Autor Cointelegraph by Biraajmaan Tamuly

Bitcoin’s (BTC) lowest-ever readings on the daily and two-week relative strength index (RSI) are coinciding with steady accumulation across several investor cohorts, strengthening what one analyst called the “best thesis” for buying BTC. Onchain data shows wallets holding 1,000–10,000 BTC added more than 53,000 BTC over the past 60 days, while smaller retail investors also increased their holdings. BTC accumulation grows across key cohortsMN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe highlighted Bitcoin’s historically weak momentum readings as a potential long-term opportunity.”The lowest Bitcoin read on the 2-Week RSI, and Daily RSI EVER. That’s the best thesis for accumulating and buying your Bitcoin,” van de Poppe said, adding that the panic-driven selling could continue while presenting rare buying opportunities.Onchain data supports part of that view. Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score shows the strongest buying activity among smaller holders and select mid-sized investors. BTC wallets holding less than 0.1 BTC recorded a score of 0.78, the highest among the tracked cohorts. The 10–100 BTC group followed with a score of 0.71, signaling consistent accumulation over recent weeks.Bitcoin accumulation trend score. Source: CryptoQuantSome larger holders have also been active buyers. Over the past 60 days, wallets holding 1,000–10,000 BTC added 53,042 BTC, the largest increase among all cohorts. Addresses holding 100–1,000 BTC accumulated another 12,233 BTC, while the 10–100 BTC group added 1,283 BTC.However, a different picture emerged among the largest entities. BTC wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC reduced balances by 39,840 BTC during the same period. Smaller groups holding between 1 and 10 BTC also trimmed exposure. The positioning split points to sustained demand from whales below the largest cohort and from retail investors accumulating into weakness.Bitcoin accumulation vs distribution (60-day change). Source: CryptoQuantRelated: Bitcoin price eyes $90K as FTX-era BTC bullish divergence flashes againAnalysts map potential bottom zones below $60,000Market analyst Titan of Crypto highlighted a quarterly fair value gap (FVG) between $56,800 and $44,600. An FVG is a price imbalance created when Bitcoin moves sharply in one direction over a short period, leaving a zone with relatively little trading activity. BTC quarterly price and FVG analysis by Titan of Crypto. Source: XThe quarterly chart shows that Bitcoin revisited similar imbalance zones created in 2011, 2013, 2017, and 2020 before establishing a bottom. The latest gap, formed in 2024, remains unfilled, making the $56,800–$44,600 range an important bracket if the current correction extends further. Meanwhile, Glassnode co-founder Rafael pointed to Bitcoin’s cumulative value days destroyed-to-price ratio (CVDD), a long-term valuation metric that compares the market price to a historical cost basis floor derived from coin-holding behavior. The ratio currently sits near 0.73 and has historically approached 1.0 near major cycle bottoms.With the CVDD floor near $46,000, Rafael said a similar pattern would place a potential bottom in the $52,000–$59,000 range. Bitcoin CVDD ratio. Source: Rafael/XRelated: Spot Bitcoin ETFs bleed $1.7B as outflow streak hits four weeks

New reporting from Bitwise suggests that Bitcoin’s (BTC) undervaluation could expand if investors’ concerns over sovereign debt deepen. The asset management firm said that mounting pressure in global bond markets and rising government debt levels could strengthen Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against macroeconomic risks, with one valuation model suggesting a theoretical fair value of $224,000. Debt market turmoil may support Bitcoin in the long-term Bitwise pointed to mounting pressure across the global bond markets. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) estimates governments and companies will need to borrow roughly $29 trillion in 2026, up 17% from 2024 and nearly double the amount raised a decade ago. Around 78% of OECD government borrowing is expected to be used solely to refinance existing debt.10-year sovereign swap spreads across nations. Source: BitwiseBitwise noted that Japan remains a key focus. The country’s 10-year government bond yield recently climbed to 2.78%, while its 30-year bond yield reached a record high. At the same time, Japan’s public debt stands near 230% of GDP, among the highest levels in the current macroeconomic environment.The report noted that Japanese investors hold approximately $1.2 trillion in US Treasurys, but higher domestic yields are making overseas bonds less attractive. Currently, the 10-year Japanese bond yield is 2.66% on Tuesday, compared to 2.19% for Yen-hedged 10-year US Treasurys, potentially encouraging capital to return to domestic markets.Bond market stress is not limited to Japan. US 30-year Treasury yields recently reached 5.11% on May 11, its highest level since 2007, while sovereign risk premiums, measured through 10-year swap spreads, have risen to their highest levels since the European debt crisis of 2011-2012.While these trends could weigh on risk assets in the short term, Bitwise believes a deeper bond-market disruption could eventually become a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin if central banks are forced to inject liquidity to stabilize financial markets.Bitcoin probability of default vs model value. Source: BitwiseThe firm cited a model developed by investor Greg Foss that values Bitcoin at roughly $224,000 if it gains broader adoption as a hedge against sovereign default risk. Bitwise stressed that the