New research from Galaxy Digital suggests that Bitcoin’s cycle low could form at higher price levels than previous bear markets due to the absence of speculation. The analysis places the potential bottom between $62,000 and the network’s realized price at $53,600.Galaxy head of research Alex Thorn analyzed every Bitcoin cycle top and bottom and noted that the four-year cycle continues to track closely with BTC’s historical timing. The peak-to-trough declines have steadily narrowed across market cycles, falling from 85% and 84% in earlier periods to 77% in 2022 and 51% in 2026. Bitcoin’s four-year cycle peak-trough analysis. Source: Galaxy Research/XThorn argued that Bitcoin’s October 2025 top differed from previous cycle peaks. Only two of eleven traditional topping indicators flashed, while the widely followed Pi Cycle Top indicator failed to trigger for the first time. Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio, which compares market value to realized value, peaked at 2.29, compared with 2.93 to 5.91 in prior cycles. The analyst said, “The key insight: a calm top RAISES the floor. Because October’s top was so muted, the network’s cost basis sits at 43.7% of ATH, vs ~34%, 21%, and 17% in prior cycles.”The report also found that several key bottoming signals are still absent. Only four of thirteen indicators have triggered so far, with most of the stronger signals yet to appear.BTC cycle bottom indicator list. Source: Galaxy Research/XHistorical timing also points to the possibility of a bottom ahead. The previous cycle bottoms formed roughly 12 to 13 months after the market peak, while the current drawdown is about eight months old.Thorn noted that, based on the current cost basis of $53,600, Galaxy estimates a base-case bottom range of $40,000 to $46,000. A deeper “washout scenario” points to $30,000-$37,000, while a shallower decline could hold near $51,000-$54,000. Despite the scenarios, Thorn also warns, “The catch: the floor can move. cost basis is reflexive. in a real panic, coins change hands at a loss and drag the average down. A 10-30% cost basis decline pulls the implied floor from ~$40k back toward $28k.”Bitcoin bottom range based on realized price analysis. Source: Galaxy ResearchRelated: Big Tech crash, oil volatility rattles markets: Will Bitcoin hold above $60K?Bitcoin demand still trends lower: CryptoQuantOnchain analysis from CryptoQuant currently places Bitcoin inside a valuation zone historically associated with major bear-market lows. BTC recently traded near $59,000, leaving it roughly 9% above its realized price of $53,600. Bitcoin value zone based on realized price bands. Source: CryptoQuantPast cycle bottoms, including the November 2022 FTX-driven sell-off, formed at or slightly below the realized price, suggesting the bottom range may again fall below the cost basis of $53,600 and overlap with Galaxy’s base projection between $46,000 and $40,000. Demand data paints a more cautious picture. CryptoQuant reported a combined weekly decline of 652,000 BTC across speculative futures demand and apparent spot demand, marking the sharpest contraction since January 2022. The firm’s one-year demand gauge has also turned negative, signaling fewer BTC buyers than a year ago.Related: Bitcoin surfs SpaceX IPO at $64K as trader warns key BTC price support may crumble

Bitcoin (BTC) is gaining buyers’ interest after setting a new yearly low at $59,000 last week. Order book data and liquidity suggest a rally is pending and more than $2 billion in short liquidity is concentrated near $65,000. BTC’s bid-ask ratio has remained positive since last Friday. The shift in positioning and sentiment also aligns with a bullish chart pattern targeting the $67,000–$70,000 range. BTC bulls attempt to regain control near supportBitcoin’s recent rebound to $63,500 followed a bullish divergence between the price and the relative strength index (RSI) on the four-hour chart. The price printed a lower low during the early-June sell-off while the relative strength index (RSI) formed a higher low. The signal pointed to fading downside momentum before buyers stepped in.BTC/USD, four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewBitcoin is also trading within an ascending triangle pattern. A confirmed breakout may target the daily fair value gap between $67,500 and $70,500, an area of trading imbalance or liquidity gap left behind during the recent market correction. The order book activity supports the move. Data from Hyblock shows the bid-ask ratio remained positive at 0.05 after Bitcoin tagged its yearly low at $59,000 last Friday. The metric tracks aggressive buying and selling activity. A positive reading suggests buy-side market orders have been slightly outpacing sell-side orders.BTC price, bid-ask ratio, spot CVD. Source: HyblockThe cumulative volume delta (CVD) data adds another layer of support. Smaller cohorts (up to $10,000 and $100,000 orders) have