Autor Cointelegraph By Andrew Singer

Does the IMF have a vendetta against cryptocurrencies?

Is the International Monetary Fund (IMF) really hostile to crypto? Many in the cryptocurrency/blockchain space think so. In January, the fund asked El Salvador to drop Bitcoin (BTC) as legal tender. In May, it reportedly pressured Argentina to curtail crypto trading as the price for an IMF loan extension, and it also recently warned the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) that raising a digital currency to the status of legal tender could “raise risks to macroeconomic and financial stability as well as financial integrity.”“I do believe that the IMF is an implacable foe of crypto,” David Tawil, president and co-founder at ProChain Capital, told Cointelegraph. Given that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are ‘“issued” by non-state entities and are borderless, “crypto has the potential to be ubiquitous, which can significantly curtail the need for the IMF,” a financial agency of the United Nations.“Bitcoin stands against everything the IMF stands for,” Alex Gladstein, chief strategy officer of the Human Rights Foundation, told Politico in June. “It’s an outside money that’s beyond the control of these alphabet soup organizations,” while Kraken’s Dan Held simply tweeted, “The IMF is evil,” in response to the fund’s reported actions in Argentina.Still, others believe that this multilateral lending institution that serves some 190 countries — and has long been a lightning rod for criticism in the developing world — may have a more nuanced view of cryptocurrencies. A broad-minded view of crypto-assets?In a September report, “Regulating Crypto,” the IMF seemed to have no problem with the existence or even proliferation of non-governmental digital currencies. Indeed, it called for a “global regulatory framework” for cryptocurrencies in order to bring order to the markets “and provide a safe space for useful innovation to continue.” “The IMF has taken a very broad-minded view of crypto-assets,” John Kiff, managing director of the CBDC Think Tank and, until 2021, a senior financial sector expert at the IMF, told Cointelegraph, especially if one looks beyond some of the recent cases cited above. He added:“The Marshall Islands and El Salvador opinions pertained to country governments adopting crypto as legal tender when their unit of account currencies were already well established. And, those adverse opinions were mostly focused on the macroeconomic impact of hitching their fiscal wagons to cryptocurrencies.” Institutionally speaking, “it’s true that the IMF is skeptical of crypto, and it came down hard on El Salvador, Josh Lipsky, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center, told Cointelegraph. But, that’s because the fund was worried about the financial vulnerability of that nation’s economy. The IMF “will have to bail them out” if and when El Salvador reneges on its international debt payments.Recent: Bitcoin miners rethink business strategies to survive long-termMeanwhile, “Argentina has done something like 20-plus lending programs over the years, so it can’t really go back to the IMF and renegotiate [its loans] while it is also conducting crypto experiments,” added Lipsky, who previously served as an adviser to the IMF and speechwriter to Christine Lagarde. The mayor of Buenos Aires, a cryptocurrency proponent, was reported to be developing plans that would allow the city’s residents to pay their municipal taxes in cryptocurrencies. “That raised some eyebrows” at the fund, commented Lipsky. Even Tawil agreed that the IMF was justified in forcing “certain policy choices, like austerity or taxation or removal of government subsidies that cannot be supported economically” under certain circumstances. If a country “has awful policies” that will make it persistently dependent on the fund’s support, then “the IMF will use its lending ability to influence policy choices.”Money laundering risks In connection with the Marshall Islands’ bid to implement a sovereign digital currency, or SOV, as a second legal tender, the IMF’s Yong Sarah Zhou cited not only financial stability perils but also “anti-money laundering and combatting the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) risks.” Simon Lelieveldt, a Netherlands-based regulatory consultant for payments and blockchain, wasn’t really sure this was the fund’s main objection, however. Yes, crypto can be “used as an investment asset and also a tool for money laundering — as can cash in the bank,” but it is more likely crypto’s “ungoverned nature” that alarms the IMF and other intergovernmental organizations, including the Financial Action Task Force.Governments in the developing world sometimes feel “oppressed by IMF rulings and neoliberal dogmas” and are tempted to “escape the harness of the IMF” through the use of alternate legal tenders, actions that inevitably “lead to reactions from institutions that are afraid of losing their power,” he told Cointelegraph. A misbegotten case?El Salvador was the world’s first country to adopt Bitcoin, or any cryptocurrency, as legal tender in September 2021. “El Salvador was a really bad use case,” Lipsky told Cointelegraph. “What Terra Luna did for crypto in the United States, El Salvador did for crypto globally.” What went wrong? “There were so many failures, but if I were to pick one, it would be how rushed it felt.” There was a “paper-thin, two-page explanation how it [Bitcoin] would work,” and that was it. Rather than take an experimental approach, beginning with small pilots and independent risk assessments, the Bitcoin Law was hurried through El Salvador’s legislature and immediately imposed — “reckless and rushed,” according to one critic.The IMF’s wariness of crypto as legal tender only deepened in the wake of the El Salvador inept BTC launch, in Lipsky’s view.Still, institutions like the IMF and the World Bank arguably have an “outsized influence” on small countries looking to take more control over their currencies, and they “can apply pressure, from making aid conditional to simply blocking aid, unless countries comply with their requirements,” Henri Arslanian wrote in his recently published book, The Book of Crypto. Recent: What does the global energy crisis mean for crypto markets?When El Salvador recognized Bitcoin as legal tender, for instance, the World Bank, another lending institution in the United Nations system, not only criticized the move but “also refused to provide technical assistance, citing environmental and transparency concerns,” wrote Arslanian.Natural enemies?Given the mandate of nongovernment organizations like IMF and the World Bank — which is, broadly speaking, to support global financial stability and spur economic growth in the developing world — there could simply be a natural tension vis-a-vis decentralized currencies — which are often volatile and hard-to-control financial instruments with no return address or even identifiable individuals in charge. As Tawil noted, the IMF is often called upon to deal with economies “plagued by corrupt and inept leadership and illusory currencies” and, therefore, it really has “no incentive to add another ‘issuer-less’ currency.” Nevertheless, he added:“The IMF cannot ignore reality, which is that our future will be filled with cryptocurrencies.”

