Bitcoin (BTC) hit week-to-date lows at Tuesday’s Wall Street open as analysis put $65,000 as bulls’ level to beat.Key points:Bitcoin needs to revisit $65,000 for bulls to take charge, says new BTC price analysis.Bear market history continues to play out as BTC/USD loses key supports.Iran peace hopes see oil fall below $88 for the first time this month.Bitcoin price copies bear-market history with support lossesData from TradingView tracked 1.2% BTC price downside on the day as sell-side pressure returned ahead of key US inflation data.A double rejection at $64,200 put BTC/USD on course for another test of the key $60,000 support level.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewCommenting, trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe said that for bulls to gain the upper hand, they would need to crack $65,000.“Bitcoin is stalling beneath $65K as breaking that level would trigger a strong run to $72-74K,” he wrote in one of his latest posts on X. “The $65K support level was the previous level of support after the crash early in February and is now acting as the resistance to break through.”BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/XVan de Poppe called into question the validity of Bitcoin’s latest macro lows, which took the market to $59,100 last week.“I don’t think it will take long before the markets will be doing this, as the recent selloff was relatively irrational,” he added.In an update on the bear market, trader and analyst Rekt Capital flagged two more key similarities between current BTC price action and the road to previous cycle lows.BTC/USD, he noted, had lost both its 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) and the support of a triangle construction — just like in 2018 and 2022.“Now Bitcoin needs to fully confirm this breakdown to enter additional Bearish Acceleration to the downside,” he told X followers.BTC/USD one-month chart with 21, 50 EMA. Source: Rekt Capital/XOil falls to June lows on new Iran peace momentumBitcoin once again diverged from US stocks on the day, heading lower while both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index opened up by nearly 1%.Related: Bitcoin ‘normal’ 4-year cycle puts focus on $53K low before 2028 BTC price highS&P 500 one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThis helped alleviate an initial drop at the start of the week after Asian markets came under pressure from a tech-stock rout.Oil prices, meanwhile, also fell as hopes of a US-Iran peace deal steadily reemerged.“It’ll be a total victory,” US President Donald Trump said in a telerally for Republican Senator Lindsey Graham on Monday, quoted by Al Jazeera and others. “It’ll happen very soon, and oil prices will come tumbling down.”CFDs on US WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewWTI crude dropped under $88 per barrel, reaching its lowest level since May 29.

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls successfully defended the $60,000 psychological support during last week’s 13% correction. BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingViewHowever, the rebound has not fully erased downside risks, with some traders warning that a deeper breakdown remains possible as the US–Iran tensions and fading rate-cut expectations weigh on risk appetite.Several Bitcoin valuation and technical indicators now support that scenario, suggesting BTC could still revisit $50,000 or lower levels in the coming weeks.Key takeaways:Bitcoin trades near its average production cost of $62,650, but risks dropping toward its lower electrical cost of $50,120.Glassnode’s MVRV bands show BTC below its lower valuation zone, with the next deep-value magnet near $50,437.Bitcoin breaks down below average production costOne of the key warning signals comes from the Bitcoin production cost model, which compares BTC’s market price with the estimated average cost of mining one Bitcoin.The model, shared by Capriole Investments Founder Charles Edwards, shows Bitcoin trading near its production cost of around $62,650. That means miners are, on average, close to breaking even at current prices.BTC/USD weekly chart vs. production cost. Source: Capriole InvestmentsThis level has historically acted as an important long-term value zone. During previous bear-market corrections, Bitcoin often found strong demand when the price fell into the band between the production cost and the lower electrical cost estimate.That lower boundary now sits near $50,120, according to the chart.In other words, BTC is already testing the upper end of a major miner-cost support zone. If sellers push the price decisively below the current production-cost area, the next major valuation floor could sit near the electrical-cost level around $50,000.BTC realized price indicator reveals $37,500 bottomBitcoin’s realized price, the average cost basis of all BTC holders, is currently near $53,600, according to the chart shared by analyst Follis.Historically, Bitcoin has not formed a major cycle bottom without first trading below the realized price. BTC fell about 58% below realized price in 2011, 49% in 2015, 47% in 2018, and 34% in 2022.Bitcoin realized price vs. spot price. Source: TradingView/FollisThe drawdowns have become shallower over time, but even a smaller 20%–30% drop below today’s realized price would imply a bottom zone between roughly $37,500 and $42,800.So far, Bitcoin has spent zero days below realized price in this cycle, compared with 179 days in 2022, 140 days in 2018, 303 days in 2015, and 122 days in 2011.Related: BTC price bottom not due until Q4? Five things to know in Bitcoin this weekThat keeps the possibility of a bottom in Q4 2026 in play. A decisive break below $60,000 could send BTC toward realized price near $53,600 first, before opening the door to a deeper capitulation zone below $50,000.Bitcoin MVRV bands suggest price drop $50,000 is plausibleBitcoin’s MVRV pricing bands also point to a possible deeper correction toward $50,000.The model compares BTC’s market price with valuation zones based on how expensive or cheap Bitcoin appears versus its long-term average. Historically, these bands have acted as price magnets during major cycle moves.Bitcoin MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands. Source: GlassnodeIn the 2021 bull market, Bitcoin repeatedly topped near the upper valuation bands. During the 2022 bear market, the price eventually fell through the average band and gravitated toward the lower bands before forming a bottom. A similar pattern appeared again during the 2024 correction, when BTC cooled off toward lower valuation zones before recovering.Now, Bitcoin is trading near $63,000, already below the model’s lower valuation band around $72,035. The next major magnet sits near the deep-value band around $50,000.That level also sits close to Bitcoin’s realized price near $53,600, making the $50,000–$53,600 area a key on-chain support cluster.A decisive break below $60,000 would therefore strengthen the case for BTC to revisit this deep-value zone before attempting a durable bottom.Bitcoin bear flag breakdown keeps $50,000 in playBitcoin’s weekly chart shows a possible bear flag breakdown, with BTC slipping from its rising consolidation range after failing below the 50-week SMA near $91,700.BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingViewThe price is now testing the 200-week SMA near $62,000, a key long-term support. A decisive weekly close below it would confirm the bearish setup and open the door to the measured downside target under $50,000.Weekly relative strength index (RSI) readings near the oversold threshold of 30 also show weak momentum, supporting the view that sellers remain in control unless BTC quickly reclaims the flag support.