shown improving buying activity with $53 million and $157 million, respectively, while the largest participants ($100,000-$10 million) have significantly reduced net selling pressure by $900 million. Crypto analyst Kripto Holder highlighted a $2.68 billion short-liquidity cluster near $64,600, calling it the primary upside liquidity pool. The analyst said Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $63,000 following renewed conflict in the US-Iran war adds weight to the recovery case. Spot CVD inflows also indicate demand from spot buyers.Related: Metaplanet to form securities arm through Siiibo acquisitionBTC needs to reclaim $66,000 soon: AnalystMarket analyst PILTR noted that BTC’s long exposure has gradually increased over the past five days. The current positioning tracks 237 long levels against 128 short levels, creating an estimated $4 billion positive imbalance.Those price levels closely align with analysis from crypto trader Ardi, who argued that Bitcoin is still trading within a bear pennant following its decline from $83,000 to $59,000. The analyst identified $64,000 and $66,000 as the two most important levels for the current recovery.BTC/USD, four-hour analysis by Ardi. Source: XAccording to Ardi, a move above $64,000 would clear both horizontal resistance and the pennant structure, giving Bitcoin additional room to the upside. The next hurdle sits near $66,000, a former major range support level that now acts as resistance. Reclaiming that area would strengthen the case for a move into the liquidity zone above the price and the unfilled fair value gap between $68,000 and $70,000.However, PLTR also flagged weekend positioning as a near-term variable. The analyst noted that weekly profit-taking often creates opposing flows into weekends, especially after a sustained build-up in long exposure. Related: Bitcoin miner ‘capitulation’ comes as trader sees later 2026 bear-market bottom

Bitcoin (BTC) hit $64,000 after Friday’s Wall Street open while analysis warned of “unreliable” BTC price support.Key points:Bitcoin hits local highs during the US trading session as US-Iran peace hopes offer modest risk-asset relief.SpaceX looks set to launch the largest IPO ever witnessed,BTC price concerns linger over the ability of a key trend line to hold as support.Crypto, risk assets “shrug off” inflation headwindsData from TradingView showed BTC/USD retaining gains as crypto and risk-asset markets surfed mixed signals over a US-Iran peace deal.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewAt the time of writing, there was no official information about whether a deal would go ahead, with US President Donald Trump rebutting details from the Iranian side. “What they said, including their weak and pathetic statement on having a deal, bears no relation to the truth,” he wrote in his latest post on Truth Social.Source: Truth SocialStocks opted to tread water at the US open on the day that SpaceX launched the biggest initial public offering (IPO) in history. Shares were slated to debut at $170 — $45 above the initial IPO price.In a fresh analysis, trading resource Mosaic Asset Company said that markets now faced a combination of a strong labor market and high inflation.“While equity markets seemed to shrug off inflation fears and the impact to valuations and monetary policy, better economic data is giving the average stock a reason to rally,” it summarized in its latest Mosaic Chart Alerts update. “While some of the air is being released from the massive rally in AI infrastructure stocks, laggards off the late March lows are turning up recently.”S&P 500 chart data. Source: Mosaic Asset CompanyAs Cointelegraph reported, this week’s US inflation data set new multi-year records on the back of the US-Iran war and its impact on oil prices.BTC price 200-week trend line in focusWhile Bitcoin saw new local highs near $64,000, market participants remained highly cautious on the outlook.Related: Bitcoin miner ‘capitulation’ comes as trader sees later 2026 bear-market bottomTrader and analyst Rekt Capital was suspicious of a long-term trend line holding up price — the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) at $62,025.“Bitcoin is currently treating the 200-week SMA as support. But this SMA has historically proven to be an unreliable support, with price breaking down from it over time,” he warned X followers.BTC/USD one-week chart with 200SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewRekt Capital saw additional friction coming from the fact that BTC/USD had dropped below old all-time highs from 2021.“This deviation below old All Time Highs for Bitcoin tends to take months to fully develop to ultimately form a Bear Market bottom,” he commented.“Though Bitcoin has deviated -14% below old ATHs thus far, this process is still technically ongoing and will be for a while.”BTC/USD one-month chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X