Autor Cointelegraph By Jesse Coghlan

Bitcoin could be setting up for a multimonth price decline, after a rally in April driven mainly by futures traders while spot demand declined, according to the crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant.Bitcoin gained around 20% in April, rising from $66,000 to a peak of $79,000 in a rally “driven entirely by growth in perpetual futures demand,” CryptoQuant said in a report on Thursday. Meanwhile, spot demand for Bitcoin contracted throughout the rally, “indicating that the market’s marginal buyer was speculative, not fundamental,” it said.“The divergence between rising price and contracting spot demand is one of the clearest on-chain signals that price gains are speculative rather than structural,” CryptoQuant added.Bitcoin is trading around $77,000 at the time of writing, rising 2.1% over the past 24 hours. CryptoQuant said Bitcoin’s correction from $79,000 last month is consistent with rallies led only by strong futures demand.Current demand for Bitcoin mirrors a pattern at the start of the 2022 bear market, when futures demand surged while spot demand dropped, a setup that “ultimately preceded a sustained price decline.”Source: CryptoQuantRelated: Bitcoin price hits one-week low as $100 oil sparks fresh Asia crisis fears“History suggests this setup carries meaningful downside risk as Bitcoin remains in a bear market regime,” CryptoQuant said.The report is in contrast with a note on Tuesday from Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan, which said the Bitcoin treasury company Strategy has been the “single biggest factor” in Bitcoin’s recent rally.“There have been multiple drivers of the recent rally, including strong buying from ETFs [exchange-traded funds], $3.8 billion since March 1, and renewed purchases by long-term holders. But Strategy has been the single biggest factor,” Hougan argued.CryptoQuant added that its Bull Score Index, which analyzes market and network activity to gauge market sentiment on a scale of 100, fell from 50 to 40 in April despite the price increase.“The Bull Score returning back to 40 indicates conditions are ‘getting bearish’ and places the market in the same range that historically preceded continued price weakness,” CryptoQuant said.Magazine: Bitcoin will not hit $1M by 2030, says veteran trader Peter BrandtCointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

The US Senate on Thursday unanimously approved a resolution banning its members and staff, who are often exposed to sensitive information, from using prediction markets.The resolution, passed by unanimous consent, changed the Senate’s rules and took immediate effect. “Engaging in any way in a prediction market or trying to place bets where we might have inside information deteriorates the confidence that our constituents have in us,” Republican Senator Bernie Moreno, who introduced the resolution, said on the Senate floor.“By changing the standing rules of the Senate, what we’re doing is allowing our constituents to know, once and for all, that no member of the United States Senate, no member of the staff of the United States Senate, can ever use that inside information as a way to monetize this job whatsoever,” he added.Source: Bernie MorenoThe resolution comes after a special forces soldier involved in the plan to capture former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was charged last week, on April 23, with using classified information to make bets on Polymarket, as lawmakers also air concerns over well-timed bets on the Iran war. He has pleaded not guilty. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said on the Senate floor that “of all the issues we debate in Washington, this falls clearly in the category of a ‘no-brainer.’”“We must never allow Congress to turn into a casino where members representing the public can gamble on wars, or economic crises, or elections,” he said.Related: Insider trading backlash forces Polymarket to step up surveillance“We should go further; this is a good start, but not enough,” Schumer said. “The administration and its employees must apply these very same rules too, particularly this administration, which shows such a troubling affinity to corruption and self-dealing.”Republican Representative Ashley Hinson posted to X that she would introduce a similar resolution to ban the use of prediction markets in the House.Polymarket posted on X that it fully supported the Senate resolution and its terms of service “already prohibit such conduct, but codifying this into law is a step forward for the industry.”Tarek Mansour, co-founder and CEO of rival prediction market platform Kalshi, also celebrated the resolution in a post on X, adding that it “already proactively blocks members of Congress and enforces against insider trading.”Magazine: How to fix suspected insider trading on Polymarket and KalshiCointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

US Senator Thom Tillis says he will push the Senate Banking Committee to advance the stalled crypto market structure bill, as the text of the bill has made progress and is ready for another vote.Tillis, a key Senate Banking Republican, told reporters on Wednesday that he would ask Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott “to move forward with scheduling a markup” when the Senate is back in session on May 11.“I think that we’ve made a lot of progress,” Tillis said. “But at the end of the day, until you have a forcing mechanism of a markup, everybody that really doesn’t want it done is going to have one more thing that they want to talk about, and I think it’s time to get it before the committee, move it forward.”The Senate’s crypto market structure bill would lay out how the US’s two most influential financial market regulators would oversee crypto. The House passed its version of the bill, the CLARITY Act, in July, but the Senate’s version has been plagued by delays as lawmakers and lobbyists have sought to edit provisions.Thom Tillis holding a press gaggle with reporters on Wednesday. Source: Chase WilliamsThe Senate Banking Committee delayed the bill’s markup in January after major crypto lobbyist Coinbase pulled its support over a provision banning crypto exchanges from paying stablecoin yields.Banking lobbyists have fought to keep the provision in the legislation, arguing that banning third parties from paying stablecoin yields closes a perceived loophole in the GENIUS Act, which prohibits stablecoin issuers from paying yield.“I believe we’ve heard the concerns [and] addressed a lot of the concerns of the bank,” Tillis said. “There may be a few more that we can get there if they want to come and work in good faith; otherwise, I’m going to encourage the chair to move forward with the markup.”Related: Key US senator lifts block on Trump’s Fed pick Kevin WarshTillis added that he hoped to publicly release the legislative text at least four days before the markup, after crypto and banking stakeholders are given a preview.Other provisions at issue in the bill, which senators have worked to resolve, concern ethics and protecting software developers.On Tuesday, Politico reported that Tillis said the crypto bill would “need to address the law enforcement concerns” around a provision that would protect crypto software developers from prosecution if others commit illegal activity on their platforms.Tillis told reporters on Wednesday that he was “generally in support” of the progress Senator Cynthia Lummis had made on the provision.On Monday, Tillis backed a demand popular among Senate Banking Democrats, saying he wouldn’t support the bill unless it included ethics provisions limiting how government officials can use and promote crypto.“There has to be ethics language in the bill before it leaves the Senate, or I’ll go from one of the people working on negotiating it to voting against it,” Tillis said.Magazine: Will the CLARITY Act be good — or bad — for DeFi?Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

