Autor Cointelegraph By Ciaran Lyons

Bitget CEO Gracy Chen isn’t convinced that Bitcoin’s recent rally to $79,000 marks the end of the bear market.She is keeping a significant portion of her portfolio in stablecoins and watching for a drop of more than $25,000 from current prices as a potential level to buy back into Bitcoin. “I would say $50K is the number that I’m looking at for my personal Bitcoin buyback sort of price,” Chen tells the Trade Secrets show.That being said, Chen isn’t claiming to have any special insight into where Bitcoin’s notoriously unpredictable price is headed. She also thinks its possible Bitcoin could end the year $20,000 higher. “I’m just an exchange CEO,” Chen laughs. “We are not good at analyzing Bitcoin price. We’re just good at providing a trading platform for all the analysts and traders to trade,” she adds.Gracy Chen isn’t expecting Bitcoin to be up only from here. (CoinMarketCap)Chen is also far from alone in expecting Bitcoin to potentially move lower, despite Bitcoin being up more than 20% in the past week.Transform Ventures founder Michael Terpin told Trade Secrets at the beginning of August that “we still have more pain to go.” Terpin believes that Bitcoin will ultimately fall “66%” from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,100. “I think that brings us down into the 40s, and I think that’s about where we’re gonna go,” Terpin says. Before this week’s rally, veteran trader Peter Brandt also tipped Bitcoin’s price to reach a bottom on Oct. 4.Chen isn’t putting a firm date on Bitcoin’s potential move to $50,000, she just believes it’s likely:“I wouldn’t say whatever I predicted is that meaningful, but again it’s just my personal sort of thought around now. I don’t have a particular date or month in mind for when I think Bitcoin could hit $50,000. Later this year might be a good estimate, or maybe next year.”While Chen is humble enough to describe herself as “just an exchange CEO,” that really undersells what she has accomplished over her 36 years.Who is Gracy Chen?Chen first studied Applied Mathematics at the National University of Singapore before earning an MBA from MIT Sloan School of Management.But her career did not begin in business — unless show business counts. In 2014, she joined Phoenix TV as a host and producer, where she began attending financial events and interviewing technology and business leaders, experiences that would eventually lead her toward entrepreneurship.Over the next few years, Chen founded two companies. The first was Accumulous, which provided platform-as-a-service solutions for businesses in China, covering areas including labor subcontracting and income settlement. In 2017, she went on to launch ReigVR.Chen became interested in crypto after a meeting with billionaire Bitcoin investor Tim Draper and his crypto team. This led her to begin in crypto marketing roles, before ultimately becoming the managing director of Bitget in 2022 and then taking on the CEO role in 2024.Gracy Chen is not interested in altcoinsDespite running a crypto exchange with many different tokens, Chen is not particularly enamoured with altcoins. “Most of my portfolio is in either Bitcoin or the S&P 500. I don’t trade that much because of my busy schedule running a large exchange,” Chen says.Chen estimates that “less than 1%” of her portfolio is in Ethereum and Solana.There is one altcoin that she has been excited about, however. “I do like Hyperliquid, and I think HYPE also went up a lot…because of the more crypto-friendly policy towards them. So that’s probably one coin that I’m bullish on right now, especially if CFTC really finds a way to let Hyperliquid enter the US market properly,” Chen says. President Trump this week indicated that the CFTC chair Mike Selig was working on allowing Hyperliquid to officially trade in regulated US markets.Chen is not shy about her hatred for memecoins and is fairly confident that we won’t see another memecoin season like in previous cycles, because too many investors have been burned. “Retails are not stupid,” Chen says.Gracy Chen does not believe Bitcoin will reach $1M by 2030Chen also doubts Bitcoin can reach $1 million by 2030, a question that has become a recurring topic on Trade Secrets. Markus Thielen recently told the show that the target looks unlikely, despite bullish calls from Brian Armstrong and Cathie Wood.Chen points to Bitcoin’s diminishing returns across its four-year cycles as a key reason.“The reason being if you look at the past four-year Bitcoin cycles, the ratio of the all-time high in that cycle to the all-time low in that cycle keeps decreasing,” she says.Cointelegraph publishes long-form journalism, analysis and narrative reporting produced by Cointelegraph’s in-house editorial team with subject-matter expertise. All articles are edited and reviewed by Cointelegraph editors in line with our editorial standards. Some articles contain affiliate links, from which Cointelegraph may earn a commission. These relationships do not influence which products we review or our editorial conclusions. Content published in here does not constitute financial, legal or investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals where appropriate. Cointelegraph maintains full editorial independence.