figure is a theoretical estimate rather than a price target.Despite the long-term bullish case, the report noted that Bitcoin may remain range-bound in the near term as higher real yields and tighter financial conditions continue to pressure demand.Related: Bitcoin back in ‘distribution phase’ as extreme fear grips crypto marketDeclining real yields may improve Bitcoin’s macro backdropBitwise noted that Bitcoin’s near-term outlook may depend heavily on real interest rates, which measure the Federal Reserve’s policy rate after adjusting for inflation. In the report, real rates are calculated as the Fed Funds rate minus US CPI inflation. Historically, Bitcoin has tended to perform well when real rates fall, as cash and bonds become less attractive in inflation-adjusted terms. Bitcoin vs year-on-year change in US real rates. Source: BitwiseThe firm noted that Bitcoin’s 2021 bull market coincided with declining real rates, while the 2022 bear market unfolded alongside rising real rates and aggressive monetary tightening. Although real rates remain restrictive, Bitwise said that a scenario in which inflation rises while the Fed keeps rates unchanged could push real rates lower, potentially creating a more supportive backdrop for Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Bitcoin researcher Sminston outlined that BTC could trade between $90,000 and $255,000 by the end of 2026, based on the Bitcoin Decay Channel, a logarithmic price model that has historically identified major cycle tops and bottoms. The analyst noted Bitcoin’s recent rebound emerged near the model’s long-term support zone, keeping the broader bullish outlook intact. Related: Bitcoin volatility is down 56% but analysts still expect up to 20% BTC price move

Bitcoin’s realized volatility has fallen to 17.2%, one of its lowest levels in recent months. Multiple Bitcoin analysts have said that long periods of price compression, alongside declining volatility, have historically preceded double-digit rallies. Bitcoin realized volatility is down 56% in Q2Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. said that BTC’s one-week realized volatility, smoothed over a 30-day period, has fallen to 17.2% from 39% this quarter, a 56% decline.Bitcoin realized volatility (one-week). Source: CryptoQuant The realized volatility, which measures how much the price has actually moved over a given period, sits well below its long-term median of 40%. Adler explained that such volatility compression may lead to a major price move. However, the metric does not indicate direction. Instead, it measures how much momentum is building while the price movement slows.The long-term volatility gauges tell a similar story. Three-month realized volatility has fallen to 80% from 109% since early April, while six-month realized volatility declined to 127% from 148%. The drop across multi-time-frame volatility measures indicates that price movement has become compressed, a condition that may precede larger market moves. Bitcoin three- and six-month realized volatility. Source: CryptoQuantThe network valuation data adds another layer. The Bitcoin growth rate metric, which compares market capitalization growth to realized capitalization, has remained negative for more than six months. The delta, or 365-day moving average, recently slipped to -0.0013, indicating that BTC’s market value is growing more slowly than its realized value.Adler said that the data points to a cooling market. Bitcoin’s price is not rising as quickly as the capital flowing into the network, suggesting investors are becoming more cautious amid reduced market volatility. Bitcoin growth rate based on market cap and realized cap. Source: CryptoQuantRelated: Bitcoin price targets $78K as BTC holders defend ‘strongest near-term support’Bitcoin enters a “tug-of-war” phase, says analystCryptoQuant analyst Maartunn said Bitcoin has spent 114 days trading within a broad range of $60,000 and $80,000, while the Bitcoin volatility index has dropped toward multi-month lows near 0.90.According to Maartunn, similar periods of compression have historically preceded 10% to 20% moves once the price range breaks.BTC price and volatility index analysis by Maartunn. Source: XMN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe remained bullish on BTC, stating the current area as a key support zone. Van de Poppe said, “If history repeats itself, that means that we’re going to see two great weeks of upwards momentum for Bitcoin and the end of this correction. It’s a crucial support zone for Bitcoin, which needs to hold in order to prevent a test at $61,000 to happen.”Meanwhile, CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha pointed to a growing split in market behavior. Binance’s 30-day Bitcoin inflows rose by roughly $5.6 billion since April across both retail and whale cohorts. Retail inflows increased by $3.6 billion, surpassing the $2 billion rise from whale wallets.At the same time, wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC accumulated 55,450 BTC on May 30, marking their strongest accumulation activity since February. Taha added, “For Bitcoin, this points to a tug-of-war phase. Exchange inflows are increasing, which may create near-term selling pressure, but large wallet accumulation is also returning, which could provide underlying support if demand remains strong.”Related: Trump says Iran will ‘work out well’: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) traders have placed new buy orders near $70,000 as the price approaches a key liquidity zone. Order-book data shows more than $500 million in bid liquidity between $72,000 and $70,000, creating a demand zone that could shape BTC’s next move.BTC buy bids form key