Rising oil prices since the US-Israeli war have been a consistent weight on the price of Ether for the last three months, according to Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee. “If one is wondering why Ethereum has been under selling pressure … to me, rising oil prices is the biggest headwind,” Lee said on X on Monday.Lee said the inverse correlation between Ether prices and oil is at a record high. Crude oil prices have surged 66% from $65 to more than $100 per barrel since the US-Israeli war began on Feb. 28. They spiked again on Monday, with WTI hitting $108 and Brent crude tapping $111, after US President Donald Trump said on Sunday on Truth Social, “the clock is ticking” for Iran to make a deal on opening the Strait of Hormuz. A prolonged war between the US and Iran could weigh further on Ether, which has mostly traded sideways during the period of conflict. The sell-off accelerated over the past week, with the asset declining nearly 10% and falling back to $2,100 Monday, down 57% from its all-time high. Ether and oil inverse correlation at a record high. Source:Fundstrat Fall in oil prices will spell ETH recovery Lee said a reversal in oil prices would result in ETH prices recovering, describing the current situation as “short-term tactical noise.”He said the bigger drivers for Ether are tokenization and agentic AI. “These structural drivers are in place. Thus, we expect ETH prices to be stronger as we move through 2026.”Related: Ethereum Foundation hits ‘Glamsterdam’ milestones, names new protocol leadsEthereum has been the dominant network for real-world asset tokenization, with more than 60% market share when layer-2 networks are included. Meanwhile, major financial institutions such as BlackRock and JPMorgan recently launched tokenized funds on Ethereum. The agentic AI narrative stems from the prediction that AI payment agents cannot access bank accounts, so they will use crypto tokens such as ETH or stablecoins for payments. Ether prices are facing multi-factor pressure However, Ether is also under pressure from other macroeconomic headwinds, as its correlation with risk assets means it gets hit harder during sell-offs. Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at the Bitrue Research Institute, told Cointelegraph on Monday that oil prices were not the only factor impacting Ether, and there was “multi-factor pressure.”“They’re one key macro headwind, but ETH selling pressure is also driven by ETF outflows, rising exchange reserves/whale selling, broader risk-off sentiment, and ETH’s underperformance vs Bitcoin,” he said.Related: ETH stalls at $2.4K five times, SOL to rally to $120: Market Moves

Iran is reportedly considering a plan to exercise control over the Strait of Hormuz through an “insurance-based model,” with some speculating, based on an unverified website, that it could be paid in Bitcoin. On Saturday, Fars News Agency, an Iranian news outlet closely affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reported that the Iranian Ministry of Economic Affairs plans to manage the Strait of Hormuz through insurance, citing a state document it obtained. However, other reports say Iran is looking to take payments for the “insurance” in Bitcoin through a website called “Hormuz Safe,” with a widely circulated screenshot of the purported site selling “Secure Digital Insurance for Maritime Cargo.”Source: Dennis PorterControl over the Strait of Hormuz has been the leading issue in the US-Iran war. The shipping lane handles about one-fifth of the global oil trade. Many ships have been prevented from transiting the strait after the US started launching airstrikes in Iran in late February. Media reports state that Iran collected its first revenue from tolls imposed on ships transiting the Strait last month. Prior to the US-Iran war, no such measures were in place.Fars News said the insurance platform seeks to distinguish between transit vessels from different countries. “Under the Economy Ministry’s plan, managing the Strait through an insurance framework would enable the issuance of various marine insurance policies as well as certificates of financial responsibility,” Fars News said, adding it could generate over $10 billion in revenue for the country.There is no guarantee that Iran will go ahead with the insurance proposal, and the website purporting to offer “Iranian Digital Insurance” could be fake. The website was down at the time of writing. Scammers have previously defrauded shipping companies operating in the Strait of Hormuz by demanding payment in cryptocurrency for safe passage. Description of Hormuz Safe seeking to accept shipper tolls in Bitcoin. Source: GoogleUS authorities recently seized Iranian USDTDemanding insurance payments in Bitcoin could make sense, given that US authorities froze $344 million worth of USDT tied to Iran last month.Earlier reports said Iran had been accepting oil tolls in US dollar-denominated stablecoins such as Tether USDt (USDT), as well as Bitcoin and fiat currencies such as the Chinese yuan, with USDT reportedly the preferred cryptocurrency. Related: UAE investors buy AI dip, keep crypto exposure despite conflict Industry leaders have touted Bitcoin as a more appropriate cryptocurrency for sanctioned countries because it is sufficiently decentralized and has no issuer capable of freezing funds. In early April, a spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union said certain ships would be able to pass through the strait provided that they pay a tariff of $1 per barrel of oil in Bitcoin.“Once the email arrives and Iran completes its assessment, vessels are given a few seconds to pay in Bitcoin, ensuring they can’t be traced or confiscated due to sanctions,” they said at the time.Magazine: Adam Back says current demand is ‘almost’ enough to send Bitcoin to $1M