The numbers behind the oft-cited prediction that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2030 simply don’t add up, according to Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research.“It’s mathematically impossible,” Thielen tells Cointelegraph on Trade Secrets, arguing that Bitcoin’s historical capital inflows over the past 15 years fall far short of the amount it would need to attract over the next four years to reach $1 million. “We have seen $1 trillion US dollars of inflow to bring the market cap really to $1 trillion. To $1 million [per] Bitcoin. It’s 15x, I think, from here,” Thielen says.At the time of publication, Bitcoin’s market cap is around $1.28 trillion, with its price trading at $63,868, according to CoinMarketCap.Thielen estimates that Bitcoin would need to attract another $15 trillion in capital to reach a per Bitcoin price of $1 million. This is equivalent to roughly 25% of the US stock market’s total value flowing into Bitcoin over the next four years.“It would require trillions,” says Thielen“It takes trillions and trillions of dollars to move the price really materially higher, and that’s why we are not as bullish as those arguments which we think are totally mathematically unrealistic because it would require trillions,” Thielen says.Bitcoin is down 2.35% over the past 30 days. (CoinMarketCap)Thielen says the higher Bitcoin’s price goes, the weaker retail sentiment becomes, partly due to the psychology of investors wanting to own a whole unit of an asset.“I think a lot of people kind of wondered, maybe I should just rather buy a new car than buy one Bitcoin, or should I really work a whole year for just one Bitcoin?” Thielen says. “People don’t want to buy a tenth or a hundredth of a Bitcoin; they want to buy a whole Bitcoin. You don’t want to buy a fraction of a painting.”“Satoshis doesn’t really sound as interesting as Bitcoin,” Thielen says.He warns Bitcoiners not just to expect Bitcoin to rebound as it has in previous cycles, and the $126,000 all-time high may not reappear as quickly as investors expect.“Usually, it takes some time because we are at a higher market cap, and that usually takes a lot of money to push the Bitcoin price higher. So I wouldn’t argue that next year we’re gonna see new highs. If we go back to, let’s say, $100K, that would already be, I think, a big, big achievement,” Thielen says.$1 million Bitcoin has been touted by well-known industry executivesThe prediction that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2030 has been made by prominent industry figures, including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey and ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood. Thielen argues that such bold forecasts are an easy way for executives to generate media attention.(Brian Armstrong)“Round numbers and the higher the number, the more it’s being quoted by the press,” Thielen says, arguing that extravagant predictions tend to do more harm than good.“These optimistic price targets tend to hurt retail investors because they sort of think, OK, if this is only halfway right, then I’m gonna make a lot of money,” Thielen says.“I think nearly everybody was still very bullish and projected higher prices [but] we came into the year already quite conservative, and you know, I think our conservative approach has been the right strategy,” Thielen says.Cointelegraph asked Thielen which year Bitcoiners might reasonably expect Bitcoin could reach $1 million. “I don’t want to say never, but I do think, you know, a million is really a high number,” Thielen says.“It would require, you know, a major credit event, implosion of everything.”Cointelegraph publishes long-form journalism, analysis and narrative reporting produced by Cointelegraph’s in-house editorial team with subject-matter expertise. All articles are edited and reviewed by Cointelegraph editors in line with our editorial standards. Some articles contain affiliate links, from which Cointelegraph may earn a commission. These relationships do not influence which products we review or our editorial conclusions. Content published in here does not constitute financial, legal or investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals where appropriate. Cointelegraph maintains full editorial independence.

