Bitcoin (BTC) traders said that BTC holding above the $60,000 psychological support over the weekend was important as it recovered 6.5% from a local low near $59,100 to an intraday high of around $62,950 on Sunday.Key takeaways:BTC is eyeing a rally toward $92,630 if it continues to hold above a key moving-average support.Nasdaq technicals hint at a potential decline of over 10% in the short term. BTC may rise above $90,000 if Nasdaq underperforms Bitcoin’s rebound stood out as the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) plunged more than 4% on Friday, its steepest one-day drop since April 2025. This has raised hopes that risk capital may return to BTC markets.BTC/USD vs. IXIC daily performance chart. Source: TradingViewTechnical commentary shared by veteran analyst Filbfilb offered some hope for the Bitcoin bulls. In a Sunday post, the analyst highlighted Bitcoin holding strong above its 200-week simple moving average (200-week SMA, the blue line) at around $61,880. This level has helped form the bottom in 2020, 2018, and 2015.BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingViewIn other words, traders may view the dip below $60,000 as a shakeout if BTC holds the 200-week SMA, with the 50-week SMA (red) near $92,630 becoming the next major upside target.At the same time, the Nasdaq appears to be correcting toward its 20-week SMA, the green line near 22,905 points, after its weekly relative strength index (RSI) fell to 62.46 from around 74.75.Every major Nasdaq weekly RSI drop from above 70 (overbought) to below 70 since 2021 has led the index back toward its 20-week moving average.IXIC weekly chart. Source: TradingViewThe Nasdaq could fall toward 22,905 if the fractal repeats, implying a further decline of about 10.75% from current levels in June or by July.That said, Bitcoin could be setting up for a sharp mean-reversion rebound if it holds its long-term floor while the Nasdaq continues to cool off.Bitcoin-Nasdaq ratio supports BTC rebound scenarioBitcoin’s ratio against the Nasdaq has again reached a record oversold zone, according to its daily RSI readings.Related: Bitcoin most oversold since 2020 crash: Can BTC rebound to $70K next?On Saturday, the RSI dropped to 14.70, the lowest in history. The previous record was 14.88, set in February, ahead of a 30%-plus recovery in BTC prices.BTC/IXIC vs. BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingViewIn simple terms, Bitcoin had become too cheap relative to the Nasdaq, and buyers stepped in. The same setup is appearing again, reiterating a potential rebound in BTC prices in the coming weeks.

Bitcoin (BTC) threatens to “purge further” as realized losses in the 2026 bear market fail to beat records.Key points:Bitcoin realized losses have not yet surpassed the 2022 total despite market cap being higher.History suggests that a fresh round of capitulation should occur before a bear-market bottom appears.Retail investor conviction is still “remarkably high” despite new macro lows.Bitcoin bear market bottom may need “a few more months”New data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows that investor capitulation has not yet matched the levels of the 2022 bear market.“Realized losses are calculated in USD, so logic would dictate that with similar behavior, USD losses during bear markets should be increasingly significant given that market capitalization keeps growing,” contributor Darkfost wrote in a post on X.Realized losses refer to coins moving onchain at a lower price compared to their previous transaction — a telltale sign that an investor is selling their holdings at a loss.In the 2022 bear market, such realized losses hit $211 billion, marking a new record. This year has yet to beat it, despite the Bitcoin market cap being higher in US dollar terms.“Today, since the October top, approximately $174B in losses have already been realized,” Darkfost continued.Bitcoin bear market realized loss comparison. Source: Darkfost/Xalready differs from past bear markets in terms ofThe result could be that a fresh round of loss-making market exits enters in order for historical patterns to be preserved.“This may suggest that the market could purge further, although this remains fairly subjective,” Darkfost concluded. “If the bear market were to extend a few more months, it is possible that we could surpass the 2023 losses, but for now we have not yet reached that level, even though this bear market is already well advanced.”Retail optimism suggests that the BTC price floor is not in2026 already differs from past bear markets in terms of investor participation.Related: Bitcoin needs one more thing to happen to spark BTC price ‘rally:’ Analysis As trader and commentator Ardi notes, retail investors are attempting to catch a falling knife, entering and exiting while the price keeps falling. Institutions, by contrast, have sold relief bounces, offloading supply onto retail.“Retail has spent months buying every ‘dip’ the market has given them, thinking the bottom was being handed to them on a silver platter. Mid-sized and institutional participants have spent that same period selling into their hopium,” Ardi explained on Sunday. “The people with the least capital are absorbing supply from the people with the most. That is not usually how major bottoms are built.”BTC/USDT one-day char with order-book data. Source: Ardi/XArdi described “remarkably high” conviction among retail traders, which, like realized loss data, casts doubt on current BTC price lows as a reliable bear-market bottom.“Until that dynamic changes, it’s difficult to argue that true capitulation has occurred,” he added.