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Tech’s good intentions and why Satoshi’s new ‘social order’ foundered

All revolutions have their dogmas, and the cryptocurrency/blockchain insurgency is no different. It’s an article of faith among crypto adherents that decentralization will solve many of society’s ills, including the problem of governance. Vili Lehdonvirta — an Oxford University social scientist, book author, and former software developer — disagrees.“The underlying technology will change and it’s already changing,” he told Cointelegraph last week. “It’s becoming less blockchain-like, less like the original idea of a trustless system,” especially after the Ethereum Merge, where corporate-like ‘staking’ entities will be needed to “uphold the integrity of the chain,” in his view. Indeed, crypto networks generally could be moving in the direction of centralized digital platforms, “maintained by a bunch of people whom you have to trust, but hopefully you can also hold to account if they turn out to be untrustworthy.”Lehdonvirta’s new book, Cloud Empires, published by MIT Press, is in part a meditation on the perishability of ideology and/or good intentions. Its subjects are the 21st century’s massive digital platforms like Amazon, Uber and eBay, among others. Many follow a similar life cycle: Charismatic founders who set out to change the world, guide their enterprises on a dazzling growth path but then crash against a hard wall of reality. They survive this collision, but not always for the better. Subtitled “How digital platforms are overtaking the State and how we can regain control,” the book has an illuminating chapter on Satoshi Nakamoto and the blockchain technology he created: Its origins, adoption, metamorphosis and ultimate realization that cryptographically secured digital networks couldn’t entirely replace “untrustworthy” human authorities on matters of governance. There’s Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, “once hailed as a hero who created an ideal business environment for countless independent merchants,” but who eventually transforms into a digital monopolist, turning on merchants, indeed, “extracting extortionate fees and outright stealing lucrative business lines from them.”Appearing, too, is Uber co-founder Travis Kalanick, initially as a “fierce advocate of free-market solutions,” but he’s later seen fixing fares and regulating the number of cars on the streets. There’s Pierre Omidyar, creator of “the world’s first online reputation system,” who realizes in time that a “bad rep” alone won’t deter malefactors. His enterprise, eBay, evolves “into a central authority that formally regulates its marketplace.” A social order without institutionsAs for Satoshi, blockchain’s elusive pseudonymous founder known to the world principally through a nine-page white paper, “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System,” published in 2008. “Nakamoto was bothered by how people still had to rely on powerful and opaque financial institutions to manage their finances,” writes Lehdonvirta, a professor of economic sociology and digital social research at the Oxford Internet Institute at the University of Oxford. He positions Nakamoto in a line of Digital Age libertarians, beginning with John Barlow, the cyberlibertarian “who dreamed of a virtual society in which order emerged independently of the authority of territorial states.” Nakamoto here is viewed through a political scientist’s lens. Lehdonvirta writes:“Nakamoto was not interested in making the institutions more democratic. Instead, he wanted to resuscitate the Barlowian dream of a digital social order that wouldn’t need such institutions in the first place — no bureaucrats, no politicians who inevitably betrayed their electorates’ trust, no elections rigged by corporations, no corporate overlords. Nakamoto still thought that such a social order could be created with technology — and in particular, with cryptographic technology.”Satoshi wasn’t the first to seek “political liberation” through cryptography. A subculture of “cypherpunks” and “crypto-anarchists” had been propounding that creed for decades, “But after years of work, they still had not succeeded in building viable payment platforms.”Recent: How decentralized exchanges have evolved and why it’s good for usersYet, Satoshi appears to succeed where others failed — at first, anyway. What did he do differently? The short answer: He rotated record-keepers.This revelation may seem underwhelming, especially as crypto miners have been vilified in recent years as would-be monopolists and eco-sinners. But, in Lehdonvirta’s telling, Bitcoin’s miners are really just network administrators, i.e., “record-keepers.” Their job, as originally conceived, was: “To go through recently issued payment instructions, check that they were valid, and collate them into a record known as a block — an official record of transactions that could be used to determine who owned what in the system. Of course, the administrator would not have to check transactions by hand: all the work would be done automatically by the peer-to-peer ‘banking software’ running on their computer.”After about 10 minutes, “the next randomly appointed administrator would take over, double check the previous block of records, and append their own block to it, forming a chain of blocks.”Rotating judges each dayWhat makes this Bitcoin genesis story different — a sort of tour de force, arguably — is the author’s ability to put Satoshi in historical context. Nakamoto was wrestling with a classic governance quandary — “who is guarding the guardians” — one that goes back to the ancient Greeks. The city-state of Athens grappled with this problem 2,600 years ago at the time of Solon the Lawgiver. Lehdonvirta writes, “Instead of trying to make government administrators more trustworthy, he [Solon] took a different approach: he wanted to make trustworthiness matter less.” Solon even had a machine to do this — a piece of ancient Greek technology called a “kleroterion,” or “allotment machine,” was a huge slab of stone with carved slots or matrices that was filled with bronze plates inscribed with the names of Athenian citizens. These were randomly selected each day by bouncing white and black balls:“Using the kleroterion, random