Autor Cointelegraph By Ciaran Lyons

Bitcoin may have already erased half of its market cap, but veteran crypto investor Michael Terpin says the asset still has further to fall before hitting rock bottom.“We still have more pain to go,” Terpin tells Cointelegraph on the Trade Secrets show. Terpin believes that Bitcoin will ultimately fall “66%” from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,100. “I think that brings us down into the 40s, and I think that’s about where we’re gonna go,” Terpin says. To be precise, a 66% drop from the ATH would see Bitcoin changing hands for $43,500, a price the asset has not seen since early February 2024. The 68-year-old investor, often referred to as the “Godfather of Crypto,” has seen Bitcoin plunge enough times to know what a true bottom feels like. The ‘defining hallmarks’ of a Bitcoin bottomTerpin doesn’t think markets have seen true capitulation yet. “One of the defining hallmarks of the bottom is that it doesn’t pop back,” Terpin says.Michael Terpin spoke to Cointelegraph on the Trade Secrets show. Source: CointelegraphTerpin points out that greed is invariably why most traders fail to time market cycles correctly. He points to Bitcoin’s previous cycle top in November 2021, when the asset reached around $69,000 before entering an extended consolidation period. “You had quite a bit of time to get out over $60,000. But then everybody thought it was going to $100,000,” Terpin says, “remember the laser eyes?” Terpin wasn’t confident back then that Bitcoin would reach $100,000. “I thought there was a possibility it could go to a hundred, but I thought the sweet spot was going to be eighty-five. And it obviously underperformed that because of all the bad macro,” Terpin says.“We’ve had two cycles in a row now with bad macro. And you would have expected good macro from Trump, but the tariffs, and some of the other things that allowed a lot of manipulation,” Terpin says.Bitcoin ultimately reached $100,000 in December 2024, just a month after Donald Trump won the US presidential election.Terpin worked with Ethereum in its early stagesTerpin was an early investor in the crypto industry and is the founder and CEO of blockchain advisory firm Transform Ventures. Through his company, he worked with several projects during their early development stages that went on to become major names in the industry, including Ethereum, Tether, and WAX. He was also an advisor to Mastercoin, the world’s first initial coin offering (ICO) in 2013. It later became known as Omni Layer.Terpin claims he was the first crypto investor to relocate to Puerto Rico, which is known for its crypto-friendly tax policies. Since moving, he has also invested in and helped fund several startups based on the island. Michael Terpin says four-year cycle is not overHe is convinced that Bitcoin is still following its traditional four-year cycle, despite the industry debate in 2025 that institutional adoption and the launch of spot ETFs may have changed the market’s usual boom-and-bust pattern.Bitcoin is up 1.67% over the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCap“I think we’re still following the halvings. This whole argument that, you know, we’re only going up from here because institutions don’t sell is garbage, right? Institutions absolutely sell.”Terpin is also cautious about companies built around Bitcoin exposure, including Strategy and its executive chairman Michael Saylor’s aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy.Buying Strategy stock or Bitcoin?While acknowledging Saylor’s success, Terpin says investors should understand the risks of investing in a corporate structure rather than owning the underlying asset.“I mean historically, you’ve done better if you buy Strategy at the bottom and then sell it at the top than if you buy the Bitcoin,” Terpin says. “Whether he’s [Michael Saylor] able to keep that going, and you know, he avoided being wrecked in 2022 when he was actually underwater with his Bitcoin.” But Terpin would personally “rather bet on Bitcoin than a single company.”And indeed, investors looking for a low maintenance approach should also bet on Bitcoin rather than chasing altcoins, which require far more active management.“You only have to look at your portfolio like a couple times during the four-year cycle,” Terpin says.“When we’re getting near the bottom, see if it’s time to buy. And when we’re getting near the top, see when it’s time to sell. And the rest of the time you can just be on the golf course. Whereas with altcoins, you gotta be, you gotta be on it,” Terpin says.Cointelegraph publishes long-form journalism, analysis and narrative reporting produced by Cointelegraph’s in-house editorial team with subject-matter expertise. All articles are edited and reviewed by Cointelegraph editors in line with our editorial standards. Some articles contain affiliate links, from which Cointelegraph may earn a commission. These relationships do not influence which products we review or our editorial conclusions. Content published in here does not constitute financial, legal or investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals where appropriate. Cointelegraph maintains full editorial independence.