Crypto is finally shaking off the “get rich quick” reputation that has defined the industry for more than a decade according to Nansen founder and CEO Alex Svanevik — and it’s not just because nobody’s getting rich right now.“Crypto assets have kind of been like the ‘toy world’ era of blockchains. And now we’re moving into the real-world era, where you see tokenized stocks, you see people trading indices like the S&P 500 and Hyperliquid,” Svanevik tells Magazine on the Trade Secrets show.“I think the interesting spot that blockchains are in right now is that they are basically giving a lot of room for non-crypto assets,” Svanevik says.There are a couple of blockchains that Svanevik is particularly bullish on. While Hyperliquid has captured a lot of attention in the industry recently, Svanevik says Solana is still one of the strongest long-term blockchain ecosystems despite its reputation as the home of meme coins.Industry has a ‘ridiculous’ misconception about Solana“There’s been this view that Solana is just for meme coins, which I think is completely ridiculous,” Svanevik says, arguing that there is a lot more to the blockchain, given the “incredible team” behind it.“Maybe the most effective BD team, if we think broadly, behind that chain; they really are here to win,” Svanevik says.Solana’s price is down 9.60% over the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCapHowever, he is not putting any bets on what that means for the SOL price in the coming twelve months:“I think Solana overall as an ecosystem and as a chain is going to do well. I don’t know what that means for the SOL price. I mean intuitively you’d imagine that it’s gonna go up based on what I’m saying.”Svanevik is one of the crypto industry’s best informed pundits, considering the company he leads, Nansen, is a blockchain analytics firm that tracks millions of labeled wallets and analyzes user activity across networks. Svanevik founded Nansen in 2019 alongside Lars Bakke Krogvig and Evgeny Medvedev.A few years afterward, Svanevik expanded his involvement in the industry, joining the advisory board of penguin-themed NFT collection Pudgy Penguins in August 2022.Svanevik is also bullish on the Ethereum layer-2 network, Robinhood chain, which launched on July 1 this year. “Robinhood seems to kind of rise up as like a big contender to Base. It’s really interesting because Robinhood has such excellent distribution,” Svanevik says. Unfortunately for traders looking to get in early on a trade, he isn’t convinced that Robinhood will launch a token.“They clearly don’t need to, right? A lot of projects launched tokens as a way to bootstrap excitement in a user base,” Svanevik says.He also argues that it would be counterintuitive for Robinhood to launch a product that competes with its own stock, given the company is listed on the Nasdaq. “You should just channel all of that value into the HOOD stock. That’s kind of the first thought,” Svanevik says.“They’ve been able to launch Robinhood chain and get tons of traction without a token.”Bitcoin may be near a bottomWhen it comes to Bitcoin’s price outlook, Svanevik says the market may be approaching a bottom, suggesting that the current level around $60,000 could mark Bitcoin’s cycle low.Bitcoin is up 1.50% over the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCap“My personal view is that I don’t think Bitcoin’s gonna go back below $60,000,” Svanevik says. “I think that’s the past… I think forever,” he says. He bases this on the belief that Bitcoin serves as a hedge against central bank money creation, and he doesn’t see the global monetary expansion cycle coming to an end anytime soon.Bitcoin analysts have been divided over whether the cryptocurrency has already found its bottom after falling to around $60,000 in early February, before bouncing, dipping below the level again and now trading largely sideways.Veteran crypto investor Michael Terpin recently told Cointelegraph that the asset still has further to fall before hitting rock bottom.“We still have more pain to go,” Terpin told Cointelegraph on the Trade Secrets show. Terpin said that Bitcoin will ultimately fall “66%” from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,100. “I think that brings us down into the 40s, and I think that’s about where we’re gonna go,” Terpin said.Cointelegraph publishes long-form journalism, analysis and narrative reporting produced by Cointelegraph’s in-house editorial team with subject-matter expertise. All articles are edited and reviewed by Cointelegraph editors in line with our editorial standards. Some articles contain affiliate links, from which Cointelegraph may earn a commission. These relationships do not influence which products we review or our editorial conclusions. Content published in here does not constitute financial, legal or investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals where appropriate. Cointelegraph maintains full editorial independence.