people were selected to serve as government administrators in ancient Athens. Magistrates were appointed in this fashion annually. Judges were re-selected every morning.”Cloud Empires compares Nakamoto’s ledger validators with the kleroterion:“The responsibility for checking balances could circulate randomly between users, a little like how administrator posts circulated randomly between citizens in ancient Athens. Where Athenians used the kleroterion to rotate administrators every twenty-four hours, Nakamoto’s scheme used an algorithm to rotate the administrator approximately every ten minutes…”The justification in both instances was to avoid the corruption that inevitably comes with the concentration of power:“Just like in ancient Athens, this constant circulation of responsibility meant that the administration would be extremely difficult to corrupt. […] As long as a majority of the peers remained honest, the platform could maintain orderly records without any single trusted authority. Belief in good intentions was replaced with technological certainty. The problem of trust appeared to be solved.”People remain in charge — still Alas, if only it were so simple. As often happens in Cloud Empires, innovation, good intentions, and high-mindedness travel only so far before they run up against human nature. Here the defining event was The DAO Hack of 2016, “a catastrophe for The DAO and its investors but also for the entire Ethereum platform,” where an unknown attacker drained 3.6 million Ether (ETH) from The DAO project, the world’s first decentralized autonomous organization. The hack was reversed by a hard fork of the Ethereum network. The network basically hit the reset button, excising the ledger’s most recent transactions and resuming where things stood immediately before the attack. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and the network’s core developers held a referendum before this radical step was taken that supported their recommendations, but opponents still maintained that this amounted to changing the rules retroactively.“The crisis revealed how a peer-to-peer blockchain system in the end was never really ‘trustless,’” concludes Lehdonvirta. “The network may have enforced its rules with robotic impartiality, but people were still in charge of making and amending the rules. In this instance, people decided to amend the rules to confiscate a person’s holdings and return them to their previous owners. […] Funds placed in the system were still ultimately entrusted to the care of people, not cryptography. The problem of trust remained unsolved.”According to Lehdonvirta, The DAO hack raised again the “age-old problem of political science that troubled ancient Athenians, too: The authorities protect us, but who will protect us from the authorities? How can we hold power to account?”Resisting autocracyIn an interview with Cointelegraph last week, Lehdonvirta was asked: Given the myriad disappointments chronicled in Cloud Empires, do you see reasons to be hopeful about digital platforms? Is there anything that makes you optimistic?“People are realizing: ‘I’m not living in the libertarian utopia that Barlow and other visionaries in Silicon Valley promised me. I’m actually living in an autocracy,’” Lehdonvirta answered. “People are realizing this and they’ve started to push back.”He provides examples in his book. Andrew Gazdecki, an entrepreneur, bands together with other businesses when trillion-dollar company Apple threatens to close down his enterprise. “And they actually win for themselves the right to continue doing business. And that’s not the only example. We had Etsy sellers in April this year — 30,000 Etsy sellers went on strike” when that marketplace raised transaction fees for its independent sellers by 30%. “People are not taking it,” Lehdonvirta told Cointelegraph.As for the crypto space specifically, “what’s really interesting” is that there are now a “lot of people imagining different ways of organizing society, different ways of organizing the economy,” he said. “Maybe the underlying technology blockchain turns out to be not as useful and not as revolutionary as was originally thought, but they’re still trying to come up with new ways of organizing society,” as through decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), for example. “I mean, does it make that any less valuable? I think people can in some way go even further if they don’t constrain themselves by this sort of a blockchain dogma.”He was asked about the kleroterion and ancient Greece — where did all that come from? As a “fellow” of Oxford University’s Jesus College, Lehdonvirta dines regularly with fellows from many disciplines, including historians and classicists, he explained. One lunch partner was an expert on ancient Greece who also happened to be “super curious about Bitcoin.” “I don’t remember exactly how the kleroterion came up. I found it in my readings somewhere. But basically the connection between Bitcoin and ancient Greece came about because I dine in a college together with experts of ancient Greece.”Recent: What new EU sanctions mean for crypto exchanges and their Russian clientsAs the crypto space evolves, he sees other hybrid types participating, including social scientists like himself. “I think what’s really interesting is that a lot of crypto people are becoming more and more interested in social and political science.” They’re realizing that many systems and projects are failing not because anything is wrong with the technology as such but because the governance has failed. He told Cointelegraph:“Humanity has been developing governance systems for thousands of years. We’ve figured out some things that work and some things that don’t work. So why don’t we build on that in the same way as when we do software development.” Programmers don’t build everything from scratch, from primitives, after all. They use well-known libraries and components to build software. “Why not the same with governance?”All in all, the Finnish-born social scientist seems to think that the intellectual ferment unleashed by Satoshi Nakamoto, 13 years might still evolve into something novel and useful in the organizational and governance sense, even if the technology itself never quite lives up to its high expectations.

