this current bear market.At the same time that the market was reeling from the Terra saga, the 2-year mark for the next Bitcoin (BTC) halving was also crossed and this is a metric some analysts have used as an indicator for the end of a bull market.BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: TradingViewAs shown on the chart above, previous cycles have seen BTC hit a peak followed by a price decline that first drops below the 50-day moving average (MA) then a culminating capitulation event that thrusts the price below the 200-day MA. Many traders were thrown off by the lack of a blow-off top in the most recent bull market cycle because this phenomenon has typically marked the late stage of an exhausted trend.Traders also questioned the validity of the popular stock-to-flow model after BTC failed to hit $100,000 before the end of 2021.Bitcoin stock-to-flow model. Source: LookIntoBitcoinDuring previous market cycles, BTC was trading well above the S2F model at this stage in its progression with the model variance in the positive. Currently, the model variance is giving a reading of -0.86 while the price of BTC is well below the S2F line. This lack of a blow-off top has prompted some traders to stand by earlier calls for one final price run-up that will see BTC hit $100,000 before entering an extended bear market, but that remains to be seen. Looking forward to being bearish af after this wave up over 100k that I’m expecting completes. Seeing the way sentiment is now during a mid-cycle correction means the correction that corrects the entire bull cycle from 3k to 100k+ is going to be absolutely brutal. $BTC— CrediBULL Crypto (05.27) (@CredibleCrypto) May 17, 2022Maybe the market will bottom in November?While some still hold out hope for one last hoorah before the bear market really sets in, a more pessimistic view is predicting another 6 months of price decline before the market hits a bottom. BTC/USD 1-month chart. Source: TradingViewBased on previous cycles, the low in the market came roughly 13 months after the market top, which would suggest a bottom sometime around December of this year if the current trend holds. This is further validated when looking at the time between a market bottom and the next Bitcoin halving event. BTC/USD 1-month chart. Source: TradingViewDuring the previous cycles, each cycle low was hit roughly 17 to18 months before the next halving. The next BTC halving is predicted to occur on May 5, 2024, which would suggest that that the market will bottom in November or December of 2022. Related: Bitcoin is discounted near its ‘realized’ price, but analysts say there’s room for deep downsideTraders are still permabulls despite the current price actionAs far as price predictions go, there is far less consensus on this matter due to BTC’s underperformance during the last cycle where most traders were expecting $100,000.Traders continue to call for BTC to the surpass $100,000 mark in the not-too-distant future and a handful are holding on to the penultimate $1 million target.Bitcoin price prediction chart. Source: LookIntoBitcoinA general range of possible prices outlined by LookIntoBitcoins’ price prediction tool suggests a BTC high of $238,298, while the delta top indicator indicates a high of $119,886. The terminal price indicator is currently providing a price prediction at $107,801.  The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Socios fan tokens rally 40%+ after Chiliz rolls out mainnet upgrade and token burn plan

In times of high stress and market turmoil, sports entertainment has served as a valuable escape for people around the world as they get a chance to root for their favorite players and teams while briefly forgetting about the worries of the world. Amid the ongoing market volatility and falling crypto prices, sports fans have cause to rejoice as multiple fan tokens have bucked the downtrend on May 18 to post 40% plus gains. Top 7 coins with the highest 24-hour price change. Source: Cointelegraph Markets ProHere’s a look at the recent developments that have helped propel Paris Saint-Germain (PSG), Juventus (JUV), FC Barcelona (BAR) and other fan tokens to the top of the charts on May 18.Chiliz Testnet Phase 2The biggest driver of momentum for fan tokens appears to be coming from new developments on the Chiliz protocol, which operates Socios, a blockchain-based sports entertainment platform. On May 17, Chiliz revealed the launch of Jalapeno, the second phase of its Scoville testnet, which is part of the broader launch of the Chiliz mainnet. – JALAPENO starts! ️✅ DEX: PepperSwap✅ Fan Token Test Surveys⚡️ $CHZ pic.twitter.com/eqXPk1HeIT— Chiliz ($CHZ) – Powering Socios.com ⚡ (@Chiliz) May 17, 2022A few of the new features to be tested in Phase 2 include the launch of PepperSwap, which will provide a decentralized exchange and fan token test surveys, which allow token holders to begin participating in surveys and governance votes on the protocol. Eventually, users will be able to interact with the community of specific fan tokens and vote on developments that they would like to see for that club through fan token surveys, which is one of the features in which many investors were initially interested. Fan tokens list at a new exchangeA new listing at BitPanda could be another reason why fan tokens rallied on May 18. Say bonjour to one of our latest #CryptoWednesday listings: $PSG, the native token of @PSG_inside + @socios that gives fans the power to vote on club decisions and access VIP events. pic.twitter.com/ISko87ZKt3— Bitpanda (@bitpanda) May 18, 2022

According to BitPanda’s Twitter, at least seven fan tokens listed on May 18.Related: Exploiting sports fans through NFTs won’t lead to a WToken burns reduce supplyAnother factor providing a boost to fan token prices is the Chiliz Head2Head burn competition which burns a portion of the fan token circulating supply based on the results of live matches between clubs. #Head2Head Burn Fan Tokens will be burned for every goal scored during @juventusfc vs @inter at 21:00 CEST today  1 x $JUV, $INTER goal = 2,000 Fan Tokens 1 x $JUV, $INTER win = 4,000 Fan Tokens ⚡ $CHZ pic.twitter.com/c4ugx2xM8B— Chiliz ($CHZ) – Powering Socios.com ⚡ (@Chiliz) May 11, 2022

Based on this design, the Head2Head burn mechanism will affect the tokenomics of a project over time by helping to reduce the circulating supply of tokens, which has the potential to result in a price increase if demand stays elevated. It also provides a way to see the performance of a team reflected in its token supply, with better performing teams seeing more of their token supply burned. If the Head2Head burn process proves effective, it could potentially increase the value of certain teams due to the reduced circulating supply.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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