Shares in the Bitcoin-buying company Twenty One Capital climbed in after-hours trading on Wednesday after its majority shareholder, Tether, proposed a three-way merger with two other crypto companies.Tether said Wednesday that it intends to vote in favor of a proposed merger between Twenty One Capital and Bitcoin payments company Strike, followed by a proposed merger of the combined company with Bitcoin mining firm Elektron Energy.Tether added that if the mergers go through, “Strike would be contributing a profitable financial services platform, global distribution and regulatory infrastructure and Elektron would be adding large-scale Bitcoin mining infrastructure, operational depth and proven execution capabilities.”Shares in Twenty One Capital (XXI) ended trading on Wednesday down 1.7% at $7.83, but jumped to a high of $9.28 after hours before settling at $8.35 for a gain of 6.6% after the bell.Shares in Twenty One Capital on Wednesday surged after hours. Source: Google FinanceThe company has the second-largest Bitcoin holdings among public companies and its share price has slid over 10.5% so far this year alongside Bitcoin’s decline.Tether did not share the terms of the mergers or a timeline for their completion, but proposed that Elektron founder and CEO Raphael Zagury serve as president of the new company.It added that Jack Mallers, the founder and CEO of Strike and co-founder and CEO of Twenty One Capital, would also serve in an executive role.“The proposed leadership structure is intended to combine Mallers’ product, brand, and consumer Bitcoin leadership with Zagury’s capital markets, operating, and execution experience,” Tether said.Related: Tether launches open-source mining framework to unify Bitcoin infrastructureTwenty One Capital went public in December through a merger with Cantor Equity Partners and came to market with holdings of 43,500 Bitcoin and an aim of increasing its Bitcoin per share.Tether said if the mergers are successful, Twenty One would move “beyond treasury exposure alone and toward a platform with operating businesses, recurring revenue opportunities, and long-term Bitcoin accumulation capabilities.”Twenty One Capital currently holds 43,514 Bitcoin and is behind only Strategy, Inc. in terms of public company Bitcoin holdings, which holds 818,334 Bitcoin.Magazine: Adam Back says current demand is ‘almost’ enough to send Bitcoin to $1MCointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Tuesday sued the state of Wisconsin in the agency’s latest effort to assert jurisdiction over prediction markets after the state sued multiple platforms.The CFTC said in a statement that it filed the lawsuit against Wisconsin “in response to the state’s lawsuits against Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, Robinhood, and Coinbase, five CFTC-regulated prediction markets.”“States cannot circumvent the clear directive of Congress,” CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said. “Our message to Wisconsin is the same as to New York, Arizona, and others: if you interfere with the operation of federal law in regulating financial markets, we will sue you.”It is the agency’s fifth lawsuit against a US state that seeks to halt action against prediction markets. The CFTC sued New York on Friday and filed lawsuits against Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois earlier this month after the states sued prediction market platforms.Michael Selig speaking on stage at Bitcoin 2026 in Las Vegas on Monday. Source: YouTubeWisconsin sued the five companies on Thursday, and like many US state authorities, argued that prediction markets offering sports-related event contracts are illegal betting that requires state gaming licenses.It is an assertion the platforms and the CFTC have rebuffed in the past, arguing the contracts are regulated only under federal law.The CFTC argued in its latest complaint, filed alongside the Justice Department’s Civil Division in a Wisconsin federal court, that it has “exclusive jurisdiction” over the event contracts on prediction markets, regulated as designated contract markets under federal law.Related: With no bipartisan leadership, CFTC won’t ‘slow down‘ on rulemaking“Wisconsin’s attempt to criminalize and shut down federally regulated markets intrudes on the exclusive federal scheme Congress designed to oversee national swaps markets,” the CFTC wrote in its complaint.The agency asked the court to rule that state gambling laws do not apply to CFTC-regulated designated contract markets and issue a permanent injunction prohibiting Wisconsin from taking action against prediction markets.The CFTC’s complaint also named Wisconsin Governor Anthony Evers, Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul and the Wisconsin Gaming Division and its administrator, John Dillett.The Wisconsin Department of Justice, the state’s Division of Gaming and Governor Evers’ office were contacted for comment.Magazine: How to fix suspected insider trading on Polymarket and KalshiCointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.