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Smart contract-enabled insurance holds promise, but can it be scaled?

A new insurance world is coming where smart contracts replace insurance documents, blockchain “oracles” supplant claim adjusters, and decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) take over traditional insurance carriers. Millions of poor farmers in Africa and Asia will be eligible for coverages like crop insurance too, whereas before, they were too poor and too dispersed to justify the cost of underwriting.That is the vision, anyway, on display in the recent Smartcon 2022, a two-day conference that sought to provide “exclusive insights into the next generation of Web3 innovation.” Subsistence farms, where families basically live off what they grow and almost nothing is left over, account for as much as two-thirds of the developing world’s three billion rural people, according to the United Nations. They almost never qualify for insurance coverage and most probably wouldn’t know what to do if it were offered. “In sub-Saharan Africa, for example, where I grew up in Kenya, insurance is basically unavailable. 3% have access to it, but nobody buys it, basically,” Lemonade Foundation’s Roy Confino explained at the two-day New York City event. The Lemonade Foundation, a nonprofit founded by United States insurer Lemonade, is behind the recent formation of the Lemonade Crypto Climate Coalition, a group that believes “blockchain has the potential to pool that risk together” and “basically solve the core problem that has inhibited the scale of insurance in the developing world for profit services and that is cost,” said Confino at Smartcon 2022. Founding members also include Hanover Re, Avalanche, Chainlink, DAOstack, Etherisc, Pula and Tomorrow.io.Insurance is problematic in poor nations for many reasons. It can’t be easily distributed because there are hardly any local insurance agents or brokers, and historically insurance is “sold,” not “bought.” Also, insurance claims can’t be validated without great expense because, typically, there aren’t any claims adjusters on the scene to make damage assessments. This renders underwriting un-economic.But, it need not necessarily remain that way. Parametric insurance models can potentially cut producer costs by automating many traditional insurance processes, making it profitable to underwrite those previously deemed uninsurable. Sometimes called “index insurance,” these models insure a policyholder against a specific event by paying a set amount based on an event’s magnitude rather than the losses incurred.For example, if rain hasn’t fallen in a certain predetermined region in Kenya for three weeks, a blockchain “oracle” — it could be a local weather station — automatically sends a message to a smart contract that remotely triggers a payout to the policyholding farmer’s smartphone. It bypasses the claims adjustment process entirely. It doesn’t matter whether an individual farmer’s field is damaged. All policyholders in the area are paid. Crop insurance is a good use case for parametric models because many of the forces that can damage crops can be objectively measured, such as rainfall, wind speeds, temperatures and others.Self-executing smart contracts also ensure that payouts for weather disasters and the like are almost immediate, noted Sid Jha, founder and CEO at Arbol — a parametric insurance provider — and this is especially important in the developing world where many farmers live hand to mouth. “You don’t have customers waiting weeks, months who in many cases can go bankrupt waiting for an insurance check,” he said, speaking at a separate Smartcon 2022 session. Recent: NFTs and crypto provide fundraising options for breast cancer awarenessParametric insurance isn’t entirely new; it has been around for several decades. But, blockchain-enabled parametric insurance has just emerged in the last few years. Most, if not all, its use cases are still in the pilot stage. The Coalition, for instance, isn’t expecting to scale up its programs until next year. Many believe that legacy insurance systems could stand some substantial improvement. “Traditional indemnity insurance has many disadvantages: it is slow, bureaucratic, constrained to home damages, and comes with significant uncertainty,” wrote Wharton School associate professor Susanna Berkouwer recently. She described a parametric hurricane insurance product that employs blockchain technology in the Commonwealth of Dominica. NASA-generated hurricane alerts touch off automated international bank transfers to policyholders’ bank accounts. Projects like these are worthy of further study in Berkouwer’s view. Hindrances remain: Will farmers sign up?Supplying the world’s subsistence farmers with affordable crop insurance and possibly other protections via chain-based parametric insurance faces some daunting obstacles, however. One is educating farmers in the complexities of insurance. There is really no way at present that this can be done easily by technology or automation alone. Tinka Koster and her colleagues at the Netherlands’ Wageningen University, for example, recently completed a review of the World Bank Group’s Global Index Insurance Facility’s (GIIF) engagement in Kenya. To increase index insurance take-up rates among African subsistence farmers, GIIF and others would need to boost “awareness, knowledge and understanding by the farmers about the insurance,” said Koster. “The last-mile outreach is a key challenge for many services to smallholder farmers, including index insurance,” Koster told Cointelegraph in emailed responses coordinated with team colleagues Marcel van Asseldonk, Cor Wattel and Haki Pamuk. “Technology can help bridge part of this gap, but technology alone is insufficient.” “Sales and product understanding are huge costs in often remote and difficult to reach places,” Leigh Johnson, assistant professor in the department of geography at the University of Oregon, told Cointelegraph. “Renewal rates are notoriously bad.”