Bitcoin may have already erased half of its market cap, but veteran crypto investor Michael Terpin says the asset still has further to fall before hitting rock bottom.“We still have more pain to go,” Terpin tells Cointelegraph on the Trade Secrets show. Terpin believes that Bitcoin will ultimately fall “66%” from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,100. “I think that brings us down into the 40s, and I think that’s about where we’re gonna go,” Terpin says. To be precise, a 66% drop from the ATH would see Bitcoin changing hands for $43,500, a price the asset has not seen since early February 2024. The 68-year-old investor, often referred to as the “Godfather of Crypto,” has seen Bitcoin plunge enough times to know what a true bottom feels like. The ‘defining hallmarks’ of a Bitcoin bottomTerpin doesn’t think markets have seen true capitulation yet. “One of the defining hallmarks of the bottom is that it doesn’t pop back,” Terpin says.Michael Terpin spoke to Cointelegraph on the Trade Secrets show. Source: CointelegraphTerpin points out that greed is invariably why most traders fail to time market cycles correctly. He points to Bitcoin’s previous cycle top in November 2021, when the asset reached around $69,000 before entering an extended consolidation period. “You had quite a bit of time to get out over $60,000. But then everybody thought it was going to $100,000,” Terpin says, “remember the laser eyes?” Terpin wasn’t confident back then that Bitcoin would reach $100,000. “I thought there was a possibility it could go to a hundred, but I thought the sweet spot was going to be eighty-five. And it obviously underperformed that because of all the bad macro,” Terpin says.“We’ve had two cycles in a row now with bad macro. And you would have expected good macro from Trump, but the tariffs, and some of the other things that allowed a lot of manipulation,” Terpin says.Bitcoin ultimately reached $100,000 in December 2024, just a month after Donald Trump won the US presidential election.Terpin worked with Ethereum in its early stagesTerpin was an early investor in the crypto industry and is the founder and CEO of blockchain advisory firm Transform Ventures. Through his company, he worked with several projects during their early development stages that went on to become major names in the industry, including Ethereum, Tether, and WAX. He was also an advisor to Mastercoin, the world’s first initial coin offering (ICO) in 2013. It later became known as Omni Layer.Terpin claims he was the first crypto investor to relocate to Puerto Rico, which is known for its crypto-friendly tax policies. Since moving, he has also invested in and helped fund several startups based on the island. Michael Terpin says four-year cycle is not overHe is convinced that Bitcoin is still following its traditional four-year cycle, despite the industry debate in 2025 that institutional adoption and the launch of spot ETFs may have changed the market’s usual boom-and-bust pattern.Bitcoin is up 1.67% over the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCap“I think we’re still following the halvings. This whole argument that, you know, we’re only going up from here because institutions don’t sell is garbage, right? Institutions absolutely sell.”Terpin is also cautious about companies built around Bitcoin exposure, including Strategy and its executive chairman Michael Saylor’s aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy.Buying Strategy stock or Bitcoin?While acknowledging Saylor’s success, Terpin says investors should understand the risks of investing in a corporate structure rather than owning the underlying asset.“I mean historically, you’ve done better if you buy Strategy at the bottom and then sell it at the top than if you buy the Bitcoin,” Terpin says. “Whether he’s [Michael Saylor] able to keep that going, and you know, he avoided being wrecked in 2022 when he was actually underwater with his Bitcoin.” But Terpin would personally “rather bet on Bitcoin than a single company.”And indeed, investors looking for a low maintenance approach should also bet on Bitcoin rather than chasing altcoins, which require far more active management.“You only have to look at your portfolio like a couple times during the four-year cycle,” Terpin says.“When we’re getting near the bottom, see if it’s time to buy. And when we’re getting near the top, see when it’s time to sell. And the rest of the time you can just be on the golf course. Whereas with altcoins, you gotta be, you gotta be on it,” Terpin says.Cointelegraph publishes long-form journalism, analysis and narrative reporting produced by Cointelegraph’s in-house editorial team with subject-matter expertise. All articles are edited and reviewed by Cointelegraph editors in line with our editorial standards. Some articles contain affiliate links, from which Cointelegraph may earn a commission. These relationships do not influence which products we review or our editorial conclusions. Content published in here does not constitute financial, legal or investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals where appropriate. Cointelegraph maintains full editorial independence.

