Autor Cointelegraph by Antonio Oliveira

When Bitcoin (BTC) finally escaped from its channel pattern and secured a multiple-day close above the $77,000 resistance, traders rejoiced and declared the downtrend over. Fast-forward to the present and BTC has fallen below multiple support levels and appears at risk of retesting $70,000, a 16% decline from its range highs. While billion-dollar spot BTC ETF outflows, resumption of combat between the US and Iran, concerns over rising inflation and growing fear that the CLARITY Act will not pass in the Senate are all factors in Bitcoin’s crumbling strength, the real question is whether spot and futures demand will kick in and stem the price decline.Since falling below $75,000 in February 2026, the level has served as an important support/resistance level. With $60,000 agreed upon by analysts as the cycle bottom for BTC, longer-term leverage was built around the $70,000 to $75,000 zone, and much of that is being cleared out this week. Liquidation heatmap data from Hyblock highlighted this dynamic, and in a post on X, the analysts said,“On the higher lookback (1 month of liquidity), we continue stairwelling down, taking another large long liq cluster.” BTC/USDT one-month liquidation heatmap data. Source: HyblockWhile revisiting the lower boundaries of Bitcoin’s 2026 range is far from ideal for bulls, a silver lining has emerged. As BTC fell below $73,000 on Thursday, the BTC/USDT bid-ask ratio metric at Hyblock printed candles above zero, a first since April 12. Set to 10% order-book depth, the bid-ask ratio at 0.03 shows bids becoming dominant in order books as BTC price dropped below $73,000, an early indication that traders are buying in spot markets. At the same time, the true retail longs-and-shorts accounts metric, which shows the percentage of retail futures accounts holding long positions, has risen above 64%. BTC one-hour chart showing bid-ask ratio and retail longs/shorts accounts. Source: HyblockAccording to Hyblock analysts, “If you long every single 15m candle that had true retail accounts long percentage above 64% (the current value), then 927 out of 1,056 (88%) of those candles results in positive 7d forward returns.” Bitcoin forward returns data based on true retail accounts. Source: HyblockThe data suggest that despite the negative sentiment surrounding negative news flow, the spot ETF dynamics and fragile geopolitics, the retail investor cohorts within the spot markets view the current pricing as discounted. Related: Bitcoin funding spike shows longs defending $70K: Will ETF outflows reverse bulls’ efforts?A similar view is displayed by the spot and futures aggregate cumulative volume data at Binance where “dip buyers” are seen generating $185.58 million and $62.8 million in volume over the last 10 hours. BTC/USDT one-hour chart spot and futures cumulative volume delta. Source: TRDR.io