“Many farmers need to see that insurance is a tool for managing risk and not for gambling on a certain outcome,” said Jha, who agreed that educating farmers on the need for risk management tools like insurance is critical. As Jha told Cointelegraph:“When farmers are able to get access to some type of subsidized insurance provided by the government or an NGO, they become much more familiar and comfortable with the concept, and that education process becomes easier in terms of providing specialized coverage products that meet the unique needs of farmers.”In GIIF’s Bima Pima product for Kenyan farmers, the World Bank Group program used village-based advisors (VBAs) to help distribute the insurance product — essentially taking the place of traditional insurance agents. The VBAs were paid monthly for their efforts. According to the Wageningen report, these advisers were “happy with the SMS messages and the direct premium payment. But they find it hard to convince farmers and are uncertain about the insurance pay-out because the product is so new.”Does parametric insurance even need DLT technology?If parametric insurance is going to succeed in emerging markets, does it even need blockchain technology? The World Bank Group’s GIIF parametric insurance projects in Africa, for instance, did not use blockchain technology. What exactly does index insurance lose if it doesn’t employ a decentralized digital ledger? “Blockchain is simply a tool,” Jha told Cointelegraph, and one can use many tools to get the same outcome. Still, the digital ledger’s immutability and auditability can build credibility for the program: “What DLT’s do provide is trust in areas that generally tend to lack trust, and allow for possibly a more efficient micro payment system than what currently exists in some of these countries in terms of disbursing and collecting funds.” Johnson, on the other hand, comes down “squarely on the ‘no smart contracts’ camp, precisely because parametric contracts go wrong so often, and there is an important case for correcting these retroactively” in the interests of fairness and equity. In a 2021 article, Johnson noted that environmental estimates made by parametric market devices used to commodify risk “are frequently wrong, sometimes grossly so.” In the first season of R4’s Ethiopian program, “one of the most globally renowned programs insuring smallholder farmers against weather risk using parametric indices,” wrote Johnson, R4 made an ex gratia “voluntary donation” to teff farmers “following rain shortfalls that did not trigger the contract.” Such transfers later became “fairly routine.” “I’m not sure how much information farmers would require re smart contracts/blockchain at the time of enrollment,” Johnson told Cointelegraph, “but one can imagine them being extremely skeptical of unknown monetary technologies and firms.”If blockchain technology could raise farmers’ awareness and knowledge about insurance, added Koster, “then it would also help for further upscaling the index [parametric] insurance in African context.”Still, this all might take some time. Jha was asked how long it might be before agricultural insurance can achieve widespread usage among subsistence farmers in the developing world in places like Southeast Asia or Africa — two years? Five years? Ten years?“Probably ten years,” Jha told Cointelegraph, citing the challenges of education, cost and lack of data, i.e., “everything from a lack of weather stations, crop yield history, and lack of data on farming practices.”Many farmers need to see that insurance is a viable tool for managing risk, and this is where self-executing smart contracts could provide a powerful example. If farmers see their neighbors being reimbursed immediately during an extreme weather event, they might consider purchasing an index policy themselves. Government subsidies could help. “There is a lot of work that is needed in terms of making insurance more affordable so that underserved stakeholders who need these tools can access them,” said Jha, while Johnson added, “I think the best progress will come from wider state adoption of safety net programs using parametric solutions — that’s how you get coverage at scale.” In terms of scaling, the World Bank’s GIIF has already made some progress. “The milestone of one million farmers insured has already been reached in Zambia, with the index insurance bundled with the subsidized fertilizer programme,” Koster said, while in Senegal, GIIF is currently reaching half a million farmers, with a similar number in Kenya with a government-supported program. Recent: Meta’s Web3 hopes face challenge of decentralization and market headwinds“This shows that it is possible to reach significant numbers of smallholder farmers,” Koster told Cointelegraph, “but not without significant government support.” In sum, while parametric insurance models might enable insurance underwriters to pool risks, making it profitable to insure the previously uninsurable, and blockchain-enabled smart contracts can ensure that cash-strapped farmers received payouts during disasters almost immediately, much work still needs to be done in convincing financially unsophisticated and often distrustful farmers to sign up for such programs. Technology alone won’t do the trick, and state entities may need to get involved.