The US Senate’s crypto market structure bill could take until August to pass and risks not advancing at all if lawmakers cannot pass it before the midterms, said Greg Cipolaro, head of research at financial services firm NYDIG.Patrick Witt, a senior White House crypto adviser, said earlier this month that he was targeting July 4 for the Senate’s crypto bill to pass, saying there was enough time for a Senate markup, floor vote and House vote. “This may represent an aspirational benchmark rather than a fixed legislative deadline,” Cipolaro said in a note on Friday. “The realistic window, however, is June through early August.”The crypto market structure bill would outline how US watchdogs would regulate crypto and is seen as one of the most important pieces of crypto legislation this year. However, it has been marred by delays as lawmakers and lobbyists have sought to add or amend provisions around stablecoins and government officials’ use of crypto, among other issues.The bill passed a long-delayed markup in the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday, which voted largely along party lines to advance it to the Senate floor, where it will need 60 votes to avoid prolonged debate and pass.Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott, pictured at the markup. Source: US SenateRepublicans hold a 53-seat Senate majority and will need at least seven Democrats on board to pass the bill quickly, but some Democrats are concerned that the bill does not go far enough in preventing crime and sanctions evasion.Cipolaro said Congress has a recess from late July to early September and will then return to a period ahead of the midterm elections in November, when Senate leadership “is unlikely to schedule a contested 60-vote floor fight.”“If the bill misses that window, the highest-probability remaining pathway becomes a post-election lame-duck session, available only if Republicans hold the Senate and Majority Leader [John] Thune prioritizes it over government funding deadlines,” he added.Current polling and predictions show a tight race for control of the Senate, with some forecasts showing Republicans with a slight edge, while others put key seats as tossups that could put Democrats in control of the chamber.Cipolaro said that if Democrats gain control of the Senate, the current Republican-backed crypto market structure bill is unlikely to advance in the next Congress when it begins in January.“Congressional negotiators face a tradeoff between accepting an imperfect bipartisan framework in 2026 versus risking a substantially different legislative environment after the midterms.”Cipolaro said that if the bill is passed and signed into law, crypto markets would get a boost as major institutions would be confident enough to invest in the space because of the legal clarity. It would also grant regulatory certainty to Bitcoin, classifying it as a commodity under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and closing “the last significant regulatory overhang for Bitcoin as an institutional asset class,” he added.However, Cipolaro said the bill could fail because of stalled negotiations over provisions regarding ethics or decentralized finance enforcement, or because of scheduling delays, which would mean the crypto industry would continue to operate under “permanent jurisdictional ambiguity.”Magazine: Clarity Act risks repeat of Europe’s mistakes, crypto lawyer warns

Crypto analysts are divided over whether markets will see a major Bitcoin sell-off in May, a pattern that has emerged in the last two bear markets during US mid-term election years. In May 2018, Bitcoin crashed from nearly $10,000 to about $7,000 by the end of the month. It happened again in May 2022, when Bitcoin fell nearly 30% from about $40,000 to $28,500 before falling further in June to $20,000. With 2026 also a bear market year coinciding with a US mid-term election, there are concerns it could happen again. “The most brutal pattern in Bitcoin history. Nobody wants to hear this. But the pattern is perfect. Mid-term election years. Bitcoin dumps. Every time,” crypto analyst Merlijn Enkelaar said on Sunday.Enkelaar said a similar move could see Bitcoin prices collapse to $33,000 despite the advancement of key legislation, the CLARITY Act, positive crypto sentiment from the Trump administration and potential trade deals between the US and China.Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal, also said Sunday that there would be a higher probability of a new capitulation phase if Bitcoin remains under $78,000, with bears “showing signs of strength.”Bitcoin was trading at about $76,900 at the time of writing, down 5.6% over the past seven days.The calendar didn’t cause previous crashes, analyst arguesJeff Ko, chief analyst at the CoinEx exchange, told Cointelegraph on Monday that midterm election years have coincided with major Bitcoin bear markets, “so some traders may be tempted to frame 2026 as another ‘sell in May’ setup.” However, behind that historical seasonality were more concrete macro drivers, such as the Mt. Gox aftermath, China’s ICO crackdown, Fed tightening and the Terra/FTX collapses, he said.“The calendar didn’t cause those drawdowns — specific shocks did.” Related: Bitcoin slides below $79K on macro fears: Can fixed-income outflows save it?Ko said he doesn’t expect BTC to repeat the 70% to 80% drawdowns seen in past cycles because the market structure has fundamentally changed.“Spot ETFs, corporate treasury adoption, and the CLARITY Act moving through Congress have meaningfully broadened and institutionalized the buyer base compared with past cycles,” he added. “In my view, a move toward the mid-$60k or high-$50k range could be defensible under a macro shock or a significant ETF outflow cascade. But a move back to $33k would likely require something genuinely systemic to break, rather than simply a repeat of historical seasonality.”Key support level must hold MN Fund founder Michaël van de Poppe was also bullish, saying on X Sunday that the current Bitcoin price action “doesn’t shout for new lows” but is “consolidating after a run of 40%.”However, an important support level that is currently preventing a larger decline is the $76,000 area, he cautioned. “If that level is lost, I would assume that the markets will see a further downward fall towards lower boundaries,” he said.Trader eyes key support level that must hold. Source: Michaël van de PoppeMagazine: eToro founder timed Bitcoin top perfectly due to belief in 4 year cycles