Bitcoin developers need to swallow their pride and outline a clear plan to harden the blockchain against quantum computing attacks, according to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards. He says the day they finally bite the bullet, the price will respond very quickly. “If the Bitcoin core team says in two or three months: ‘this is our roadmap, we’re gonna solve it in the next two years, these are the rough steps we’ll take,’ that would be amazing news,” Edwards tells Cointelegraph on Trade Secrets. “I think that would discount a lot of the risk pretty much overnight,” Edwards says. The question of whether Bitcoin developers should modify the network to make its cryptography quantum-resistant has sparked heated debate within the Bitcoin community, with some arguing that major changes could conflict with Bitcoin’s core ethos. Others claim quantum computers are many years away, and a rushed cure could be worse than the disease.Charles Edwards says a clear roadmap could push price up “very quickly”Edwards often highlights the risk of quantum computing to Bitcoin to his 132,800 X followers. The fear is that, one day, powerful enough quantum computers could break the cryptography that protects the Bitcoin network and potentially compromise Bitcoin wallets.The uncertainty has impacted investor sentiment, and some analysts say it has contributed to the downfall in Bitcoin’s price. The world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock recently pointed to quantum computing as a potential long-term risk in materials for spot Bitcoin ETF investors. However, Edwards says if Bitcoin developers outline a clear roadmap to address the quantum threat, as some other chains have already done, it could send Bitcoin’s price higher “very quickly.” Source: Charles Edwards“Double digits probably,” Edwards predicts. He adds the quantum issue is “somewhat counterintuitively an upside catalyst potential,” because it is currently on the back burner and the Bitcoin Improvement Proposals (BIPs) to date are “not really” a genuine solution.Edwards is no stranger to making high-conviction calls on Bitcoin. Based in Melbourne, Australia, he founded Capriole Investments in 2019, a hedge fund focused on Bitcoin and digital assets. The firm uses a combination of quantitative models, AI, and macroeconomic analysis to guide its investment strategy across crypto markets.Related: StarkWare CEO suggests 4% annual Bitcoin inflation to replace 21M capCharles Edwards says Bitcoin is 40% below its fair value A growing number of observers worry the risk could become more serious if Bitcoin developers fail to make the necessary changes to the network before 2030. Ethereum is due to complete it’s post quantum overhaul by 2029, which will shine a spotlight on Bitcoin’s own preparations.Bitcoin is trading at $65,270 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCapEdwards estimates that Bitcoin is currently around 40% below what he considers its fair value based on energy value, while arguing that quantum risk accounts for roughly a 30% discount. “That means it’s more than priced in,” Edwards said. Bitcoin is trading at $65,270 at the time of publication, roughly 49% below its October all-time highs of $126,100.Edwards clarifies that Bitcoin’s current price reflects the quantum risk based on the information available today, rather than any unknown future developments that could accelerate the threat and tank the price further. His estimate is based on the timelines outlined by leading quantum computing companies and researchers for when “Q Day” could arrive, the point at which quantum computers become powerful enough to reverse engineer private keys from public keys. “That sits in that four to five year range, give or take, a few years,” Edwards says.Edwards says he also factors in the time Bitcoin would need to develop and implement a solution, which BIP-360 author Ethan Heilman estimates could take years.“If we’re gonna get into maths, it’s pretty simple; it is just an aggregation of those expert opinions. So it’s based on that, and based on the fact that there’s currently no solution for Bitcoin.”“That risk again falls significantly if there’s a solution or if there’s a roadmap to a solution. But it also could grow if tomorrow we find out that Google is, you know, twice as far ahead on their roadmap to Q Day or some other major company,” he said.“It’s priced in today, but it’s not to say that it can’t get worse or better. It’s just I think it’s skewed more probabilistically to the upside from here,” Edwards says.Magazine: Bitcoin’s quantum dilemma: Bigger blocks or STARK proofs? Cointelegraph publishes long-form journalism, analysis and narrative reporting produced by Cointelegraph’s in-house editorial team with subject-matter expertise. All articles are edited and reviewed by Cointelegraph editors in line with our editorial standards. Content published in here does not constitute financial, legal or investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals where appropriate. Cointelegraph maintains full editorial independence.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt says he has pinpointed the exact day in 2026 when he expects Bitcoin to hit the bottom of this market cycle.“I’ll go out on a limb and say we bottom on October 4th. So we’ll see,” Brandt tells Cointelegraph during an interview for Trade Secrets. Of course, picking the exact day of a market bottom is a tough ask, but the 51-year trading veteran has held firm on his October prediction for Bitcoin’s cycle low for quite some time.He says Bitcoin could fall below $50,000 and potentially into the high-$40,000 range before establishing what he expects will be the cycle low.“Whether it’s at these kinds of current levels, or we crash through and really blow people out and move into the 50s, possibly the high 40s… You know, you have to remember that every major bear market in Bitcoin’s history since its inception has been an 80% plus correction. If you take Bitcoin’s high in the 120s, that would indicate that,” Brandt says.Bitcoin is trading at $63,661 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCapMany traders believe Bitcoin’s current level around $60,000 could be the cycle bottom, but Brandt isn’t convinced. He says there is still too much optimism that prices will bounce back.“Right now it’s neutral [sentiment]. Markets don’t bottom on neutral sentiment. Markets bottom on panic and volume.” “The same people that are saying Bitcoin’s bottom at some point in time will be giving up on Bitcoin, throwing in the towel, and saying we’re done with Bitcoin, we’re going on to other assets, the Bitcoin phenomenon is done,” Brandt says.Brandt says Bitcoin is a better bet than AI stocksWhile some in crypto have blamed the AI boom for pulling money away from Bitcoin and the broader market, Brandt isn’t convinced the AI trade can keep climbing forever. “I do not believe that somebody who goes all in on AI stocks right now will be very happy with that investment two, three years from now,” Brandt says, explaining that if he had $10,000 right now he would split it 50% between Bitcoin and precious metals.“I think precious metals are closer to a bottom price-wise; I think Bitcoin may be closer to a bottom time-wise,” he says.Brandt says Bitcoin won’t reach its cycle peak until 2029, forecasting a price between $250,000 and $300,000. If he’s right, Bitcoin would have just a year to climb from that range to the far more ambitious $1 million target projected by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood for 2030.Cointelegraph publishes long-form journalism, analysis and narrative reporting produced by Cointelegraph’s in-house editorial team with subject-matter expertise. All articles are edited and reviewed by Cointelegraph editors in line with our editorial standards. Content published in here does not constitute financial, legal or investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals where appropriate. Cointelegraph maintains full editorial independence.