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Is payments giant SWIFT preparing for a blockchain-bound future?

SWIFT is a payments colossus. It operates across more than 200 countries, has 11,000-plus financial institution clients and transmits some 8.4 billion financial messages every year. It is the global leader in cross-border bank-to-bank payments and recently played a key role in the West’s economic sanctions on Russia. That doesn’t mean the Belgium-based cooperative is immune to disruption tremors, however. Critics have long maintained the interbank messaging system, founded in the 1970s, is “old, inflexible, slow, and increasingly prone to cyberattacks.” In May, Mastercard CEO Michael Miebach cast doubt upon SWIFT’s ability to survive the next five years. Meanwhile, it continues to be menaced by a rising tide of blockchain-based payment networks on one side and an expected torrent of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) on the other.But, last week, in a sign that even entrenched legacy financial networks can (possibly) change their stripes, SWIFT confirmed a proof-of-concept project with blockchain oracle provider Chainlink. If all goes well, SWIFT’s bank users could easily access and transfer digital assets on multiple blockchain platforms. Days earlier, SWIFT also announced it was using fintech-firm Symbiont’s enterprise blockchain platform to improve its messaging for corporate events like dividend payments and mergers.These developments raise an intriguing question: Rather than engaging in a zero-sum struggle to the death, are traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi) firms actually converging — i.e., moving toward a common middle ground that includes tokenized assets, DeFi, interoperability and, yes, regulation? Co-opting an existential threat?“All financial goods will move across blockchain networks in the future,” Matthew Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, told Cointelegraph. “It’s not surprising to see legacy firms looking to adopt and/or co-opt a technology that represents a fundamental threat to their existence; in fact, it should be applauded.”Of course, this is just a pilot program. Hougan added, “It’s not like SWIFT got blockchain religion overnight and is converting all their activities to DLT.” But, it’s a start, and for that, the network should be applauded, he suggested. In this rapidly evolving technological world, “there is no place for binary viewpoints that embrace an ‘I win, you lose’ mentality,” especially within its capital markets and finance sector, Mark Smith, CEO and co-founder of Symbiont, told Cointelegraph, further adding:“Ultimately what ends up being the norm is usually a hybrid, and we definitely see a melding unfolding that will borrow from the best that TradFi and DeFi have to offer.” Jonathan Solé, strategy director at SWIFT, speaking at last week’s Smartcon 2022 convention in New York, acknowledged an “undeniable interest” on the part of institutional investors in digital assets “whether these are stablecoins, CBDCs or anything that you can tokenize on the capital markets space” including equities and bonds.Banks and other TradFi institutions are looking to SWIFT to “bridge the gap” between their infrastructure servicers, like exchanges, custodians and clearing houses, “and all of these new blockchains that are going to provide these services” for tokenized assets, he added at a panel titled “Bridging Traditional Finance and DeFi.” The session was moderated by Chainlink CEO Sergey Nazarov, who noted that SWIFT possessed the TradFi world’s “largest private key infrastructure,” adding:“There is no reason to get rid of that private key infrastructure that already securely signs transactions to move around trillions of dollars in value. All of those standards can simply have an addition made to them that says: blockchain stuff.”But, SWIFT “doesn’t necessarily want to build an integration with every single chain on the planet,” added Nazarov, which was why it was exploring Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP) as a way for it “to become interoperable across all blockchain environments.”Stephen Prosperi, head of product management and digital securities management of DTCC, which provides clearance and settlement services for U.S. securities markets — another TradFi heavyweight — seconded this point. Different digital currencies “will live across different chains,” and firms like DTCC don’t want to build separate infrastructure to connect to each of the 100 blockchains that host desirable digital assets. A central point of entry like CCIP could therefore be useful.Are cross-chain bridges secure?The Smartcon panelists didn’t really address some of the challenges associated with cross-chain bridges, however, including security concerns. “Yes, there are security risks with cross-chain projects,” commented Hougan, “which is why you need pilot projects like this.”Cross-chain bridges are designed to solve the problem of interoperability between blockchain platforms. Blockchain networks today — Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and others — are like the railroad systems in the 19th century before track gauge sizes were standardized. Passengers and freight had to be offloaded to another train when incompatible rail lines met. Cross-blockchain bridges are designed to solve these sorts of incompatibilities, but the problem is they appear to be vulnerable to hacks. Some $2 billion has been stolen from bridges in 13 separate heists, according to Chainalysis, most of it this year. Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin, too, red-flagged cross-chain bridges recently, suggesting they can enable 51% network attacks.A key problem seems to be that the “bridges” tend to accumulate large amounts of “locked assets” from different blockchains, some quite obscure and not always built with advanced security features, according to Elliptic’s Cross-Chain Report 2022 released Oct. 4, which noted: “This has made bridges an attractive target for cybercriminals. […] From January to July 2022, $1.2 billion worth of cryptoassets were stolen across eight bridge compromise incidents.”Chainlink presumably believes it will do a better job with security than cross-chain bridges have done in the past. Nazarov said as much in post-Smartcom interviews. “That is what CCIP seeks to solve. And I don’t think it’s an intractable problem. I think it’s a solvable problem,” he told Fortune.Are traditional institutions ready for tokenization?Apart from the need for interoperability, are there other commonalities that are bringing TradFi and blockchain providers closer together? Are the capital markets ready for tokenization, for instance, Nazarov asked panelists.“Well, it’s definitely here. It is not going to go away,” answered Solé. “We have adopted all of our messaging standards so that we can make sure that we can cater for the information that is needed for tokenized assets.” “We’re actually looking at tokenizing all different types of assets internally,” Victor O’Laughlen, managing director and head of enterprise tokenization at Bank of New York Mellon (BNY), told the panel. BNY’s broker-dealer and investment manager clients “don’t want to segregate and manage their assets in different pools. They want to have one client experience.” Another attraction of blockchain-enabled tokenized assets is that they are accessible 24/7. O’Laughlen added:“It’s the infrastructure that always stays up, right? The crypto markets have really pushed the financial markets to think about that. And, we need to be able to support our clients at any time zone, in any location.”Beyond interoperability and tokenization, there was some interest among the TradFi representatives in DeFi projects proper — but with caveats. “If financial services want to go into DeFi mode, there needs to be some sort of regulated DeFi,” said Solé, though some might view that as a contradiction in terms. Prosperi echoed the need for a sort of “permissioned DeFi,” one that had compliance baked in. “At the end of the day, institutions need to feel like they’re not going to get busted on KYC, AML — that they know who they’re transacting with.”BNY Mellon’s O’Laughlen saw some positives with DeFi protocols, though. “DeFi could benefit intraday liquidity, where liquidity is needed to sort of grease the wheels.” Institutions could begin with lending or borrowing assets or cash, as “some of the more vanilla types of [DeFi] transactions that take place between counterparties and financial institutions would be a great first step.”A boost to crypto adoptionFinally, what, if anything, does all this have to do with crypto/blockchain adoption? Ecumenical panel discussions like what occurred at Smartcon are encouraging, but will partnerships like SWIFT-Chainlink really “accelerate the adoption of DLT blockchains and benefit various institutions all over the capital markets,” as Nazarov suggested?“It’s positive news,” Hougan told Cointelegraph. “Every time an entrenched incumbent recognizes that it has to think about the implications of blockchain technology, it makes it easier for the next one to do so. This is another brick in the wall.”“Chainlink has a strong competitive position in providing oracles and trustless data sources, and it grows by integrating those tools into more capital markets and payments networks,” Lex Sokolin, head economist at ConsenSys, told Cointelegraph. “The purposes of blockchains are different and varied. Generally, I do think more integration implies more paths to adoption.”Smith, for his part, sees a “real maturation” of blockchain technology across financial services, viewing it as the “connective tissue” that will make both TradFi and DeFi successful. Blockchain technology was created originally to provide a better bank payment system, and 13 years later, it “continues to become more widely accepted and adopted among banks, asset managers and global markets,” Smith said.

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Does the Ethereum Merge fix a new destination for institutional investors?

Last week’s Merge was the “most significant development in the history of the Ethereum network,” according to Fidelity Digital. And from a purely technical standpoint, the blockchain network’s transition from a proof-of-work (PoW) to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus mechanism was a marvel. Widely compared to changing a jet engine mid-flight, the software upgrade proceeded with nary a glitch on Sept. 15. Overnight, too, Ethereum, the world’s second-largest blockchain platform, reduced its energy usage by 99.95% from a rate as high as 94 TWh per year in May — roughly equivalent to the nation-state Chile — to an almost negligible 0.01 TWh on Sept. 16, according to Digiconomist. This should carry some weight with regulators threatening to clamp down on blockchain networks for environmental profligacy. It could also bring more institutional investors into the crypto space. To this last point: Institutional investors like pension funds, insurance companies, foundations and others matter because they tend to be longer-term investors and are not inclined to trade on rumors or overreact to 24-hour news cycles. Broad participation from this group could help solve crypto’s persistent liquidity and volatility problems. Yet, others believe that while the Merge offers corporations and large financial institutions a more eco-friendly platform, as well as new staking opportunities, it doesn’t yet solve one of Ethereum’s core deficits: its lack of scalability. Not yet, anyway.“The Merge is a watershed moment for the crypto industry, but the impact to accelerate adoption by institutional investors will take more time,” Jim Kyung-Soo Liew, associate professor at Johns Hopkins University’s Carey Business School, told Cointelegraph.