Bitcoin’s (BTC) rising funding rate and aggregated open interest suggest bullish investors are opening longs in an attempt to defend the range lows and an important support at $70,000, but another day of spot ETF outflows has investors concerned that the institutional stance on BTC is shifting.As shown in the chart below, Bitcoin open interest remains relatively stable despite the day-over-day selling, further re-enforcing the view that long positions are either topping up to stay open or newly created. The cross-exchange funding rates (the last indicator at the bottom of the chart) are also mostly positive to neutral, indicating a long-leaning bias among investors. BTC/USDT one-hour chart. Source: Velo.xyz Prior to the drop to $73,000, liquidations remained within norms of BTC’s intra-day range percentage-wise, suggesting that this week’s price action is a continuation of the current consolidation rather than early confirmation of a higher-timeframe trend change. One important point to consider is “who” is propping BTC up. Hyblock’s True Retail Longs & Shorts Accounts indicator shows retail investors increasingly viewing corrections as dip-buying opportunities. Hyblock analysts said that,“Long exposure now sits near 62%, a level where retail traders have historically been vulnerable to getting trapped. Over the last three months, backtested 15-minute data shows that when retail long positioning was above 62%, BTC posted positive returns 82% of the time seven days later, with a median forward return of 3.6% across 1,459 occurrences.” True retail longs and shorts accounts’ 7-day future price change %. Source: Hyblock Related: Bitcoin miner inflows to Binance soar as BTC struggles to hold uptrend: Is $70K next?ETF outflows, negative Coinbase premium counters spot and perp traders’ effortsAccording to Bitfinex analysts, Bitcoin investors are “cautious heading into Thursday’s (May 29) Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report for April.” The analysts said, “Since 15 May, futures open interest (OI) has fallen sharply following a price correction that has seen BTC fall over 10 percent from recent highs above $82,000. Bitcoin’s aggregated global OI has now dropped back below $55 billion, the lowest reading since 11 April, and is down 14 percent from when BTC was trading above $80,000.” On Wednesday, outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs topped $200 million, while cumulative outflows over the past 7 days exceeded $1.5 billion. In addition to the reversal in ETF flows, Bitfinex pointed to the negative Coinbase premium as a “significant warning sign.” Spot Bitcoin ETF weekly flows. Source: SoSoValue.com“In the post-ETF landscape, this reflects a structural reality: direct US spot demand on Coinbase has been largely displaced by indirect institutional demand via ETFs, structured products, and over-the-counter desks.”The analysts noted that even while Bitcoin price is “in an uptrend on the lower timeframes since the breakout” from $72,000, “the continuation set-up is absent.” “A strong uptrend is typically driven via the spot tape, which would mean persistent negative funding rates and a persistent positive Coinbase premium. The opposite is the case at present.” 

Bitcoin’s (BTC) consolidation continued into a fourth week, with the price finding support at $74,000 and resistance in the $78,000 to $80,000 range. According to Hyblock analysts, the intra-day rally to $78,164 hit a pocket where “longs that had previously opened up (that are in a position) were underwater and likely exited here at breakeven.” BTC/USDT net positions heatmap. Source: HyblockHyblock added: “And shorts who were in profit, likely exited here at “breakeven” to prevent any loss. Hence “psychological” level.” Regarding the liquidations that occurred during the intra-day price move and how liquidity currently functions as a magnet for BTC price, Hyblock identified two clusters. “The brightest clusters (where a lot of potential liquidity lies) and where liquidity is building up the fastest and most recently (i.e., $75,675 to $75,700.)” BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap. Source: HyblockRelated: Bitcoin price lags bullish US tech stocks: Is there a silver lining?a Despite Bitcoin’s inability to hold above $78,000, Blockstream CEO Adam Back posted about a Bitcoin whale using a time-weighted average price (TWAP) method to “hoover” up 450 “cheap Bitcoins” per day for the last 8.5 eight and a half days. Bitfinex Bitcoin whale TWAP data. Source: Adam Back / X As shown in the chart below, the price action of the day represents the classic futures-led selloff where selling via derivatives is putting pressure on BTC price, but buyers in the spot market are absorbing a portion of the selling. This effectively softens the blows delivered by sellers and reinforces Bitcoin’s $74,000 support. Currently, orderbook depth data (2.5% to 5% depth) shows sellers present from $77,700, and the asks thicken from $78,000 to $80,000, suggesting Bitcoin will continue to encounter resistance in this price range. BTC/USDT spot and perps cumulative volume delta. Source: TRDR.io