Bitcoin developers need to swallow their pride and outline a clear plan to harden the blockchain against quantum computing attacks, according to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards. He says the day they finally bite the bullet, the price will respond very quickly. “If the Bitcoin core team says in two or three months: ‘this is our roadmap, we’re gonna solve it in the next two years, these are the rough steps we’ll take,’ that would be amazing news,” Edwards tells Cointelegraph on Trade Secrets. “I think that would discount a lot of the risk pretty much overnight,” Edwards says. The question of whether Bitcoin developers should modify the network to make its cryptography quantum-resistant has sparked heated debate within the Bitcoin community, with some arguing that major changes could conflict with Bitcoin’s core ethos. Others claim quantum computers are many years away, and a rushed cure could be worse than the disease.Charles Edwards says a clear roadmap could push price up “very quickly”Edwards often highlights the risk of quantum computing to Bitcoin to his 132,800 X followers. The fear is that, one day, powerful enough quantum computers could break the cryptography that protects the Bitcoin network and potentially compromise Bitcoin wallets.The uncertainty has impacted investor sentiment, and some analysts say it has contributed to the downfall in Bitcoin’s price. The world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock recently pointed to quantum computing as a potential long-term risk in materials for spot Bitcoin ETF investors. However, Edwards says if Bitcoin developers outline a clear roadmap to address the quantum threat, as some other chains have already done, it could send Bitcoin’s price higher “very quickly.” Source: Charles Edwards“Double digits probably,” Edwards predicts. He adds the quantum issue is “somewhat counterintuitively an upside catalyst potential,” because it is currently on the back burner and the Bitcoin Improvement Proposals (BIPs) to date are “not really” a genuine solution.Edwards is no stranger to making high-conviction calls on Bitcoin. Based in Melbourne, Australia, he founded Capriole Investments in 2019, a hedge fund focused on Bitcoin and digital assets. The firm uses a combination of quantitative models, AI, and macroeconomic analysis to guide its investment strategy across crypto markets.Related: StarkWare CEO suggests 4% annual Bitcoin inflation to replace 21M capCharles Edwards says Bitcoin is 40% below its fair value A growing number of observers worry the risk could become more serious if Bitcoin developers fail to make the necessary changes to the network before 2030. Ethereum is due to complete it’s post quantum overhaul by 2029, which will shine a spotlight on Bitcoin’s own preparations.Bitcoin is trading at $65,270 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCapEdwards estimates that Bitcoin is currently around 40% below what he considers its fair value based on energy value, while arguing that quantum risk accounts for roughly a 30% discount. “That means it’s more than priced in,” Edwards said. Bitcoin is trading at $65,270 at the time of publication, roughly 49% below its October all-time highs of $126,100.Edwards clarifies that Bitcoin’s current price reflects the quantum risk based on the information available today, rather than any unknown future developments that could accelerate the threat and tank the price further. His estimate is based on the timelines outlined by leading quantum computing companies and researchers for when “Q Day” could arrive, the point at which quantum computers become powerful enough to reverse engineer private keys from public keys. “That sits in that four to five year range, give or take, a few years,” Edwards says.Edwards says he also factors in the time Bitcoin would need to develop and implement a solution, which BIP-360 author Ethan Heilman estimates could take years.“If we’re gonna get into maths, it’s pretty simple; it is just an aggregation of those expert opinions. So it’s based on that, and based on the fact that there’s currently no solution for Bitcoin.”“That risk again falls significantly if there’s a solution or if there’s a roadmap to a solution. But it also could grow if tomorrow we find out that Google is, you know, twice as far ahead on their roadmap to Q Day or some other major company,” he said.“It’s priced in today, but it’s not to say that it can’t get worse or better. It’s just I think it’s skewed more probabilistically to the upside from here,” Edwards says.Magazine: Bitcoin’s quantum dilemma: Bigger blocks or STARK proofs? Cointelegraph publishes long-form journalism, analysis and narrative reporting produced by Cointelegraph’s in-house editorial team with subject-matter expertise. All articles are edited and reviewed by Cointelegraph editors in line with our editorial standards. Content published in here does not constitute financial, legal or investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals where appropriate. Cointelegraph maintains full editorial independence.