“Ethereum does not have a better statement on TPS [transactions per second],” John Peurifoy, co-founder and CEO at Floating Point Group — a trading platform provider — told Cointelegraph. The Merge doesn’t increase block size or block speed. “We’re not there yet.” That will have to wait for the Surge, another Ethereum upgrade scheduled for 2023. That will implement a sharding solution that could boost network speed dramatically. Still, solving the energy consumption problem and reducing carbon emissions are no small achievements. Ethereum’s carbon footprint, once as large as Finland’s, now compares to the Faroe Islands, said Digiconomist. Or, put another way, a single Ethereum transaction is now “equivalent to the carbon footprint of 44 Visa transactions or 3 hours of watching Youtube.”“The bolstering of Ethereum’s environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) credentials should be good for regulatory-driven institutions that want to start to explore the Ethereum ecosystem,” Marc Arjoon, Ethereum Research Analyst at CoinShares, told Cointelegraph, while Jack Neureuter and Daniel Gray, writing in Fidelity Digital’s Report on the Merge, added that the transition to PoS could have “a positive reinforcing effect for those who feel strongly about the environmental impact resulting from the usage of blockchains.”Indeed, two Bank of America analysts recently suggested in a note to clients that some institutional investors who were previously “prohibited” from investing in PoW-generated tokens could now participate:“The significant reduction in energy consumption post-Merge may enable some institutional investors to purchase the tokens that were previously prohibited from purchasing tokens that run on blockchains leveraging proof of work (PoW) consensus mechanisms.”An increased return for Ether holders?The Merge also introduces other potential benefits for traditional financial institutions. “Ethereum’s shift to proof-of-stake makes ether an asset which can earn interest for holders in the form of staking,” noted Fidelity Digital. This could increase the total return for Ether (ETH) holders and “may make the asset more attractive to prospective investors.”“One reason to be excited” if you’re an institutional investor, said Peurifoy, is that you can stake your ETH as a PoS Ethereum validator and receive about a 5% annual percentage yield (APY). “That’s a pretty good rate, and it has relatively low risk associated with it.” Staking could come at a cost, though. In a Sept. 15 article headlined “Ether’s New ‘Staking’ Model Could Draw SEC Attention,” the Wall Street Journal reported that United States SEC chief Gary Gensler recently suggested that Ethereum, with its generous new staking opportunities, could trigger the Howey test — and U.S. courts might declare Ether a security.“Now that Ethereum more closely resembles traditional financial instruments, regulators may start to view it as such,” Arjoon told Cointelegraph. In other words, Ethereum’s new staking opportunities might bring in more traditional investors but also SEC oversight in the United States.Is ETH becoming deflationary?The overall supply of Ether could drop as a result of the Merge, which institutional investors might also view favorably. Pre-Merge Ethereum was paying out, creating about 13,000 ETH a day to reward its PoW miners. After the Merge, the network will pay out about 1,600 ETH a day in staking rewards, a 90% drop in new issuance, according to the Ethereum Foundation. Meanwhile, a portion of Ethereum gas fees continues to be burned or deleted, as they have since August 2021. According to the Foundation:“At an average gas price of at least 16 gwei, at least 1,600 ETH is burned every day, which effectively brings net ETH inflation to zero or less post-merge.”“Many people believe that ETH is becoming deflationary,” Peurifoy said, and now comparing that to the United States dollar, which is declining currently at “a pretty massive rate.” “Supply will not only be capped but even reduced, i.e. deflationary through reduced ETH issuance and increased burns,” noted consultant Markus Hammer, writing on LinkedIn: “ETH might therefore eventually increase in value.”Is a flippening more likely?Bitcoin, the first and largest blockchain network, still uses a PoW consensus mechanism, of course. Could post-Merge institutional investors now favor ETH over Bitcoin (BTC)?“PoS and less energy-use does make Ethereum’s ETH a much more attractive investment than Bitcoin (BTC) from the ESG perspective, but it’s too early to tell if the ‘flippening’ will occur,” said Liew, further adding:“I suspect that the diehard Bitcoin fanatics are not going to sell their positions to move into ETH just because of the Merge.”The new Ethereum software still hasn’t been thoroughly tested at scale either, and the staking rewards come with some strings attached. When institutional investors stake their ETH, it is locked in a contract. “You will not be able to withdraw your staked ether or your rewards […] for at least 6–12 months until after the merge,” Arjoon said. “This inability to withdraw is still a risk that many institutions aren’t willing to onboard and the logistics to navigate around and manage these risks also provide a hurdle for greater adoption.”“The institutional investors will probably take a wait and see approach,” Liew said, adding that if “the overall stock market crashes driven by fears of inflation, then those waiting for institutional investors to come save the crypto industry will be waiting a much longer time.”“The Merge was successful but won’t necessarily mean institutional crypto adoption is on a fast track,” Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda, told Cointelegraph. “The key for widespread adoption will come from future upgrades.” Peurifoy, on the other hand, viewed last week’s events as a defining moment, especially “if we go another week and don’t see any massive forks of Ethereum come out, or technical bugs,” he told Cointelegraph, adding: “How often do you see a decentralized rollout of something that affects millions of users that is done completely live. […] It’s a watershed because of the human collaboration involved, and because we pulled off something like this at scale with so few bugs.”

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