Bitcoin (BTC) traders pushed the price to $77,400, but data suggests profit-taking may thwart the bull’s goal of turning the $77,000 to $80,000 zone into support. Orderbook data from TRDR shows over $130 million in asks extending from $76,700 to $79,300. BTC/USDT Binance perps orderbook. Source. TRDR.ioGiven Bitcoin’s negative futures funding rate and the small negative long-short delta (-$1.47 million at the time of writing), bulls have a slight edge in the short-term. The situation could shift further in their favor if the BTC price pushes into short liquidity starting at $76,800, where there is a -$66.5 million to -$189 million negative delta, meaning short positions face a significantly higher risk of forced closure.BTC/USDT long-short-delta. 7-day lookback. Source: HyblockFrom a technical analysis perspective, the current price action saw Bitcoin lock in $75,000 as support through a confirmed support-resistance flip, and it also traded back above the 20-day moving average ($76,067) after falling below it on Wednesday and Thursday. Related: Repeat Bitcoin profit taking near $77K suggests rally is losing steamIn the short-term, the most desirable outcome for bulls would be a repeat of this week’s price action, where, in this case, BTC rallies through the channel trendline resistance at $79,000, followed by another SR-flip to confirm $80,000 as support. BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingViewBeyond the expected profit-taking kicking in at $77,000, a volume spike in either spot or perpetual futures markets is the missing ingredient to absorb the selling and extend BTC’s breakouts. As shown in the TRDR chart below, the bulk of BTC’s intraday moves stem from liquidations and the absence of sustained spot volume and long leverage, resulting in rallies that lack duration.  BTC/USDT perps (Binance), 4-hour chart. Source: TRDR.io This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.

Bitcoin (BTC) extended its two-day decline on Wednesday after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes confirmed the Fed’s decision to hold “the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-½ to 3-¾ percent.” While the Fed maintains its goal of achieving “maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run,” the FOMC minutes cited the “developments in the Middle East” as factors fueling an environment of “uncertainty” and the Fed stressed its desire to maintain optionality as it evaluates the “risks to both sides of its dual mandate.” FOMC minutes with new statements in red. Source: CNBCThe Fed’s hold on rates aligned with market expectations, but Bitcoin remained fragile throughout Chairman Powell’s presser. Hyblock CEO Shubh Varma described the price action as “the usual sell the news reaction after the FOMC,” but also noted that BTC “quickly recovered to pre-announcement levels within hours, showing strong underlying conviction.” Adding data to back his market view, Varma said, “The global bid ask ratio spiked to 0.3 (one of the highest readings), while open interest fell on the price drop. This is classic post-FOMC position squaring and stop-hunt behavior rather than conviction selling.”BTC/USDT global bid ask ratio. Source: HyblockWill support turn back into resistance?After the FOMC minutes were published, BTC dropped to an intra-day low of $74,937, slightly below the 20-day simple moving average ($75,664) that some traders identified as critical to confirming BTC’s support-resistance flip. As reported on Monday by Cointelegraph, following the break above the channel resistance on the daily chart, BTC required consecutive daily candle closes above the trendline, followed by a lower support restest in the $76,500 to $75,500 range. BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingViewWhile all the above have happened, failure to recapture the 20-MA and close above the trendline resistance could be interpreted as a loss of momentum within the bull trend, opening the path for Bitcoin to test the downside boundary of the near-4-month-old channel. Related: Bitcoin falls as traders cut risk ahead of FOMC: Will Tradfi, spot ETF volumes bolster $70K support?Prior to the Chairman Powell’s presser, Glassnode analysts noticed that Bitcoin traders were adding bearish leverage, citing rising open interest after Tuesday’s rally to $79,000, funding remaining neutral and a divergence between the spot and futures market cumulative volume delta (CVD). Bitcoin traders turn bearish ahead of FOMC minutes. Source: Glassnode / XAdditional analysis from Glassnode’s The Week Onchain report depicted Bitcoin’s price action as “trapped below market mean,” where $65,000 to $70,000 act as support, but weak demand prevents the formation of sustainable rallies. According to the report, Bitcoin failed to overcome its True Market Mean at $79,000 and a surge in short-term holders’ profit taking, along with margin futures flipping net short, has sapped away Bitcoin’s shorter-term bullish momentum. BTC entity-adjusted short-term holder realized profit. Source: GlassnodeWhile these factors increase Bitcoin’s sensitivity to a sharper downside move, the analysts said institutional flows into the spot BTC ETFs and rising CME open interest have helped to build a “dense accumulation cluster between $65K and $70K.” CME open interest, US spot ETF AUM position change. Source: GlassnodeThis article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.