support zoneData from CoinGlass shows dip buyers have placed 6,235 BTC in bid liquidity between $72,000 and $70,000. At current prices, the buy orders are worth roughly $443 million.The largest cluster sits directly above $70,000, where buyers are positioned to absorb the current selling pressure. Bid liquidity refers to limit buy orders waiting below the market price. When price trades into those orders, it can slow a decline and trigger a sharp rebound if demand absorbs available BTC supply.BTC/USD, one-day chart, buy liquidity analysis. Source: Velo chartBelow $70,000, the next notable pocket of demand sits at $68,505, where traders have placed another 1,012 BTC worth approximately $69 million. Outside that level, the order book thins considerably, with few visible bids below $68,500.Meanwhile, liquidation heatmap data shows about $2 billion in cumulative long positions at risk near $70,000, compared to more than $5 billion in short positions around $78,000. Once BTC taps the bid cluster near $70,000, the larger liquidity pool may trigger a sharp rebound toward overhead liquidation zones. BTC liquidation map. Source: CoinGlassRelated: Bitcoin falls out of the global top 10 assets as market cap dips below $1.5TRSI hits three-month low as daily BTC trend turns bearishBitcoin’s daily trend turned bearish after losing support at $74,800, confirming a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The price is trading inside a descending channel and is currently testing support near the lower boundary around $72,000–$73,000.The relative strength index (RSI) has fallen to roughly 33, its lowest level since Feb. 24. Momentum has stayed below the neutral 50 level throughout the recent decline, suggesting sellers still control the short-term price action.BTC/USD, one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewCrypto trader Ardi outlined a similar view. The analyst said the $74,500–$75,500 region now acts as resistance across multiple time frames. A rejection from that area could keep focus on the $71,500 region, while a move through channel resistance near $76,000 may challenge the ongoing downtrend.Options markets show investors have also been preparing for a move toward $70,000. According to Glassnode, traders spent nearly $10 million on put options with a $70,000 strike during the recent dip. Put options rise in value when prices fall, making them a common hedge against downside risk. Recent flows show some easing in that protection demand as traders lock in profits, though the concentration of hedging activity highlights how closely the market is watching the $70,000 level.BTC options market analysis at $70,000. Source: Glassnode/XRelated: Bitcoin’s major holders halt buys as demand slows: CryptoQuant

Solana (SOL) futures dropped sharply in May as traders reduced leveraged exposure across all exchanges. SOL open interest (OI) dropped to $1.90 billion on Thursday from $2.75 billion on May 11, a 30% decline, while funding rates remained close to neutral. The combination points to weakening investor sentiment as SOL eyes a retest of its yearly low at $68. SOL spot demand offsets futures market weaknessThe aggregated funding rate for Solana futures held near -0.005, showing balanced positioning between longs and shorts. SOL traders have not built aggressive directional bets despite the recent price slide to $80.SOL price, aggregated open interest, and funding rate. Source: velo chartAt the same time, the aggregated futures volume cumulative volume delta (CVD) for stablecoin-margined orders fell to a yearly low of -$13 billion. The CVD tracks whether buyers or sellers are more active over time. The decline signals stronger sell-side pressure in futures markets through May.BTC price, aggregated spot and futures CVD. Source: Coinalyze However, spot activity paints a steadier picture. Spot CVD has improved to $350 million since March, showing that buyers have continued to absorb supply on spot exchanges even as derivatives positioning has weakened. The positive flows into spot SOL exchange-traded funds (ETFs) added to that trend. The monthly net inflows reached $113 million in May, marking the strongest monthly total for SOL ETFs in 2026.The split between futures selling and steady spot accumulation often points to a lower level of speculative appetite rather than panic selling. This indicates that leveraged traders reduced risk exposure, while spot buyers continued to add positions gradually.Spot SOL ETF netflows. Source: SoSoValueRelated: Three key XRP metrics suggest ‘explosive price expansion’ is nextSOL retests the $80 price floor of a three-month rangeFrom a technical standpoint, SOL continues to trade inside a broad range between $80 and $95. The range formed after Solana fell 42% during Q1. The price returned to the lower boundary on Wednesday after another rejection near the resistance level.SOL/USD, one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewA move below $80 places focus on the yearly low near $68. The liquidation heat maps show more than $800 million in cumulative long leverage sitting near that zone, making it an important liquidity pocket if downside pressure increases.Crypto trader Cold Blooded Shiller described SOL as one of the weaker large-cap charts in the market. In a post on X, the trader said SOL has been in a downtrend since October and lacks strong support below the current price level of $80.Crypto commentator Zoe also placed bids near $67, closely aligning with the yearly low and the largest cluster of leveraged liquidations identified on the open leveraged positions heatmap. SOL liquidation map. Source: CoinGlassRelated: HYPE chases new highs as ETF inflows, institutional adoption accelerate